FLR Coils Above 38.2%: Dip-Buy Setup Targeting R1 Near 0.0270

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis and 24-hour outlook for FLR/USD

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily trend: Since the 9/25 swing low at ~0.02349, FLR has made a sequence of higher lows: 0.02349 (9/25) → 0.02508 (intraday 9/30) while maintaining closes mostly above 0.025 since 9/26. Highs progressed 0.02635 (9/28) → 0.02663 (9/29). This is a constructive uptrend after the 9/24 spike to 0.02847 and the 9/25 shakeout.
• Current position vs key levels: Current price 0.02547 is sitting almost exactly on the 38.2% retracement of the 9/25–9/24 swing (see Fib section), and just under the daily S1 pivot for today, indicating we are testing support within an uptrend.
• Intraday (hourly): Price has oscillated between ~0.0262 and ~0.0251 today, with a morning fade to 0.0251 and a modest recovery. The intraday structure shows a potential higher low vs. that 0.0251 dip if 0.0252–0.0253 holds. Immediate resistance stack sits at 0.02598 (50% retrace) and 0.02657 (61.8%).

2. Moving averages alignment

• 7-D SMA ≈ 0.02576: Price slightly below, signaling a near-term pullback within the uptrend.
• 14-D SMA ≈ 0.02497 and 20-D SMA ≈ 0.02444: Price is above both, indicating the intermediate trend remains bullish.
• Implication: A classic “buy-the-dip into the rising 14/20-SMA” context. Minor momentum cooled vs. the 7-SMA but broader bias is up.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, est.): Mid-to-high 50s after the 9/24 peak; not overbought and supportive of further upside if resistance breaks.
• RSI (hourly, est.): Low-to-mid 40s post-dip, attempting to turn up. Room to travel higher before overbought conditions.
• Stochastics (intraday, qualitative): Recently cycled down and beginning to curl. Favors a bounce attempt if support holds.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD line is above zero after the recent advance; histogram has cooled since 9/24 but has not signaled a bearish cross. Momentum is positive but not frothy; the setup supports a continuation push if buyers reclaim 0.0260–0.0266.
• Hourly MACD: Flattening after the early-day drawdown, consistent with basing behavior.

5. Volatility and ATR

• 14-day ATR estimated around 0.0011–0.0014. A 24-hour expected move from 0.0255 suggests a typical range of ~0.0244–0.0269. That aligns closely with pivot-derived levels (S2 ~0.02471, R1 ~0.02698).
• Implication: A test of the upper band near ~0.027 is achievable within a normal volatility day if momentum returns.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• With 20-D SMA near 0.02444, current price sits above the mid-band. The bands are moderately expanded from the 9/24 surge and subsequent consolidation. Trading above the mid-band favors dip-buys; not near the upper band, so there’s headroom.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A (9/24 high → 9/25 low): 0.02847 → 0.02349. Key retraces from the low: • 38.2%: ~0.02540 • 50%: ~0.02598 • 61.8%: ~0.02657
• Price is oscillating around 38.2% and has repeatedly probed the 50–61.8% zone. Reclaiming and closing above 0.02598 opens a path to 0.02657 and then the prior close-pivot 0.02725.
• Extensions (from 0.02508 low of 9/30 using the 9/25→9/29 upswing): A 1.0x retest is ~0.02663; a 1.272–1.618 extension would project 0.0279–0.0302 (more ambitious; likely beyond 24 hours unless momentum accelerates).

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above the cloud baseline area given the recent rally. Tenkan likely above Kijun or coiling nearby; with price above cloud/midlines, bias remains constructive. A Tenkan/Kijun recross higher would add confirmation on a push through 0.0266.

9. Volume, OBV, participation

• Volume spiked on 9/24’s breakout, then normalized. Pullback days were on lower volume relative to the breakout, a positive sign (no heavy distribution). Recent recovery to mid-0.026s occurred on improving participation vs. the trough.
• OBV (qualitative): Should be trending higher from mid-September, in line with higher highs and higher lows; no glaring distribution signal in the pullback.

