FLR at the fulcrum: Pivot-and-Fib confluence sets up a mean-reversion long

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis for FLR (next 24 hours)

1. Market context and structure

• Timeframes assessed: Daily (primary), Hourly (execution), with intraday pivot checks.
• Current price: 0.0243311, essentially sitting on the daily pivot calculated from 2025-10-05.
• Structure: From the 2025-09-19 swing low (≈0.02316) to the 2025-10-01 swing high (≈0.02648), FLR advanced, then retraced deeply into the 61.8% Fibonacci zone and is now basing around 0.0242–0.0244. Higher-timeframe uptrend remains technically intact above 0.0236–0.0239, but near-term momentum has cooled.

2. Trend and moving averages

• SMA20 (daily): ≈0.02499 (avg of last 20 closes). Price is ≈2.6% below, signaling mild short-term mean-reversion potential upward toward the mid-band.
• SMA50 (daily): ≈0.0246 (approx). Price is just below, indicating the late-September up-leg has corrected into the MA ribbon; this is a common retest area after an impulse.
• MA alignment: Price < SMA20 and ~SMA50, suggesting a neutral-to-mildly bearish near-term, but with an attractive potential for reversion if buyers defend 0.02415–0.02433.
• Linear regression slope: Medium-term positive since mid-September; short-term slope has flattened/downturned over the last week.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated mid-40s (≈44–46). Not oversold; room to bounce without overextension.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: Momentum cooled since the Oct 1 high; MACD line has likely slipped beneath signal or is near a bearish crossover. This implies upside bounces should be treated as tactical rather than trend-continuation unless price reclaims key resistances (0.0248–0.0252+).
• Stochastic (14,3) daily and hourly: Hourly shows a likely bullish crossover from near-oversold territory after a double-dip into 0.02415–0.02421. This favors a short-term pop if 0.02435–0.02440 is reclaimed with volume.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline ≈0.02499; lower band ≈0.0226–0.0228 (est.). Price is below midline but comfortably above the lower band—setup favors mean reversion back toward the midline on a successful pivot hold.
• ATR(14) daily: ≈0.0011–0.0013. Expect a typical 24h range of ~±0.0012 (~5%). This anchors take-profit and stop sizing.

5. Volume/flow

• Daily volume peaked around late September (breakout to 0.02725) and has since normalized. Recent pullback occurred on moderate volume—not capitulation. On Balance Volume likely drifting lower since Oct 1 but not collapsing, consistent with a corrective phase rather than trend reversal.
• Hourly tape: Tight range 0.02416–0.02465 with modest lumps of activity. Liquidity fine for tactical setups; breakout conditions are possible after this compression.

6. Key levels and confluences

• Fibonacci retracement (Sep 19 low 0.02316 to Oct 1 high 0.02648): • 38.2% ≈ 0.02521 • 50% ≈ 0.02482 • 61.8% ≈ 0.02443 Price is hovering just under the 61.8% (0.02443). Regaining and holding above 0.02443 is constructive and points to 0.02482 then 0.02521.
• Classic pivots (from 2025-10-05 H=0.024727, L=0.024084, C=0.024177): • Pivot P ≈ 0.024329 (current price ≈ P) • R1 ≈ 0.024575 • R2 ≈ 0.024972 • S1 ≈ 0.023932 • S2 ≈ 0.023687 The market is oscillating around P. Typical play: above P favors a push to R1, then R2; below P favors a drift to S1/S2.
• Support zones: 0.02420 (recent daily low), 0.02395–0.02400 (pivot/S1 confluence), 0.02360, 0.02316.
• Resistance zones: 0.02457 (R1), 0.02480–0.02485 (50% fib), 0.02521 (38.2% fib), 0.0256–0.0261 (higher band/EMA clusters), 0.02645–0.02655.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Tenkan (9): ≈0.02537
• Kijun (26): ≈0.02478
• Senkou A (cloud mid): ≈0.02507
• Senkou B: ≈0.02445 Price ≈0.02433 is slightly below the cloud lower edge (~0.02445) and below Tenkan/Kijun, a near-term bearish tilt. A swift reclaim of 0.02445–0.02480 would flip this into a neutral/constructive look and often sparks a mean reversion toward the Kijun/Tenkan.

8. Patterns and setups

• Descending channel/bull flag from Oct 1 high into the present: Deep 61.8% pullback with tightening hourly range—classic coiled spring characteristics.
• Double bottom attempt: 0.02421 (Oct 4) and an intraday dip toward 0.02415 (Oct 6 hour). Hourly momentum divergence suggests buy-the-dip potential if 0.02415–0.02420 holds.
• VWAP (today): ≈0.02433–0.02435; current price sits near VWAP—breaks above VWAP with volume can fuel a push into R1.

9. Probabilistic 24h path

• Base case (slight bullish bias, 55%): Hold above pivot 0.02433, reclaim 0.02443 (61.8% fib) and press to 0.02457 (R1). If momentum sustains, extension to 0.02482 (50% fib) and stretch target 0.02521 (38.2% fib). Expected high window: 0.0250–0.0253.
• Bear case (45%): Lose pivot and 0.02420 support; drift to 0.02393 (S1). If risk-off persists, wick toward 0.02369 (S2). Expected low window: 0.0237–0.0240.
• Expected 24h range from ATR: roughly 0.0239–0.0255, skewed by pivot dynamics.

10. Risk management and trade plan

• Long thesis: Buy near the daily pivot with tight invalidation below the recent basing area to capture a mean reversion toward the 20-day mid-band and fib confluence.
• Entry: 0.02430 (limit near pivot P=0.02433 to slightly improve R:R)
• Invalidation (stop, not part of the required fields but critical): 0.02388 (below S1 and 78.6% fib ≈0.02388), avoiding noise while protecting capital. Risk ≈0.00042.
• Targets: First objective 0.02457 (R1). Main take-profit 0.02520 (38.2% fib and within 1× ATR). Reward from entry ≈0.00090. R:R ≈ 2.1:1 to main TP.
• Add-ons: If price closes an hourly candle above 0.02482, a momentum add can target 0.02520–0.02535; otherwise, trail stops under rising hourly swing-lows.

11. What invalidates the long quickly

• An hourly close below 0.02415 and especially a daily close below 0.02393 would increase probability of continuation toward 0.02369 and 0.02316, negating the mean-reversion setup.

Bottom line

• FLR is sitting at a highly actionable confluence: daily pivot ≈0.02433 and just beneath the 61.8% retracement (0.02443). Despite a soft MACD, hourly momentum and compression favor a tactical long for a push into 0.02457 → 0.02482 → 0.02520, provided 0.02415–0.02420 holds.

Prediction next 24 hours

• Bias: Mildly bullish toward 0.0248–0.0252 if above 0.02433/0.02443 early in the session.
• Expected range: 0.0239 to 0.0255.

Note: This is a technical view, not financial advice. Manage risk and size appropriately, given crypto volatility.