FLR poised for a snapback: Oversold, lower-band tag, and pivot magnet set up a tactical bounce

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Short-term bounce likely from oversold conditions, within a broader downtrend. Expect range 0.0182–0.0199, with magnet levels at 0.01960 (pivot retest) and 0.01988 (38.2% Fib). Plan: tactical long into first resistance, tight risk controls below 0.01832.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Clear sequence of lower highs/lows since late September. Breakdowns from the 0.026–0.027 zone (Sep 24 spike failed) led to an acceleration lower. Oct 10 posted a capitulation-type day (high 0.02287, low 0.01580, close 0.01960) with very high volume, followed by a 2-session relief (to 0.02062) that failed and rolled over. Current close/last print 0.01866 is near the lower end of the recent range, but still above the flash-crash low (0.01580).
• Intraday (hourly, Oct 15): A wide 18:00 UTC expansion candle (0.01898–0.01968) attracted supply; subsequent hours made incremental lower lows on shrinking volume (19:00 ~189k, 20:00 ~278k), suggesting waning sell pressure at new lows. Current low print 0.01866 marginally under prior hours but not impulsive.
• Structure take: Short-term basing attempt above 0.0184–0.0186, with risk of a liquidity sweep into 0.0183. Above 0.0193/0.0196, momentum into 0.0199–0.0201 can unfold quickly.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 5D SMA/EMA (approx): ~0.0196–0.0197; price 0.01866 is below.
• 10D SMA (approx): near 0.0210; 20D SMA: ~0.0233–0.0238; 50D SMA: ~0.0235–0.0245.
• Message: Price is below all short/medium MAs; broader trend bearish. However, short-term mean-reversion setups are attractive when price sits >2 standard deviations below 20D mean.

3. Momentum oscillators

• 14D RSI (approx): ~12 (extremely oversold). Computation based on last 14 daily changes shows losses overwhelmingly exceeding gains. This increases bounce probability in the next 24h.
• Stochastic (14) (approx, using recent 14D high 0.02655/low 0.01580): %K ~27%. Not deeply oversold on that full window, but on a shorter lookback it’s sub-20 during today’s session. Combined with RSI, risk-reward favors a rebound attempt.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: Deeply negative, histogram still below zero; trend momentum remains down. On the hourly, histogram has been less negative as price made marginal new lows on lighter volume, a subtle positive divergence.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): 20D mean ~0.0235; estimated lower band ~0.0189 (given elevated post-crash volatility). Current price 0.01866 is fractionally below/at the lower band—classic mean-reversion zone. Bandwidth expanded after Oct 10 and has begun to tuck in; a short-term bounce to mid/lower band retests is common.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.0016–0.0018 after including the Oct 10 shock. Implies an expected 24h move of roughly ±0.0016 from spot. From 0.01866, that projects 0.0170–0.0203 as a 1-ATR envelope.

5. Fibonacci and levels

• Swing measured: Oct 1 high 0.02648 to Oct 10 low 0.01580 (range 0.01068).
  • 23.6%: 0.01832
  • 38.2%: 0.01988
  • 50%: 0.02114
  • 61.8%: 0.02240
  • 78.6%: 0.02419
• After the crash, the rebound stalled below 50% (0.02114) at 0.02062, then rolled over. Price now sits just above 23.6% (0.01832). Losing 0.01832 increases risk of a slide toward 0.0175 (S2 pivot) and the capitulation low 0.0158. Holding above 0.0183 sets up a revert toward 0.0196/0.0199.

6. Support/resistance map

• Immediate support: 0.01866 (current), 0.01840 (daily S1), 0.01832 (23.6% Fib), 0.01748 (daily S2), 0.01580 (capitulation low).
• Near resistance: 0.01930 (hourly supply), 0.01960 (prior close/pivot magnet), 0.01988 (38.2% Fib), 0.02062 (recent rebound high), 0.02114 (50% Fib).
• Volume/VPVR context: Heavy participation near the 0.023–0.026 pocket from September; locally, the 0.0194–0.0199 band has seen repeated tests and should act as a near-term magnet on bounces.

7. Pivots (classic, derived from Oct 14 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.019607
• S1 ≈ 0.018399
• R1 ≈ 0.020523
• S2 ≈ 0.017483
• R2 ≈ 0.021731
• Read: Spot is between S1 and P; mean reversion to P (0.01961) is a reasonable first target if S1 holds. A wick through S1 (0.01840) to sweep liquidity and quick reclaim often precedes pushes into P.

8. Volume, OBV, and tape

• Oct 10’s massive volume looks like capitulation; subsequent sessions’ bounce on lower volume implies weak follow-through, but today’s lower-low attempts are printing on lighter intraday volume, signalling seller fatigue at the margin.
• OBV (qualitative) remains depressed post-crash; we don’t yet have a confirmed accumulation turn, so treat longs as tactical.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is below cloud; Tenkan and Kijun overhead (likely ~0.0199–0.0206 band). Lagging span below price and past candles. This confirms trend bearish; however, first resistance aligns neatly with 0.0199–0.0206—consistent with our targets.

10. Wyckoff/structural lens

• After a selling climax (SC) on Oct 10 and automatic rally (AR) into Oct 13, today’s action resembles a secondary test (ST) of demand in the 0.0183–0.0187 area. A higher low on lighter volume would be constructive; a decisive break under 0.01832 would invalidate and shift to markdown continuation.

11. Probability-weighted 24h view

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 0.0183–0.0186, bounce to 0.0193/0.0196, extension into 0.0198–0.0199 if momentum improves. Catalyst: oversold RSI + lower Bollinger tag + pivot magnet.
• Bear case (≈30%): Liquidity sweep below 0.01832 toward 0.0175; weak demand leads to drift back to 0.0180–0.0182 by close of window.
• Bull extension (≈10%): Strong reclaim above 0.0199 and test of 0.0205–0.0206 (R1 / recent swing supply) if broader crypto risk recovers.

12. Trade plan (tactical mean reversion)

• Rationale: Extreme short-term oversold (RSI ~12), price probing/below lower Bollinger, intraday seller exhaustion, and proximity to Fibonacci 23.6% support increase the odds of a rebound toward the daily pivot region. The broader trend is down, so aim for a quick, disciplined long into nearby resistance, not a swing hold.
• Entry method: Use a limit buy slightly below spot to capture a likely liquidity dip. Ideal entry zone: 0.01845–0.01855; a conservative single-price anchor: 0.01850.
• Take profit: First objective 0.01960 (pivot), second 0.01988 (38.2% Fib). For a single target, 0.01988 captures the full expected move while remaining within 1 ATR.
• Invalidation (not requested but prudent): A firm break and hourly close below 0.01832 undermines the setup; next supports 0.01748 and 0.01580. Stops in the 0.01815–0.01825 band keep R:R > 2:1 versus a 0.01985–0.0200 target from 0.01850.

13. Confluence summary

• Bullish for bounce: 14D RSI ~12; price at/below lower BB; intraday volume fading on lower lows; proximity to 23.6% Fib; pivot S1 just beneath.
• Bearish headwinds: Price under all key MAs and below Ichimoku cloud; MACD negative; broader downtrend intact; OBV not yet confirming accumulation.
• Net: Favor a tactical long with tight risk; target the 0.0196–0.0199 zone in next 24h.

Bottom line

• Next 24 hours: Expect a bounce toward 0.0196 first; if momentum sustains, 0.01985–0.01990 is achievable. Failure to hold 0.01832 turns the outlook bearish with 0.0175/0.0158 in play.