FTT poised for a high-odds dip-buy: aiming for a 0.95–0.97 breakout within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish with a buy-the-dip preference. Expect an initial fade into 0.885–0.892 followed by a push toward 0.95–0.97. Breakout extension risk to ~0.98–1.00 if momentum accelerates; downside risk retest 0.872–0.875, with tail risk toward 0.86 if the breakout fails.
• Optimal plan: Enter on a pullback to the 0.888 area (prior intraday demand, confluence with intraday VWAP bands and Fibonacci 38.2% of the last impulse), target 0.972 (upper Bollinger/overhead supply cluster just below the round 1.00 and prior daily highs).

Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: After the 10/10 capitulation (extreme wick to ~0.24, close ~0.62), price carved a sequence of higher lows and higher highs: HL 0.661 (10/11–10/12), HL 0.766 (10/14), HH 0.832 (10/15), HL 0.789 (10/20), HH 0.938 (today’s high). This is a clean bullish staircase on the daily timeframe.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 10/24: Strong impulse 03:00–04:00 to 0.9386 on volume, followed by constructive consolidation with rising lows: ~0.888 → ~0.875–0.878 → ~0.885–0.889 → ~0.897. This resolves as an ascending triangle under 0.91–0.92 and then under 0.93–0.94. Repeated supply taps without breakdown typically precede a break higher.
• Key levels (spot 0.8979):
  • Supports: 0.888–0.890 (intraday demand, post-spike base), 0.872–0.875 (midday pivot), 0.860 (10/23 close/breakout line), 0.83 (high-volume node), 0.80.
  • Resistances: 0.938–0.94 (today’s high/supply), 0.955–0.965 (early Oct cluster and 9/29 close 0.965), 0.98–1.00 (upper band + psych), 1.02–1.06 (late Jul/early Aug supply).

Moving averages

• SMA(20) ≈ 0.812 (approx from last 20 closes). Price is materially above the 20SMA, confirming short-term uptrend.
• EMA(9) (est.) ≈ 0.845–0.855 (reflecting the sharp recovery since 10/10). Price > EMA(9), sustaining momentum.
• SMA(50) (est.) ≈ 0.87–0.89. Current price sits around/just above the 50-day mean, suggesting trend transition from neutral to bullish. The 20>50 slope is turning positive, a constructive signal.
• Interpretation: The moving-average stack (price > 20 > 50) is nearly aligned bullishly; pullbacks into 20EMA/20SMA zones are attractive buys while above 0.86–0.87.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (14d) (est.): Mid-50s to low-60s. This implies positive momentum with headroom before overbought; aligns with a continuation bias toward 0.95–0.97.
• Stochastic (daily) (est.): ~65–75, rising; supportive but not extended.
• MACD (12,26,9) (daily): Crossover occurred post 10/15; histogram has been rebuilding positive after 10/22. Fresh positive inflection supports a push toward upper resistance (0.95–0.97).
• ADX (14) (est.): Low-to-moderate (~18–22) but rising. DI+ above DI- signals a building trend; not overheated, so continuation odds modestly favor bulls.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (daily) (est.): ~0.085–0.095 (inflated by 10/10 tail but still representative). A 1xATR upside from current is ~0.985; 1xATR downside ~0.81. This frames the 24h cone to roughly 0.81–0.99, with bias to the top half given momentum and structure.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (daily) (est.): Mid ~0.812, upper ~0.97–0.98, lower ~0.65. Price sits between mid and upper bands after a band expansion; there’s still room to tag the upper band without immediate overextension.
• Keltner Channels: Price riding the upper KC since 10/23. Sustained closes near the upper envelope typically precede either a continuation burst or a mean reversion to EMA(20). Given rising ADX and positive breadth, the continuation case is stronger in the near term.

Volume analytics

• Volume expansion: 10/23 saw a large volume thrust on a green day, and 10/24 intraday volume remains robust. Up-volume dominance post-10/10 suggests accumulation.
• OBV (qualitative): Higher lows since 10/10; advancing with price. No divergence evident.
• Volume profile (Oct range): High-volume nodes near 0.80–0.83 (well-accepted price). The 0.90–0.95 pocket is a lower-volume area from early Oct, which often allows faster travel once breached; expect acceleration through 0.938 toward 0.955–0.965.

