Filecoin’s reflex rally into resistance: Sell the $2.03 re‑test

Summary and 24h view

• Current price: $1.9694 (about +8.3% vs prior close $1.8180). The last daily candle (Nov 20) printed a long lower wick/near-hammer off 1.76, and price is now bouncing into layered resistance just below/around $2.00–$2.06.
• Base case for next 24h: a continuation squeeze toward $2.01–$2.06, followed by supply stepping in and a fade toward $1.90–$1.92, with tail risk for a revisit of $1.85–$1.82 if momentum stalls early. High-velocity continuation through $2.10 is a minority path that would invalidate the short bias.

1. Structure and trend

• Primary trend (since Nov 8): Downtrend of lower highs/lows after a blow-off top on Nov 7 (H $3.88, C $3.36) with exceptionally high volume. Subsequent distribution saw step-downs toward sub-$2.00.
• Market structure: Short-term bounce inside a broader bearish channel. Yesterday’s lower-low (L $1.7597) versus Nov 19 (L $1.7608) produced a marginal undercut and rebound (potential liquidity sweep) that often precedes a corrective pop into resistance.

2. Support/Resistance map (near-term)

• Immediate resistance: $1.99–$2.06 cluster (round number $2.00; 50% retrace of Nov 11–20 swing; proximity to 20-D SMA; classic pivot R2/R3 zone from yesterday’s levels). Above that: $2.19–$2.23 (prior closes Nov 11–12) and $2.35–$2.40.
• Supports: $1.92–$1.90 (intraday shelf), $1.85–$1.82 (yesterday close $1.818), and $1.76 (sweep low). Loss of $1.76 reopens $1.70–$1.66 (BB lower extensions / historical nodes).

3. Moving averages

• 20-D SMA ≈ $2.06 (computed from last 20 closes ~2.063). Price currently below the 20-SMA, typical of bear-market rallies magnetizing into the mean before rejection.
• 50-D SMA likely higher (~$2.20+ given pre-pump regime), adding overhead supply. 8/21-EMA stack likely bearish (8 < 21), signaling rallies should be sold unless reclaimed decisively.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): After an extended slide under 50, today’s bounce likely lifts RSI toward mid-40s/near-50. Not a trend reversal, but consistent with a countertrend pop.
• Stochastic: Oversold cross-up supports a short-term lift, but in downtrends these crosses often stall into resistance bands.
• MACD: Below zero with waning negative histogram—early inflection, consistent with a tactical push higher before trend resumes.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR context: 14-D ATR is inflated by the Nov 7 spike (~0.44). A more relevant 7–10 day realized range has compressed toward ~0.20–0.28. A $0.10–$0.18 intraday extension from current levels is plausible, placing $2.02–$2.06 well within reach, but a sustained move beyond $2.10 needs a regime change (news/impulse).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With SMA ~ $2.06 and widened bands post-spike, price is rebounding from lower band area toward the mid-band; that mid-band often caps first bounces in a downtrend.

6. Candles and pattern cues

• Nov 20 hammer-type candle off $1.76 suggests short-term dip exhaustion and invites a corrective bounce day. Today’s gap-up continuation aligns with a 1–2 day mean reversion setup.
• Likely intraday pattern: Bear-flag / rising channel into resistance with supply between $2.00–$2.06.

7. Fibonacci confluence (recent swing)

• Measured from Nov 11 swing high ($2.226) to Nov 20 low ($1.760):
  • 38.2%: ~$1.94 (already cleared)
  • 50%: ~$1.993
  • 61.8%: ~$2.048
• The 50–61.8% retrace overlaps the $2.00 round number and the 20-SMA (~$2.06): a high-probability sell zone.

8. Pivots (based on Nov 20 H/L/C)

• P ≈ $1.825
• R1 ≈ $1.891, R2 ≈ $1.964, R3 ≈ $2.029
• Price is testing/above R2 and likely to attempt R3 (~$2.03). Classic behavior is initial resistance at R2/R3, particularly in downtrends absent fresh catalysts.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume has normalized from the Nov 7–8 extremes (billions) to hundreds of millions. The bounce is on moderate volume—constructive for a reflexive move, but not suggestive of trend reversal. OBV remains net-down since Nov 8.
• Volume profile: Heavy prior trading around $1.95–$2.05 and $2.20–$2.40. Expect supply to reload in the $2.00–$2.06 pocket before price can test $2.20.

10. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Cloud, Tenkan, and Kijun (likely near/above $2.05–$2.15). Bearish state. First test of Kijun/Tenkan commonly rejects in this configuration.

11. Mean reversion and regression

• Linear regression channel (post Nov 8): Price hugging lower half; current reversion toward the midline aligns near $2.02–$2.06.

12. Liquidity/flow considerations

• There is a cluster of stop liquidity above $1.98–$2.00 from recent shorts. A quick run to $2.02–$2.06 to sweep these stops, followed by supply absorption, is a typical sequence.

13. Elliott-wave framing (heuristic)

• Post blow-off: A (dump) – B (bounce) – C (grind down). Yesterday’s sweep low could be a minor v of C within a larger corrective leg; the present rally looks like a wave-iv style pop toward the 0.5–0.618 retrace before a v-down continuation. Tactical short fits this mapping.

14. Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• 55–60%: Pop to $2.02–$2.06, rejection, fade to $1.90–$1.92, possibly $1.86–$1.85 on momentum loss.
• 25–30%: Stronger squeeze through $2.06 to $2.10, then stall near $2.12–$2.15 (20–21 EMA/Kijun region) before deciding.
• 10–15%: Immediate failure under $1.95 with a straight drift back to $1.88–$1.84 without tagging $2.02.

15. Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Sell rallies into the $2.02–$2.06 confluence.
• Entry: Limit around $2.03 (pivot R3, 50–61.8% swing retrace zone, round-number magnet).
• Target: $1.89 (above $1.85–$1.82 support cluster; within expected daily range; aligns with yesterday’s R1 and intraday shelf).
• Invalidation/stop (not required but prudent): $2.11–$2.12 (clean break above 61.8% and 20-SMA continuation), yielding ~0.08–0.09 risk for ~0.14 profit ≈ 1.6–1.8 R.

Conclusion

• The multi-tool read converges on a countertrend rally into a dense resistance band, favoring a Sell-the-pop setup. Expectation: tag $2.02–$2.06 then fade toward $1.90±. A decisive hold above $2.10 would invalidate and force reassessment toward $2.15–$2.23.