FLR Capitulation Flush Sets Up a 24h Mean-Reversion Bounce: Buying 0.0188 for a Push to ~0.0205

Executive summary

• Context: Flare (FLR) printed a capitulation-style down day on 2025-10-10 (high 0.022868, low 0.015799, close 0.019595) with a pronounced lower wick and heavy volume. The following session (intraday 10/11) drifted lower toward 0.01890 on declining intraday momentum, currently 0.01890349.
• Bias for next 24h: Short-term mean-reversion bounce is favored after a volatility shock and Bollinger Band breach, with pivotal magnet levels above (daily pivot ~0.01942, 38.2% Fib retrace ~0.02064). A retest or brief undercut to 0.0185–0.0188 support is possible before turning higher.
• Trade stance: Buy the dip near 0.0188 aiming for a rebound toward 0.0205–0.0206 within 24h; invalidate on sustained breaks below 0.0180–0.0177.

Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily): From the late-September impulse high (0.02847 on 9/24), price began a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows into early October, rolling from ~0.0265 to sub-0.024 and then breaking 0.022–0.021 support, culminating in a capitulation low at 0.015799 on 10/10. Structure remains bearish medium-term, but the 10/10 candle exhibits a potential selling climax (long lower shadow, close off lows).
• Intraday (hourly 10/10–10/11): After the flush, price staged a recovery to ~0.0199–0.0203 and then compressed sideways to slightly lower through 10/11, making a series of marginal lower highs while holding the 0.0189–0.0191 shelf. This looks like a secondary test in Wyckoff terms after the initial selling climax.

Key support and resistance

• Immediate supports: 0.01890–0.01895 (current intraday shelf), 0.01850 (local demand pocket), 0.01813 (7/16 close), 0.01784–0.01744 (7/17–7/14 zone), 0.01580 (capitulation low).
• Overhead resistances: 0.01942 (daily pivot from 10/10), 0.01970–0.01990 (hourly supply block), 0.02064 (38.2% retrace of 9/24→10/10 swing), 0.02113–0.02127, 0.02223 (breakdown level), 0.02304 (R1 pivot), 0.02340–0.02395 (prior acceptance).

Candlestick and pattern read

• 10/10 daily hammer-like bar: Long lower wick suggests responsive buying emerged near 0.016–0.017 after an aggressive liquidation. Confirmation requires a follow-through close above 0.0197–0.0199; current session has not given full confirmation but has not taken out 0.0158 either.
• Intraday 10/11: Slow drift down toward prior shelf rather than impulsive sell; suggests supply is easing. This setup often precedes a bounce to test the nearest pivot/VWAP zones.

Moving averages (daily)

• SMA20/EMA20: Estimated mid-0.024s for the 20-day mean (given prior closes ~0.023–0.026 and the recent drop). Price is ~20% below the 20-day baseline, indicating an extended downside deviation.
• EMA8/EMA12/EMA26: Short EMAs have rolled over sharply into the low 0.022s, with MACD spread widening (see MACD section). This flags a bearish medium-term regime, but extreme distance from the fast EMAs increases odds of mean reversion.
• Conclusion: Trend down, but extended; ripe for a counter-trend bounce toward 0.0194–0.0206 before medium-term sellers likely reassert.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (14) daily: With a drop from ~0.024 to ~0.0196 and an intraday spike to 0.0158, daily RSI is likely in the high-20s to low-30s (oversold/near-oversold). Oversold plus capitulation supports bounce odds.
• RSI (hourly): After the flush rebound, RSI likely oscillated in the 30–45 band during 10/11; shallow pullbacks against a flattening RSI can precede a pop to the 50–55 area (which typically aligns with a price push to the hourly 50/100 EMA and daily pivot zones).
• Stochastic: Likely embedded in oversold on daily, curling on hourly; a cross up from low territory supports a short-term relief rally.

MACD and trend strength

• Daily MACD: Below zero with a widening histogram through early October; momentum is still negative. However, a one- to two-session histogram contraction is common after a capitulation print, supporting a dead-cat bounce toward the signal line.
• Hourly MACD: Likely near zero after the intraday compression; a small bullish crossover on regain of 0.0194–0.0195 could fuel a push to 0.0199–0.0203.

Volatility: ATR, Bollinger, Keltner

• ATR(14) daily: Expanded materially due to the 10/10 range (H-L ~0.00707). Even excluding the outlier, recent daily ranges have been ~0.0018–0.0025; expect a wide next session range (8–12% of price).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: The 20-day mid likely ~0.0244; lower band approximately near ~0.0198. Current price ~0.0189 is marginally below/breaching the lower band, a classic mean-reversion signal. A snapback toward the band/mid-band magnet (first to lower band, then toward mid if momentum builds) is typical.
• Keltner Channels: Price sits near or below the -2 ATR channel, signaling short-term exhaustion and supporting bounce probability.