Fibonacci confluences

• Swing A: 10/10 low (0.623) to 10/24 high (0.939) → Range 0.316.
  • 38.2%: 0.623 + 0.1207 ≈ 0.744 (met 10/12–10/14 on the way up).
  • 50%: ≈ 0.781 (support respected 10/14–10/20 period).
  • 61.8%: ≈ 0.820 (golden support base through mid-Oct). Trading above these retracements signals trend control by bulls.
• Micro swing: 10/20 low (0.789) to 10/24 high (0.939) → Range 0.150.
  • 38.2%: ≈ 0.882. This aligns with today’s intraday pullbacks and makes 0.882–0.892 a high-probability dip zone for entries.
• Extensions: A measured breakout beyond 0.939 projects 1.0x to 1.618x of the micro range: 0.939 + 0.150 = 1.089 (likely beyond 24h), 1.618x ≈ 1.181 (stretch). First practical 24h extension zone: 0.955–0.972 (aligning with upper BB and prior daily supply).

Ichimoku overview (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) mid of recent high/low band likely ~0.84; Kijun (26) ~0.83–0.85. Price > Tenkan and > Kijun: bullish alignment.
• Cloud (Senkou A/B) is flattening and potentially twisting bullish ahead as Tenkan > Kijun and price holds above the cloud base. Chikou lagging below the September spike highs but above recent candles—neutral to mildly bullish. Net: tailwind, with flat Kijun ~0.85 acting as magnet if momentum stalls.

Breakout/pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle on intraday: Flat-ish ceiling ~0.93–0.94 with rising lows; textbook continuation pattern in an emerging uptrend.
• Cup-and-handle (daily, since early Oct): Cup from ~0.93 down to ~0.77 back to ~0.93; current intraday drift is handle-like. A decisive break over 0.94–0.95 completes the pattern; measured move points higher (1.05–1.09), but for next 24h we target the first shelf (0.97–1.00).
• Donchian channel (20-day): Upper bound near 0.95 (10/5 high 0.9506). A fresh 20-day breakout above 0.951 would invite trend-following flows.

VWAP/anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (10/24) sits roughly around 0.893–0.897 through much of the day; price is oscillating near to slightly above it—healthy consolidation after a thrust.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 capitulation: Rising steadily, now sub-0.85–0.87 area (est.). Price holding north of this anchored benchmark underscores the shift from distribution to accumulation.

Wyckoff lens

• Post-capitulation accumulation: Selling climax (10/10), automatic rally (10/11–10/15), secondary test (10/20), then a series of higher lows and an SOS (sign of strength) 10/23–10/24. Current action resembles a “last point of support” retest in the high 0.87–0.89 zone prior to markup toward 0.95–0.97.

Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Primary risk: Rejection at 0.938–0.94 leading to a break of 0.872–0.875. That opens room to 0.860 (breakout backtest). Below 0.855, momentum stalls and the long thesis weakens toward 0.83.
• Liquidity pools: Resting liquidity likely above 0.94 (buy stops) and below 0.872 (sell stops). Expect whipsaws around these bands; plan entries at pullback demand rather than chasing right under resistance.

Probability-weighted 24h path (heuristic)

• Up move to 0.95–0.97 after a dip to 0.885–0.892: ~60–65%.
• Range-bound chop 0.875–0.935: ~20–25%.
• Failure to hold 0.872 leading to tests of 0.86 or 0.83: ~10–15%.

Trade plan synthesis

• Rationale to Buy: Bullish daily and intraday structure; price > 20/50 MA; MACD positive; rising ADX; room to upper bands; ascending triangle and cup-handle dynamics; OBV supportive; key dip confluence at 0.882–0.892.
• Execution: Place a limit buy near 0.888 to align with the 38.2% pullback of the latest impulse and intraday demand shelf. If momentum breaks above 0.939 before a dip, discretionary traders could consider a secondary breakout entry, but the optimal R:R remains the pullback buy.
• Take profit: 0.972 (below upper BB and under the 0.98–1.00 psychological/supply zone). This captures the expected 24h extension while front-running major offers.
• (Optional stop, not required but prudent): 0.862–0.865 (below 10/23 close and today’s S2 band). This yields an approximate R:R of ~3:1 from 0.888 → 0.972 risk ~0.023–0.026, reward ~0.084.

Bottom line

• Expect a shallow dip into high 0.88s, followed by a resolution toward mid-to-high 0.95s within 24 hours. Buy the dip; avoid chasing directly below 0.94 resistance unless momentum is exceptional.