FTT poised for a relief pop: oversold oscillators, pivot support, and an hourly base point to 0.64–0.65

FTT multi-timeframe technical scan and 24-hour trading plan

1. Market regime, structure, and context

• Trend structure (Daily): Since the 11/02 local high (~0.948), price has carved a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, forming a clear descending channel. Current price 0.6168 is near the lower third of that channel and close to a key demand shelf at 0.59–0.61 that has produced multiple reactive bounces.
• Volatility snapshot: After the October shock day (10/10 close 0.623 after a 0.240 intra-day low), realized volatility compressed into November but remains elevated compared to pre-October. Recent daily ranges are ~0.03–0.06, implying an ATR(14) roughly in the 0.035–0.045 band. For a 24-hour horizon, a 1x ATR move of ~0.035 is a reasonable base case.
• Volume: The multi-day selloff from early November unfolded on generally decreasing volume (post 11/02), suggesting seller momentum waning. Recent sessions (11/21–11/23) show stabilization with moderate volume and smaller real bodies, often a precursor to mean-reversion pops within a downtrend.

2. Levels and confluences

• Horizontal S/R: • Major resistance: 0.645–0.655 (micro supply from 11/19–11/20 and mid-channel cap), then 0.68–0.70 (psychological / prior breakdown area), 0.72–0.75. • Immediate resistance: 0.624–0.625 (intraday lid), then 0.639–0.640 (pivot R2 cluster). • Support: 0.605–0.612 (intraday shelf), 0.592–0.595 (pivot S1 cluster), deeper support near 0.575 (S2), and structural at 0.59–0.60.
• Pivots (classic) using 11/22 H/L/C = 0.621606 / 0.589536 / 0.610487: • P = (H+L+C)/3 = 0.60721 • R1 = 0.62488, S1 = 0.59281 • R2 = 0.63928, S2 = 0.57514 Price now 0.6168 sits above P, below R1, a neutral-to-bullish intraday posture with overhead friction at R1.
• Fibonacci context (Oct low to Nov high): 10/10 low 0.2401 to 11/02 high 0.948 → 50% retrace ≈ 0.594. Spot 0.617 is hovering just above that 50% retracement zone—often a battleground for reactive bounces, especially when momentum is stretched.

3. Indicators (Daily unless noted)

• Moving averages: • 20-SMA ≈ 0.708 (est.), price well below → bearish bias. • 50-SMA is higher still (~0.80–0.85 by inspection) → dominant downtrend intact. • Short-term EMAs (8/21) likely bear-aligned (8 < 21), but slope flattening as price compresses near support.
• RSI(14): Approx calculation from last 14 closes yields RSI ≈ 11–15 (very oversold). The last two closes ticked up slightly, hinting at early mean-reversion pressure. Such sub-20 readings often precede short bursts higher even inside downtrends.
• Stochastic (fast): Likely sub-20 with %K curling up from the floor—typical for bounce attempts with stops below recent swing lows.
• MACD: Below zero with a negative signal, but the histogram has started to contract over the past 2–3 days, indicating downside momentum is waning.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is in the lower band area; after riding the lower band for multiple sessions, mean reversion to the mid-band (near the 20SMA) is the textbook expectation—but given distance to the 20SMA, the practical target in 24h is toward the band’s lower-middle zone (~0.64–0.65), not the full mid-band.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA, ATR 1.5): Price hugging/below the lower channel; rotation toward the EMA is consistent when sellers tire.
• ADX(14): Likely >25 given the persistent trend; rising ADX with flat-to-fading -DI suggests trend strength remains, but oversold oscillators favor a counter-trend pop rather than immediate trend continuation.
• Ichimoku: • Price below Tenkan and Kijun and below Cloud on daily → bearish higher timeframe. • However, Tenkan is flatting and price is stabilizing around an equilibrium pocket; a Tenkan test (~0.63–0.64 zone by inference) within 24h is plausible.
• OBV/Volume flow: No fresh breakdown in OBV concurrent with price stabilizing suggests reduced distribution pressure near current levels.