Fibonacci and pivots (key calculations)

• Swing measured: 9/24 high 0.028470 to 10/10 low 0.015799; range = 0.012671.
  • 23.6%: 0.015799 + 0.002991 ≈ 0.018790 (very close to current price; expect reaction here).
  • 38.2%: 0.015799 + 0.004840 ≈ 0.020639.
  • 50%: 0.015799 + 0.006336 ≈ 0.022135. These align with visible intraday and historical supply (0.019–0.0206–0.0221).
• Daily pivot (Classic) for 10/10: P = (H+L+C)/3 = (0.022868 + 0.015799 + 0.019595)/3 ≈ 0.019421. R1 ≈ 0.023042; S1 ≈ 0.015973; R2 ≈ 0.026490; S2 ≈ 0.012352. Current price is below P but above S1; a common path is reversion to P on the next session after a big range bar.

Volume, OBV, and VWAP context

• Volume spike: 10/10 printed 34.1M+; 10/11 already shows heavy turnover. Climax volume plus a long lower wick often marks a selling climax/automatic rally sequence.
• OBV (qualitative): Stepped down with September-to-October selloff; the latest spike can represent transfer of weak to strong hands.
• VWAP magnets: Intraday VWAP likely coalesced near 0.0195–0.0197 through 10/11. A reclaim and hold above VWAP typically opens a test of the 0.0199–0.0203 supply and then 0.0206.

Ichimoku overview (daily)

• Price far below the cloud; conversion (Tenkan) likely ~0.022–0.0225; base (Kijun) higher. This implies strong overhead resistance on rallies; however, the gap to Tenkan/Base lines is stretched, favoring a snapback attempt toward the Tenkan on a 1–3 day horizon. For 24h, Tenkan proximity may cap near ~0.0206–0.0213.

Wyckoff lens

• Selling Climax (SC) at 0.0158; Automatic Rally (AR) into ~0.0200; Secondary Test (ST) in progress around 0.0189. If ST holds above SC and absorbs supply, the next phase is a rally back to test the AR high (~0.0200–0.0203) and often overshoots toward 0.0206.

Hourly microstructure

• 10/11 hourly highs faded from ~0.01987 to ~0.01935 and then to ~0.01897; however, declines were more grinding than impulsive, with lower volumes and smaller candles versus 10/10. This is consistent with seller exhaustion and positioning for a bounce if 0.0188–0.0189 holds.

Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Hold 0.0188–0.0190, reclaim VWAP/pivot 0.0194–0.0195, run to 0.0199–0.0203, and extend toward 0.0206 (38.2% Fib). Range expectation: 0.0185–0.0207 with settlement near 0.0201–0.0204.
• Bearish extension (25%): Brief liquidity sweep to 0.0183–0.0177 before sharp rebound to ~0.0195. Would still favor buying dips unless 0.0175 fails.
• Bearish trend continuation (15%): Sustained loss of 0.0175 leads to a retest of 0.0158; this would invalidate the bounce thesis for the 24h window.

Risk management and R:R framing

• Proposed entry: 0.0188 (slightly below current to capture a dip into the 23.6% Fib zone).
• Take profit: 0.0205–0.0206 (confluence of hourly supply, daily pivot magnet overshoot, 38.2% Fib).
• Notional stop (for planning): 0.0177 (sub ST shelf but above SC), yielding approx R:R ≈ (0.02055−0.01880)/(0.01880−0.01770) ≈ 1.6.
• Position sizing should account for elevated ATR; slippage risk is higher on weekends.

Confluence summary (why a bounce is likely)

• Bollinger breach below lower band + Keltner -2ATR: short-term exhaustion.
• Fibonacci 23.6% level at ~0.01879 is being tested; next magnet 38.2% at ~0.02064.
• Daily pivot below current range (0.01942) often acts as a near-term magnet post-capitulation.
• Wyckoff SC–AR–ST progression consistent with current tape.
• Hourly grind lower with diminishing momentum/volume versus prior day’s shock.

What would invalidate

• Clean hourly acceptance below 0.0180–0.0177 with rising volume would negate the mean-reversion setup and open risk back to 0.0158.

24-hour price map (probabilistic)

• Likely intraday low: 0.0185–0.0187 (liquidity dip risk to 0.0177 if sellers press).
• Likely intraday high: 0.0204–0.0208 if pivot is reclaimed.
• Expected settle zone: 0.0199–0.0203.

Trade plan takeaway

• Action: Buy weakness into 0.0188 with a take-profit target near 0.0205 (front-running the 0.02064 Fib/overhead supply). If the dip does not fill but price reclaims 0.0195 with momentum, a breakout entry is also viable toward 0.0206; however, the optimal quoted open price here is the dip buy.

Note: This is a technical view over a 24-hour horizon focused on probability, not certainty. Manage risk accordingly, especially given weekend liquidity and elevated ATR.