FLR coiling under the 38.2% wall: buy the dip for a mean‑reversion pop

FLR | Multi-timeframe Technical Playbook (next 24 hours)

Executive snapshot

• Regime: Primary downtrend on the daily; short-term rebound fading into a tight intraday consolidation.
• Bias (24h): Range-to-upside mean reversion favored if 0.01320–0.01336 support holds; otherwise a quick flush to 0.01305–0.01310 before buyers step in.
• Plan: Buy the dip into support with a target back to overhead supply near the 38.2% retracement zone.

1. Structure, trend and momentum

• Market structure (Daily): A clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the Oct 10 breakdown. A local base formed Nov 21–22 (0.01262 → 0.01232). Subsequent relief bounce stalled below the 38.2% retracement, preserving the larger downtrend but establishing a near-term floor.
• Market structure (Hourly): Tight, overlapping price action with lower intraday highs (0.01375 → 0.01342) and a well-defined intraday support shelf around 0.01336. This is classic coil/compression after a two-day bounce—often a precursor to a mean-reversion attempt.
• Moving averages: • SMA(5) ≈ 0.01305; SMA(10) ≈ 0.01332; SMA(20) ≈ 0.01425 (approx). Price is above SMA(5) and SMA(10) but below SMA(20). Interpretation: short-term recovery inside a broader downtrend; space exists for a push toward the 20-day mean if support holds. • The 50-day is materially higher (contextual estimate ~0.02), confirming the dominant bearish regime.
• RSI(14) Daily ≈ 31–32: recovering from oversold, now just below neutral. This is consistent with a continuation of mean reversion attempts rather than immediate capitulation.
• MACD (Daily): Likely below zero with a flattening/contracting histogram after the bounce—early turn signal, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

2. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 0.01425; estimated lower band ≈ 0.01205; upper ≈ 0.01645 (approx). Price rebounded off the lower band and is working toward the midline. Room remains to mean-revert upward, but the midline will act as resistance.
• ATR(14) (Daily, approx): ~0.0006–0.0008. Implies typical 24h swings of 4–6% within the current regime; take-profit and stop levels should respect this.

3. Fibonacci and key levels

• Swing: Nov 10 high 0.01664 → Nov 22 low 0.01232; Δ ≈ 0.00433 • 38.2%: ≈ 0.01397 (recent rejection zone) • 50%: ≈ 0.01448 (aligns with Tenkan/near-term MA cluster) • 61.8%: ≈ 0.01499
• Interpretation: The bounce topped near 0.01388–0.01397 (just shy of 38.2%), then pulled back to 0.01336–0.01342. A successful retest of 0.01320–0.01336 opens another attempt toward 0.01385–0.01397.

4. Support/Resistance map

• Supports: 0.01336 (intraday shelf), 0.01320–0.01325 (dip-bid zone), 0.01305 (SMA5 area), 0.01262/0.01232 (swing lows; strong daily demand).
• Resistances: 0.01360 (neckline retest), 0.01375 (hourly supply), 0.01385–0.01397 (38.2% Fib cluster), 0.01426 (daily pivot from Nov 15–16), 0.01456 (Nov 13 pivot), 0.01448–0.01450 (50% Fib/Tenkan confluence).

5. Volume, breadth, and confirmation

• Volume: The Nov 21–22 lows printed with elevated volume, then the bounce advanced on lighter participation. That’s typical of early base-building but lacks breakout-quality conviction. For the next 24h, expect range trading unless volume expands through 0.01375–0.01397.
• Intraday tape: Hourly bars show contained ranges and compressing highs—momentum is neutral-to-soft but not decisively negative.

6. Ichimoku lens (Daily, approximate)

• Price below cloud; Kijun (26-period midpoint) well above price; Tenkan (9-period midpoint) estimated around 0.0144–0.0145. A push to 0.0139–0.0145 is plausible as a Tenkan test in a corrective up-leg, but the broader cloud headwinds persist.

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Micro double-bottom Nov 21–22, neckline ~0.01360. Break and hold above 0.01360/0.01375 would project to the 0.01395–0.01405 area (in confluence with 38.2% Fib). Current price sits just beneath the neckline after a minor fade—ideal for a buy-the-dip attempt if support holds.
• Channel: Price oscillates within a falling daily channel; current location is below midline, implying room for a corrective pop toward the midline before the larger trend reasserts.

8. Scenario analysis (24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Support 0.01320–0.01336 holds → grind higher to 0.01360 → probe 0.01375 → tag 0.01385–0.01395 (first major supply/Fib). Mean-reversion dynamics + RSI recovery support this.
• Bear case (30%): 0.01336 fails decisively → quick slide to 0.01310–0.01305 (SMA5) → responsive buying emerges; limited follow-through below 0.0130 unless broad risk deteriorates.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong bid + volume expansion through 0.01397 → test 0.01426; stretch goal 0.01445–0.01450 (50% retrace/Tenkan). Lower probability without a volume surge.

9. Trade plan and execution details

• Strategy: Buy the dip into 0.01320–0.01330 to capture a mean-reversion push toward the 38.2% zone. Avoid chasing strength under 0.01375; let price come to the bid.
• Entry: Limit near 0.01325–0.01330 (below current 0.01342, above intraday shelf).
• Take-profit: 0.01385 (front-run the 0.01397 Fib and the 0.01388 local high to improve fill probability).
• Risk context (not required but prudent): A protective stop below 0.01295 (under the SMA5/round-number and above the 0.01262–0.01232 base) yields R:R ≈ 2:1 with the 0.01325→0.01385 target.
• Invalidations: A firm hourly close below 0.01310 or a heavy-volume breakdown through 0.01300 would postpone the mean-reversion and shift bias to a deeper retest of 0.01262/0.01232.

10. Why Buy vs Sell here?

• Pros for Buy: Daily RSI recovering from oversold; price above short MAs (5/10) with room to the 20-day mean; bounce off lower Bollinger band; intraday coil over a defined shelf; nearby supports offer attractive asymmetric entry.
• Cons for Buy: Primary downtrend intact; 38.2% Fib rejection is a headwind; volume on the bounce is light. Hence use a dip entry and conservative first target (0.01385) instead of chasing.
• Short setup exists (sell 0.01360–0.01370 to 0.01310), but given RSI inflection and the proximity of supports, the long-with-dip entry offers a cleaner R:R and mean-reversion edge over the next 24 hours.

Bottom line

• Expect chop with upward bias if 0.01320–0.01336 holds. The highest-probability path is a dip-fill long targeting a retest of 0.01385–0.01395.