4. Price action, patterns, and intraday structure

• Candle anatomy: • 11/21 printed a long-lower-wick type candle (low 0.5899, close 0.6050) signaling dip buying into S1/S2 region. • 11/22 closed marginally higher (0.6105) → tentative confirmation. • 11/23 intraday shows a tight upward drift with repeated rejections near 0.624–0.625, creating a micro range 0.612–0.625.
• Micro structure (hourly): A sequence of marginally higher lows (0.612 → 0.614 → 0.616) against a flat ceiling near 0.625 forms an ascending triangle base intraday. A push through 0.625–0.626 opens a path to 0.639–0.645 quickly (pivot R2 + supply block).
• Channel analysis: Price is at/near the lower boundary of the November descending channel, where prior touches have produced reactive bounces toward the channel median. Median projection currently aligns with ~0.64–0.65.
• Wyckoff lens: After a markdown leg, the last 2–3 sessions look like early Phase B-to-C behavior (testing demand under 0.60 and popping back above P). A successful spring would be a brief dip into 0.60–0.61 followed by swift reclaim through 0.625.

5. Strategy overlays and signals

• Mean reversion: Extreme RSI oversold, price near 50% retrace of the Oct–Nov advance, support confluence at 0.60–0.61, and pivot P support at 0.607 all bias for a short-term bounce.
• Momentum shift watch: MACD histogram contraction + Stoch curling up boost odds of a 24h relief rally to R1/R2.
• Breakout vs. pullback entry: • Pullback buy: 0.608–0.612 (near P and intraday shelf) with invalidation under S1 0.5928 increases reward-to-risk. • Breakout buy: Over 0.625 on volume targets 0.639–0.645 quickly; however, given current price is just below that lid, a slightly lower limit entry is more capital-efficient with defined risk.
• Pivot map for targets and risk: • Upside magnets: R1 0.6249 → R2 0.6393 → supply 0.645–0.655. • Downside breaks: S1 0.5928 → S2 0.5751 (low probability in next 24h unless a new shock).

6. 24-hour forecast (probabilistic bands)

• Base case (55–60%): Range trade with upward bias: 0.606–0.648; likely tests of 0.624–0.639, with wicks into 0.645–0.650 on a squeeze.
• Bear case (20–25%): Failed attempts at 0.625 → fade back below P to retest 0.598–0.605; only if risk mood sours or liquidity thins.
• Bull extension (15–20%): Clean break above 0.625 early → momentum to 0.639–0.645; if volume expands, overshoot to 0.650–0.655 possible before late fade.

7. Trade plan and risk framework (24h tactical)

• Bias: Counter-trend long for a relief pop inside a dominant daily downtrend.
• Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near 0.611 (between P=0.607 and current price, inside intraday demand). Alternative breakout trigger: add on confirmed 0.626+ with volume.
• Initial take-profit (TP): 0.648 (just below the 0.65 round, capturing R2 + supply confluence while front-running overhead liquidity). This sits at ~1x ATR from entry.
• Invalidation/stop (not required by prompt, but for context): Below 0.593 (under S1 and below the 11/21 hammer’s body). That keeps RR ≈ (0.648-0.611)/(0.611-0.593) ≈ 0.037/0.018 ≈ 2.05:1.
• Path dependency: If price spikes to 0.626–0.629 quickly without filling 0.611, consider chasing only on a confirmed breakout (close above 0.626 on the 1h with rising volume), keeping the same TP band and a tighter invalidation under 0.617.

8. Synthesis and decision

• Confluences for a near-term bounce: deeply oversold RSI, pivot P support, clustering support 0.60–0.61, MACD histogram improvement, hourly ascending base, and the 50% retracement neighborhood. Against it is the intact higher-timeframe downtrend. For a 24-hour tactical trade, the skew is favorable to the upside toward 0.639–0.650.
• Therefore: Initiate a Buy (long) via a pullback limit at 0.611 with a 24-hour TP at 0.648.

9. What would invalidate

• A decisive hourly close below 0.592–0.595 (S1) with expansion in volume would negate the bounce thesis and re-open S2 (0.575) risk. In that case, the next high-probability long would be reloading lower near 0.578–0.582 or waiting for a fresh base.

Prediction summary for next 24 hours

• Expect consolidation with a bullish skew; likely travel path: 0.610 → 0.624 (R1 test) → 0.639 (R2) with tails up to 0.645–0.650; downside probes should find buyers at 0.606–0.612; a break under 0.595 materially weakens the bounce odds.