FLR poised for a VWAP reclaim bounce off the 50% retracement: targeting 0.0251 within 24 hours

Flare (FLR) – multi-timeframe, indicator-rich technical read, next-24h path, and trade plan

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Medium-term uptrend from early September (lows ~0.0200–0.0207) to the late-September spike (high 0.02847 on 2025-09-24), followed by a corrective pullback. Since 2025-09-29, a sequence of lower highs formed: 0.02645 (9/29), 0.02648 (10/1), 0.02590 (10/2), 0.02498 (10/3), 0.02472 intraday (10/5). Short-term trend is corrective/down within a larger uptrend.
• Current position: 0.02410 sits on a well-traveled demand shelf 0.0240–0.0242 (multi-touch support: 10/04 low 0.02399; 10/05 intraday lows 0.02409–0.02412) that previously acted as a pivot zone.
• Key supports: S1 0.02400–0.02420, S2 0.02355–0.02370 (clustered with late-Sep closes 0.02359–0.02361), S3 0.02278–0.02286.
• Key resistances: R1 0.02445–0.02472 (intraday supply and VWAP/mid-band confluence), R2 0.02500–0.02520 (psychological and fib confluence), R3 0.02580–0.02600 (prior distribution top), R4 0.02645–0.02655.
• Liquidity mapping: Obvious resting liquidity below 0.02400 and above 0.02470/0.02500. A sweep-and-reverse pattern is likely around these handles.

2. Range, volatility, and statistical context

• Daily ATR (visual approximation from recent ranges) ~0.0010–0.0014. Today’s realized range has been muted, implying compressed intraday vol and potential expansion next.
• 1H volatility: Bollinger bandwidth compressed across most sessions on 10/05; Keltner vs Bollinger suggests a squeeze regime. Compressions typically precede directional expansion within 12–24h.
• Expected 24h envelope: Baseline ±ATR from 0.02410 implies 0.0231–0.0251. With expansion, topside tail risk extends into 0.0252–0.0255 (if R1 gives way decisively).

3. Moving averages (multi-timeframe, qualitative)

• Daily 20SMA/EMA: Price is hovering around/below the 20-day mean after a multi-week up-leg. This is consistent with a mid-trend pullback rather than a trend reversal (50/200-day still below price, judging by the trajectory of the recent run-up).
• 4H/1H MAs: On 1H, price is slightly under the short MAs and the session VWAP, but the slope has flattened; a reclaim turn often sparks a quick mean reversion back into R1.
• Takeaway: Near-term bearish drift, but MAs are close enough for a reclaim; not a stretched sell.

4. Fibonacci analysis (two anchorings for robustness)

• Swing A: Low 0.01999 (9/04) to high 0.02847 (9/24): • 38.2% = ~0.02523 • 50% = ~0.02423 • 61.8% = ~0.02323 Current sits just below the 50% (0.02423) – a classic decision level.
• Swing B (slightly higher low anchor ~0.02045): • 38.2% ≈ 0.02541 • 50% ≈ 0.02446 • 61.8% ≈ 0.02352 Market has respected the 61.8% band (0.0235–0.0236) as a reactionary floor in late September, and it is oscillating between 50% and 61.8%. Current price is straddling the 50% zone from the first anchor and just under the 50% from the second. Confluence supports a mean-reversion bounce attempt from 0.0240–0.0243 toward 0.0247–0.0252.

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• Daily: Price near/just below mid-band after the corrective downswing; lower band sits near 0.0233–0.0235. Room exists to revert to the mid/upper band if buyers reclaim R1.
• 1H: Bands contracted for most of the day; a squeeze is forming. Price hugging the lower/mid band with quick mean reversion tags has been the pattern. An upside band expansion is plausible if 0.02445 is reclaimed; failure opens a band walk toward 0.0238–0.0236.

6. Momentum oscillators

• RSI: Daily RSI likely mid-40s to low-50s given the pullback; 1H RSI shows mild bullish divergence (10/04 low 0.02399 vs. 10/05 higher low ~0.02409 with RSI flattening/upticking). Divergence at support favors a bounce scenario.
• Stoch/RSI: Intraday reads indicate reset near lower bounds, beginning to curl up; favorable for a short-term long as long as 0.0240 holds.
• CCI/ROC/Williams %R: All suggest near-term exhaustion to the downside on low-vol compression; directional bias awaits trigger via R1 reclaim.