10. Pivot points and VWAP

• Using 9/29 H/L/C (0.026635/0.025237/0.026449), today’s classical pivots: • P ≈ 0.026107 • R1 ≈ 0.026977 • S1 ≈ 0.025579 • R2 ≈ 0.027505 • S2 ≈ 0.024709
• Current price is marginally below S1; a quick reclaim of 0.02558–0.02562 would be a tactical buy trigger toward P and R1.
• Intraday VWAP (rough estimate) is around 0.0256. Trading back above VWAP would likely attract momentum buyers, pushing toward the 0.02598–0.02657 resistance stack.

11. Candlestick reads

• Daily: The 9/29 candle closed near highs, 9/30 currently an inside-to-small red day holding above Friday’s close cluster. Structure resembles a bull flag/day of digestion after a 4-day climb from 0.0236 to 0.0266.
• Hourly: Several small-bodied candles with lower shadows near 0.0251–0.0253 suggest demand absorption on dips; no aggressive bearish follow-through after the morning fade.

12. Elliott wave micro (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 0.02349 → 0.02663, Wave 2: 0.02663 → 0.02508. If Wave 3 is underway, a conservative target is a retest of 0.02663 with potential to 0.0273–0.0275 (R2/pivot confluence) in 24–48 hours. The 1.618 extension into ~0.030 is a stretch goal not required for this trade.

13. Key levels and confluences

• Support: 0.02510–0.02520 (intraday shelf, today’s low 0.02508), then 0.02470–0.02495 (S2 and prior daily support zone).
• Resistance: 0.02558–0.02562 (S1 reclaim + VWAP), 0.02598 (50% Fib), 0.02657–0.02665 (61.8% + prior peak region), 0.02698–0.02725 (R1 + 9/24 close pivot), and 0.02750 (R2).
• Strong confluence: 0.02695–0.02705 aligns with R1 and just under the late-September pivot highs, making it a pragmatic 24-hour take-profit zone.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip probe into 0.0252–0.0253, followed by a VWAP reclaim above 0.0256, grind through 0.02598 toward 0.02657, spike into 0.0269–0.0270 (R1). Close near 0.0265–0.0268.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong momentum day; quick reclaim and break of 0.02657 leads to an R1→R2 move, tapping 0.0273–0.0275. Stretch test of 0.0277 possible on volume expansion.
• Bear risk (20%): Failure to reclaim 0.0256 with repeated rejections at 0.02598; a slip below 0.0251 opens a drive to 0.0247–0.0249 (S2/prior support). This would not break the larger uptrend unless 0.0244 gives way, but it would invalidate a near-term long.

15. Trade plan and risk management

• Bias: Buy the dip within an uptrend while price holds above 0.0251 and reclaims VWAP/0.0256. Target the R1 zone where multiple tools converge.
• Entry strategy: Place a buy limit near 0.02520 to align with intraday shelf and improve risk-reward. Alternatively, a momentum add can be placed on a clean 0.02598–0.02600 breakout, but the primary single entry chosen for this plan is the dip-buy.
• Target: 0.02695 (R1 cluster, just shy of 0.0270). This captures the expected daily range upper bound without requiring a full breakout.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of final order fields, but crucial): Below 0.02459 (beneath S2/prior daily support), or tighter beneath 0.02495 if you prefer higher R:R with a smaller position. From 0.02520 entry to 0.02459 stop is ~0.00061 risk; to 0.02695 target is ~0.00175 reward, giving roughly 1:2.9 R:R.

Synthesis and conclusion

• Multiple independent tools (trend MAs, Fib, pivots, VWAP, RSI/MACD, structure) point to a constructive setup for a continuation push after a controlled pullback to the 38.2% zone. The most probable 24-hour path is a consolidation-to-rebound into the 0.0266–0.0270 band. Therefore, the optimal tactical approach is Buy on a dip into 0.0252 with a take-profit near 0.02695.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 0.0247–0.0270
• Likely path: Stabilize 0.0252–0.0254 → reclaim 0.0256 VWAP → test 0.02598 and 0.02657 → tag 0.0269–0.0270. Failure path risks a test of 0.0249–0.0247 support.