FTT teeters below $0.70: Sell the bounce into 0.71 for a drive toward $0.682

Title timeframe and bias

• Instrument: FTX Token (FTT)
• Timeframe analyzed: Daily + 1H intraday
• Current price: $0.6996 (breaking the $0.70 psychological level)
• Bias next 24h: Bearish trend continuation with a tactically likely minor bounce to sell into

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Trend structure (price action)

• Daily swing pattern: A series of lower highs and lower lows since 2025-11-02. Notable sequence of daily closes: 0.8867 → 0.8238 → 0.7801 → 0.7601 → 0.7360 → 0.7832 (failed bounce) → 0.7926 → 0.7955 → 0.7907 → 0.7524 → 0.7509 → 0.7261 → 0.6996. Clear downtrend acceleration over the last three sessions.
• Intraday (1H): Today’s action repeatedly tested 0.711–0.713, then broke lower; the final prints sit right on/just below the $0.700 round number. The last hour’s close at the lows indicates supply into the close and stop-run risk below 0.700.
• Pattern: Descending channel on the daily; today’s 1H shows a breakdown from an intraday shelf at 0.705–0.712.

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~$0.803. Price is ~12.9% below the 20-SMA, confirming downside momentum and stretched conditions.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Above price and falling; the slope is negative given October highs >$0.90 and current <$0.70. The bearish MA stack supports trend-following shorts; distance from MAs increases risk of snapback bounces.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx calc): ~29.5 (oversold). Interpretation: Short-term bounce risk is rising, but in trending markets RSI can stay sub-30 while price grinds lower. Best used to time entries (sell bounces) versus fade the trend.
• Stochastics: Near 0–10% on a 14-period lookback (price closing at/near the period’s lows). Oversold with potential for brief relief rallies.
• MACD (qualitative): Below zero with widening histogram on recent sessions; confirms trend momentum remains negative.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~$0.045. Implies an expected 24h range envelope around current price of roughly $0.655–$0.745 absent shocks.
• Today’s intraday range: ~$0.699–0.727; compressing into the close after failing to reclaim 0.712–0.715.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Middle band (SMA20): ~$0.803
• Lower band (approx): ~$0.683 (est. using recent std dev). Price is hugging/approaching the lower band, a classic “walk the band” in a downtrend. Confluence with other methods (see pivot S2) strengthens the $0.683–0.682 target zone.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price < Tenkan and < Kijun; cloud above price. Tenkan (9 mid) roughly around ~$0.76 and Kijun (26 mid) likely low-$0.83s. Full bearish alignment; no Tenkan/Kijun cross support yet. Any bounce that fails below/near Tenkan would be a lower-risk short entry.

7. Volume/OBV

• Daily volume has ticked up on the most recent down legs (11/11–11/14), and OBV slope would be negative—distribution signal. Intraday volume spikes around break attempts failed to push price back above $0.712–$0.715, indicating sellers in control at resistance.

8. Support/resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 0.705–0.712 (broken intraday shelf), then 0.718–0.721 (hourly supply), 0.726 (yesterday’s breakdown pivot), 0.735 (daily pivot P), and 0.744 (ATR upper bound region). Higher up: 0.752/0.767 (prior swing levels), 0.794/0.803 (Fib 38.2% and SMA20 confluence).
• Immediate support: $0.700 psych (now marginally broken), then $0.695, $0.682 (daily pivot S2 and near Bollinger lower), $0.673 (measured move from intraday shelf), and deeper $0.662–0.664. Major legacy support: $0.623 (10/10 close after crash day).

9. Classical pivots (based on 2025-11-13 H/L/C ~ 0.7671/0.7137/0.7261)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.7356
• R1 ≈ 2P − L ≈ 0.7575
• S1 ≈ 2P − H ≈ 0.7041
• R2 ≈ P + (H−L) ≈ 0.7890
• S2 ≈ P − (H−L) ≈ 0.6822 Today’s trade broke S1 (~0.704) and is gravitating toward S2 (~0.682), reinforcing the short target zone.

10. Fibonacci levels (swing 11/02 high ~0.948 to today’s low ~0.699)

• 38.2%: ~0.794; 50%: ~0.823; 61.8%: ~0.852. Any bounce toward 0.79–0.82 is a larger timeframe sell area. For 24h, price is unlikely to reclaim that zone absent a news shock.

11. Market profile/VWAP (intraday)

• Approx VWAP today hovered around ~0.712 early; repeated rejections and inability to hold above VWAP show sellers’ control. Below-VWAP closes typically lead to continuation or, at best, mean-reversion to VWAP before another fade.

12. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• Given persistent lower lows and expanding downside ranges, ADX(14) likely sits >25, indicating a tradable trend. In such regimes, selling into strength outperforms bottom-fishing.

13. Divergences and timing

• 1H RSI shows a mild bullish divergence between the 12:00 and 20:00 lows (price marginally lower while RSI likely a touch higher). This suggests a tactical bounce is probable into 0.707–0.712 before sellers reassert. Use that bounce to enter shorts rather than initiate into the hole.

14. Risk factors and alternate scenario

• Oversold risk: With daily RSI ~29.5, a sharp short-covering pop can occur. The invalidation area for shorts intraday is a sustained reclaim above ~0.721–0.726 (back above breakdown zone). If price holds above 0.726, upside extension to 0.735–0.744 is possible, reducing short edge within the next 24h.
• Downside extension risk: If 0.700 fails decisively with no bounce, momentum could accelerate toward 0.682 fast, and even probe 0.668–0.664 (just beyond S2 and near a lower-band overshoot). Given ATR, a print near ~0.662 is within reach on expanded volatility.

Probability-weighted path (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Minor bounce to 0.707–0.712, then rollover toward 0.690–0.682; tag S2 (~0.682) before stabilizing.
• Secondary (25%): Stronger squeeze through 0.721–0.726 into 0.730–0.735, but fails beneath 0.744 and rotates back into the range.
• Tail (15%): No bounce; straight drift lower from current levels to 0.682 and brief overshoot to ~0.668–0.664, then reflex.

Trade plan and rationale

• Edge: Confluence of a dominant downtrend (price below 20/50 MAs, bearish Ichimoku stack), breakdown below S1 and $0.70, negative OBV slope, and alignment of lower Bollinger with pivot S2 at ~0.682. While oscillators are oversold, using the anticipated reflexive bounce to sell improves risk/reward and reduces drawdown.
• Entry: Prefer a limit short on a fade of 0.707–0.712 (broken shelf / VWAP rejection zone). If price spikes to ~0.718–0.721, the setup improves further; partial scale-in acceptable.
• Target: $0.682 (pivot S2 and lower band confluence). Stretch target $0.668 if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation (stop, for risk planning): Sustained reclaim above $0.726 (yesterday’s breakdown area) or hourly close >$0.730. Not part of the schema fields, but crucial for risk control.

Bottom line

• Trend-following bears have the advantage. Tactically, sell a bounce into 0.707–0.712 with a target near 0.682. Expect a choppy initial bounce due to oversold readings, but the broader structure favors another leg lower within 24 hours unless 0.721–0.726 is reclaimed.