7. MACD/Signal

• Daily MACD rolling over toward the zero-line after the September thrust; histogram contraction suggests the sell momentum has been easing. A hold of 0.0240–0.0242 would allow a shallow bullish cross on lower timeframes.
• 1H MACD: Negative but flattening; a push above 0.02445–0.02450 should flip the histogram positive and invite momentum flows.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely above/near the Kumo base recalling the recent uptrend; Tenkan below Kijun or converging – neutral to modestly corrective. A flat Kijun around 0.0244–0.0246 tends to attract price (magnet effect).
• 1H/4H: Price below cloud earlier with a thin or flattening Senkou; a cloud twist or edge-to-edge move becomes viable on a clean R1 reclaim. Confluence with VWAP strengthens this view.

9. Volume, VWAP, and volume profile

• Volume: Post-spike (9/24–25) deceleration; recent sessions show lighter participation, except for intraday bursts. That usually favors mean reversion over trend continuation unless a catalyst re-accelerates volume.
• Intraday VWAP: Today’s VWAP is estimated around 0.02435–0.02445 given the distribution; price is below it now. Reclaiming VWAP often unlocks a quick move to R1 and above.
• VPVR/HVNs: Heavy nodes near 0.0243–0.0246 and 0.0236–0.0238; low-volume pocket 0.0252–0.0260. If price can push >0.0247, it may traverse swiftly to the 0.0250–0.0252 pocket and possibly wick into 0.0254–0.0256 before mean-reverting.

10. Candle pattern & microstructure

• Daily: Small-bodied corrective candles with lower wicks into 0.0240 show dip absorption. No strong bearish engulfing at support; sellers lack follow-through.
• Hourly today: Multiple tight-bodied candles around 0.02415–0.02445 indicate compression. A single larger green candle through 0.02445 could break the range.

11. Advanced PA lenses (ICT/SMC, harmonics)

• Liquidity sweeps: A quick probe below 0.02400 to harvest stops is plausible before the real move. Watch for a sharp reclaim back above 0.0241–0.0242 as the long trigger.
• Order blocks: 0.02355–0.02370 appears as a prior demand block created during the late-Sept bounce; deeper test only if 0.0240 fails cleanly.
• Fair Value Gaps (1H/4H): Modest inefficiencies exist toward 0.0247–0.0250 from a prior down leg; filling those aligns with the bounce target.
• Harmonics: An AB=CD style completion is near 0.0240–0.0241 (D-leg symmetry), consistent with a tactical long.

12. ADX/Trend quality

• ADX on intraday looks subdued (weak trend). In a low ADX regime, mean-reversion trades at key levels generally outperform chasing.

13. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Impulse from ~0.020 to 0.0285, followed by an ABC corrective sequence likely terminating around the 50–61.8% retracement cluster. That cluster spans 0.0232–0.0245 by different anchors; current price is right in it. A corrective end implies a bounce attempt toward prior minor wave pivots at 0.0247–0.0252.

14. Synthesis and next-24h path

• Bull case (primary, ~60%): Price either (i) briefly dips to sweep 0.0240 stops, then reclaims 0.0242, or (ii) directly grinds through 0.02445 VWAP/mid-band. Once 0.02445–0.02450 is accepted on 15–60m closes, momentum extension into 0.02490–0.02520 is favored. In a stronger tape, a wick into 0.02530–0.02550 can occur before mean reversion.
• Bear case (secondary, ~40%): Failure to reclaim 0.02445 and a decisive 1H close <0.0240 exposes 0.02370 first, then 0.02355–0.02360, with stretch to 0.02320–0.02330 only if volume expands on the breakdown. Given vol compression and demand reaction at 0.0240, this is the less likely immediate path.
• Probabilistic range for the next 24h: 0.02360–0.02510 baseline; topside extension to 0.02520–0.02540 if R1 flips.

15. Trade plan logic (tactical long)

• Rationale: Confluence of (a) major fib 50% zone, (b) multi-touch demand 0.0240–0.0242, (c) intraday BB/Keltner squeeze implying move pending, (d) intraday bullish momentum divergences, and (e) VWAP magnet above. Risk is well-defined below 0.0240.
• Execution preference: Staggered entry within 0.02400–0.02410 (limit bias). Confirmation adds if 0.02445–0.02450 breaks on volume. First objective 0.02495–0.02520. If tape is heavy, abandon on clean break/reject below 0.02390–0.02395.
• Timeframe fit: 12–24h swing/short-term trade.

16. Prediction summary for the next 24 hours

• Base path: Early test/sweep of 0.02400–0.02405, rebound to reclaim 0.02445, push to 0.02495–0.02520, then consolidate. Odds of a wick into 0.02530–0.02540 if momentum and volume pick up after VWAP reclaim.

Conclusion: Bias = Buy (Long). Optimal open near 0.02406 to exploit the support shelf; target 0.02512 within 24h as the first logical take-profit into resistance and ATR bounds.