Flare Price Analysis Powered by AI

FLR post-capitulation bounce: targeting 0.0211 on a tactical long within a broader downtrend

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for Flare (FLR) – next 24 hours

Overview and market context

Instrument: Flare (FLR)
Current price: 0.020324
Timeframes analyzed: Daily (Jul 15 – Oct 12), Intraday hourly (Oct 11–12)
Regime shift: A sharp selloff on 2025-10-10 (low 0.015799, high 0.022868, close 0.019595) with elevated volume signaled a selling climax/capitulation. Since then, price is stabilizing and has started a corrective bounce.

Price action and structure

Daily trend: From the late-Sep swing high (0.02847 on 9/24), FLR has trended down, breaking successive supports and printing lower highs/lows into 10/10’s capitulation day. Post-climax, a basing process is visible with 10/11 and 10/12 showing stabilization and early rebound.
Intraday (hourly) trend: Clear micro uptrend on 10/12 with higher lows around 0.01912 → 0.01927 → 0.01945 and higher highs 0.01998 → 0.02016 → 0.02032, indicating buyers gradually taking control. A minor breakout above the 0.0200–0.02016 shelf has held so far.
Support/resistance (near-term):
- Supports: 0.01910–0.01930 (hourly base), 0.01940–0.01960 (10/10 close 0.019595; 10/11 close 0.019398), 0.01990–0.02000 (Fib 38.2% from 10/01→10/10; prior intraday cap now likely support), 0.02016 (hourly breakout level).
- Resistances: 0.02045, 0.02055 (pivot R2), 0.02066 (61.8% retrace of 10/08→10/10), 0.02085, 0.02118–0.02120 (pivot R3 / 50% retrace of 10/01→10/10), 0.02153.

Classical indicators

Simple moving averages (SMAs):
- 5D SMA ≈ 0.02095; price (0.02032) is slightly below but approaching a potential bullish recapture.
- 10D SMA ≈ 0.02259; price is ~10% below, consistent with a broader downtrend.
- 20D SMA ≈ 0.02417; price is ~16% below, highlighting how extended the recent selloff was and leaving mean-reversion potential on bounces.
- Read-through: Trend remains down on higher timeframes, but the distance from 10D/20D favors a corrective upswing over 24h.
EMA/MACD (directional momentum):
- With price well below the likely 12/26 EMAs, MACD remains negative; however, hourly momentum has turned up and daily downside momentum is waning post-climax. Expect histogram contraction and potential signal-line convergence over the next sessions as price rebounds.
RSI (14D):
- Approximate RSI ≈ 19–20 (oversold). The rebound on 10/12 nudges RSI upward, often preceding a multi-candle corrective bounce after a capitulation day.
Stochastics (14,3):
- Using 10/10 low (0.015799) and recent 14D high (~0.026635), %K ≈ 42% and %D ≈ 37%, with %K crossing above %D from a deeply oversold region—bullish for a 24–48h relief rally.
Bollinger Bands (20,2):
- 20D mid ≈ 0.02417; lower band likely around ~0.0195–0.0197 given recent volatility. 10/10 close kissed the lower band; 10/11 slipped marginally below; 10/12 re-entered the bands—a classic mean-reversion tell. Base-case magnet is toward the lower-middle of the bands (0.0209–0.0213) within 24h.

Ichimoku snapshot (approximate)

Price < Cloud; Tenkan (9-period mid) likely ~0.0215–0.0220; Kijun (26-period mid) ~0.024–0.025. In downtrends, first corrective target is often the Tenkan. This suggests room to rise into the low 0.022s over a few sessions; within 24h, a move toward 0.0210–0.0212 is more probable.

Fibonacci and measured moves

Fib retracement (10/01 high 0.026551 → 10/10 low 0.015799):
- 38.2%: ~0.01991 (recently reclaimed)
- 50%: ~0.02118
- 61.8%: ~0.02244
- Read: As long as 0.0199 holds, next magnet is ~0.0212; above that opens ~0.0224, but the latter is ambitious for a 24h horizon.
Fib retracement (10/08 high 0.023677 → 10/10 low 0.015799):
- 50%: ~0.01974 (reclaimed)
- 61.8%: ~0.02067 (aligns with local resistance cluster)
Range breakout measured move (hourly): 0.01912–0.01995 (range height ~0.00083); breakout above 0.01995 projects ~0.02078, aligning with first resistance zone and Bollinger lower-mid area.

Pivots (based on 10/11 OHLC)

P ≈ 0.019345; R1 ≈ 0.019974 (cleared); R2 ≈ 0.02055; R3 ≈ 0.02118. These levels align tightly with Fib and historical price memory, reinforcing the 0.02055 and 0.02118 landmarks.

Volume and participation

10/10 saw capitulation volume (34.1M vs typical <15M), with subsequent days showing elevated but declining volume—classic for a bottoming attempt. Intraday 10/12 shows steady interest as price grinds above likely session VWAP, signaling dip-buying.

Pattern and candle analysis

10/10 printed a large lower shadow (capitulation/hammer-like behavior albeit a red close)—often the anchor of a swing low.
10/11 was a small-bodied day (indecision/doji-like) within the prior range.
10/12 (so far) is a constructive green follow-through day, confirming buyers stepping in.

Elliott wave micro take (heuristic)

From 10/10 low, wave 1 impulsed into ~0.0199, wave 2 retraced toward ~0.0194, wave 3 is in progress aiming toward ~0.0206–0.0208, followed by a shallow wave 4 pullback (perhaps to ~0.0201–0.0202), and wave 5 extension could tag ~0.0209–0.0212. This sequencing aligns with the pivot/Fib confluence.

Confluence summary (24h outlook)

Bullish factors: Deeply oversold RSI, Stoch %K>%D from oversold, re-entry into Bollinger bands, intraday higher lows/higher highs, reclaimed 0.0199 (38.2% Fib), approaching 5D SMA, post-capitulation buy-the-dip behavior.
Bearish overhang: Price still well below 10D/20D SMAs; broader trend is down; overhead resistance dense between 0.02055–0.02150.
Base case: A continued corrective bounce targeting 0.0206–0.0209, with extension risk to ~0.0211–0.0212 if momentum persists.
Bear case: Failure back below 0.0200/0.0199 would re-expose 0.0194 and potentially 0.0191; under 0.0191 risks a deeper retest toward 0.0187–0.0179 (less likely in next 24h absent fresh shock).

Risk management and execution plan

Trade bias (24h): Tactical long for a relief rally.
Optimal entry: Pullback-to-retest zone at 0.02016–0.02022 (prior intraday cap turned support), placing a limit around 0.02020 to maximize risk/reward while acknowledging momentum.
Stop-loss (suggested): Below 0.01948 (under the 10/10 close and beneath the 0.0195 shelf) to avoid noise while protecting capital. Risk from 0.02020 to 0.01948 ≈ 0.00072 (≈3.6%).
Take-profit (24h target): 0.02110–0.02120 cluster (pivot R3 and 50% Fib). Using 0.02112 yields reward ≈ 0.00092 (≈4.6%), R:R ≈ 1.3.
Scaling option: Partial at 0.02068–0.02075 (61.8% of 10/08→10/10 and measured move target), remainder toward 0.02112.

Probability-weighted scenarios (next 24h)

Conclusion

The weight of evidence favors a short-term bounce continuation after a clear capitulation day, but within a larger downtrend. A tactical long with a tight-but-not-too-tight stop and a take-profit near the 0.0211 area is justified for the next 24 hours.