FTT coils at the floor: betting the 0.606 bid for a snapback into 0.622

Comprehensive multi-method technical review for FTT, timeframe: daily with 24h trading plan

Context and data hygiene

• Dataset spans 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-29 with one late candle near current. Current price: 0.60851.
• Notable outlier: 2025-10-10 prints an extreme intraday low at 0.24007 with a close 0.62306. That wick looks anomalous compared to adjacent ranges; I down-weight it for volatility metrics and structural levels so it doesn’t distort bands/ATR.

1. Trend diagnostics (price structure and slope)

• Primary trend (last ~10 weeks): Down from the September spike >1.0 to the current 0.60–0.62 area. Series of lower highs into mid-November.
• Recent structure (last ~9 sessions): Sideways base 0.606–0.619 after a persistent slide. Multiple rejections sub-0.59 on 11/24, 11/22, indicating demand emerging above 0.59.
• Market structure shift: Still below prior swing lower-highs, but the sequence of lower lows has paused. Short-term regime = mean-reverting range rather than impulsive trend.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• EMA9 ≈ 0.611 (price marginally below). Slight near-term bearish tilt but very close—susceptible to whipsaw.
• EMA21 ≈ 0.639–0.642 (price well below). Intermediate trend bearish.
• SMA20 ≈ 0.645–0.650; SMA50 ≈ 0.82–0.86 (broad estimate). Price far below both, confirming macro bearish overhang. Interpretation: Macro headwind persists, but price is building a base just under EMA9. A close above ~0.612–0.614 would flip the very short-term bias to neutral-bullish without changing the larger trend.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 40–44: weak but off oversold; typical of range basing. Room to bounce toward 50 without trend change.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): %K rising from low 20s to 30s/40s on recent sessions—bullish divergence vs. price flat-lining; supports a pop toward range highs.
• ROC(10) near zero: confirms momentum stall.
• MACD (12,26,9): Negative but histogram has been contracting toward zero; momentum selling pressure is fading. A shallow bull cross is possible on a modest uptick above 0.612–0.615. Interpretation: Momentum is no longer pushing down; basing with mild bullish bias for a mean-reversion move.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (ex-outlier) ≈ 0.018–0.022. Expect 24h realized move roughly ±0.02 around mid-price in a non-trending regime.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (computed excluding the 0.24 spike): Mid ≈ 0.647; lower ≈ 0.58–0.59; upper ≈ 0.70–0.71. Price sits in the lower third. Bands have narrowed in the most recent week, signaling a volatility contraction/squeeze—often precedes a directional expansion, but with ADX low, initial moves tend to be faded unless there’s a catalyst.
• Keltner Channels (20,2xATR): Price hugging lower half; confirms range behavior. Interpretation: Tight daily ranges the last week favor swing scalps from support to resistance.

5. Volume/flow

• Volume has compressed from early/mid-November. OBV flattened over the last week, suggesting distribution has paused. No aggressive accumulation, but bids are absorbing dips around 0.606 and especially >0.59.
• The weekly value area (informal) looks centered ~0.61–0.615, with repeated transactions clustering in 0.606–0.619. Interpretation: Balanced market with buyers defending sub-0.61 and sellers near 0.62–0.63.

6. Support/resistance mapping (levels from the tape)

• Immediate support: 0.606–0.607 (micro base); 0.598–0.600 (round number pivot); 0.588–0.590 (triple-bottom zone from 11/22–11/24).
• Immediate resistance: 0.619–0.622 (recent local highs, 11/28); 0.633 (11/27 high); 0.650 (supply from 11/19–11/20); 0.683–0.690 (Fib bounce zone from Nov swing). Interpretation: The 0.619–0.622 cap is the near-term take-profit magnet for a bounce from 0.606.

7. Fibonacci context (for confluence)

• Using swing: 11/10 high 0.8079 to 11/21 low 0.6050:
  • 23.6% ≈ 0.654
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.684
  • 50% ≈ 0.706
• Current range sits below 23.6%—a weak retracement so far. First meaningful Fib resistance confluence only arrives above 0.650; near-term, price likely oscillates below that.

8. Ichimoku (9-26-52, indicative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; Tenkan ≈ 0.612, Kijun ≈ 0.65, Span A/B above price. Chikou under price. Full bearish stack on higher timeframe; however, a reclaim of Tenkan (≈0.612) often allows a squeeze to Kijun equilibrium zones later—unlikely within 24h but relevant if we break 0.622.

9. ADX/DMI

• ADX(14) ≈ 16–19: weak trend. -DI > +DI but converging. Signals a low-conviction bearish drift; ranges tend to hold.

10. Candlestick/price action

• Multiple small-bodied candles and several lower-wick rejections sub-0.59 last week, plus doji-like closes around 0.61. This is classic basing under resistance. No bearish engulfing at the range top yet; buyers are likely to try another push toward 0.619–0.622.

11. Statistical mean reversion lens

• z-score vs. 20-day mean ≈ (0.609 - 0.647)/0.034 ≈ -1.1 to -1.2. Probability favors drift upward toward the mid or at least to the local resistance band when ADX is low. Within 24h, the realistic target is the weekly value area high (~0.620–0.622) rather than the 20D mean.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Range holds; bounce off 0.605–0.607 to test 0.619–0.622; modest rejection into the close. Suitable for a tight long scalp.
• Bear case (30%): Minor breakdown through 0.605 leads to 0.598 liquidity sweep; strong buyers defend 0.598–0.600; daily close back near 0.606–0.610. This would stop out aggressive longs without sustained trend follow-through.
• Bull extension (15%): Clean break/close above 0.622 drives a stop-run to 0.633; stretch goal 0.645 if momentum/volume appear (less likely without catalyst).

13. Risk management framing

• ATR14 ≈ 0.02 suggests realistic intraday span of 0.04 peak-to-trough. A long from ~0.606 with a take-profit near 0.622 captures ~0.016, around 0.8x ATR—aligned with the range top. Downside risk to 0.598 is ~0.008–0.010 from 0.606.
• R:R close to 1.5–2.0 if entry is near 0.606 and exit toward 0.622–0.625, provided a disciplined stop is used (not part of the formal output fields, but conceptually around 0.597–0.599).

14. Synthesis and trading intent

• Macro trend remains down, but microstructure is range-bound with buyers visible into 0.606 and below at 0.598–0.590. Momentum flattening, ADX low, Bollinger squeeze, and repeated defenses of sub-0.61 favor a tactical mean-reversion long for the next 24 hours aiming at 0.619–0.622 resistance.
• I prefer buying weakness near 0.606 with a target just under the 0.622 cap to increase fill probability on the exit.

Decision and 24h plan

• Direction: Buy (Long position) for a range-to-resistance move.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy near 0.6060 (inside the support shelf to improve fill odds beneath current 0.6085).
• Profit-taking: 0.6225, just below resistance band (0.619–0.622) to front-run supply and other participants’ offers.
• Expected path: Initial chop 0.606–0.610, then probe 0.618–0.622 if EMA9 is reclaimed; failure to reclaim may retest 0.600–0.605 first before the bounce.

Contingencies (context only)

• If 0.622 breaks on heavy volume, secondary upside into 0.633 is possible; if 0.605 fails on a closing basis, expect a sweep toward 0.598 and possibly 0.590, which would invalidate the scalp and suggest standing aside or flipping bias after reassessment.