FTT Breakdown After Capitulation: High-Probability Retest Sell Into $0.39–$0.40

Market snapshot (FTT)

• Current price: $0.3827
• Context: Multi-month downtrend from ~$0.86 (Nov) → ~$0.38 (now). Recent price action shows a sharp intraday sell-off followed by a small rebound, but the rebound is occurring below multiple broken supports.

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1) Multi-timeframe structure (trend + market regime)

Daily structure (Nov → Jan)

• Primary trend: Bearish. Sequence of lower highs / lower lows is clear.
• Key swing map:
  • Nov: ~0.88 → ~0.60 (distribution + breakdown)
  • Early Dec: bounce to ~0.76 (capitulation bounce) → resumed decline
  • Late Dec: range ~0.47–0.51 (base) → Jan breakdown
  • Late Jan: hard breakdown from ~0.45 → 0.395 then to 0.37–0.38
• Regime: Bear trend with intermittent short squeezes (typical of distressed/low-price tokens).

1H structure (last ~24h)

• Price drifted lower from ~0.40 area, then:
  • Large impulse down: ~0.390 → 0.3707 (at ~15:00)
  • Dead-cat bounce: rebound to ~0.3840 (at ~21:00)
• Structure is still bearish, because the bounce did not reclaim the pre-drop consolidation zone (~0.39–0.40).

Implication: Any strength is more likely a relief rally to sell into unless price reclaims and holds above ~0.40.

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2) Support/Resistance (horizontal levels + pivots)

Near-term supports

• S1: $0.370–0.372 (intraday low region 0.3699–0.3707). First level bulls must defend.
• S2: $0.395–0.400 (now broken). Previously acted as support; now likely overhead supply.

Near-term resistances

• R1: $0.390–0.393 (intraday distribution zone before breakdown; many trapped longs).
• R2: $0.400–0.402 (psychological + hourly opens/closes clustered here prior to selloff).
• R3: $0.415–0.418 (recent daily swing region; strong supply overhead).

Implication: Price is currently between support (0.37) and heavy resistance (0.39–0.40), which favors mean-reversion bounces being sold.

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3) Candles + price action read

Daily candle behavior

• The last daily bar (Jan 29) shows wide range (low ~0.3699, close ~0.3827) → indicates capitulation-type selling and bargain hunting.
• However, the close is still well below the prior support band (~0.395–0.41), so it resembles a bearish breakdown day with partial retracement, not a confirmed reversal.

Hourly tape/flow

• The selloff hour (~15:00) had very large volume relative to adjacent hours → likely stop run / forced liquidation.
• The bounce hour (~21:00) also had elevated volume (217k) → suggests short-covering + dip buyers, but not necessarily trend reversal.

Implication: After liquidation, markets often retest breakdown levels (0.39–0.40) and fade.

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4) Volatility analysis (range expansion)

• Intraday range roughly 0.3699 → 0.4019 (~8.6% from low to high).
• This is a classic range expansion after compression, often followed by either:
  1. continuation in direction of impulse (down), after a retest, or
  2. short-term consolidation before next leg.

Given higher-timeframe bearish structure, probability favors (1) continuation down after a retest.

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5) Moving averages (inference from price positioning)

Even without explicit MA calculations, we can infer:

• Price is far below November/early-December levels and has been declining steadily → daily 20/50/100-day MAs are likely above price and sloping down.
• On the 1H, price traded below ~0.40 most of the day and only bounced to ~0.383–0.384 → likely below key short-term averages.

Implication: Trend-following signals remain Sell / short rallies.

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6) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

• The sharp drop to ~0.37 likely pushed short-term momentum into oversold, enabling the bounce.
• But oversold in a downtrend typically produces bear-market rallies rather than sustained reversals.

Implication: Expect choppy rebound attempts, but with momentum failing near 0.39–0.40.

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7) Volume profile / “trapped supply” logic

• There was significant trading around 0.395–0.400 earlier (hourly cluster, daily prior close ~0.4007).
• Breakdown through that zone implies many participants are now underwater, creating sell pressure on retests.

Implication: The first retest into 0.390–0.400 is a high-probability area for sellers to re-enter.

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8) Pattern recognition (setups)

Breakdown + retest setup (classic)

• Breakdown: 0.395–0.400 lost decisively.
• Retest zone: 0.390–0.400.
• If price fails to reclaim 0.40 and shows rejection (wicks / lower highs), a second push toward 0.372 then potentially 0.360 becomes likely.

Bear flag possibility (intraday)

• Impulse down → sideways/up drift (0.374 → 0.384) = potential bear flag.

Implication: Probabilistic bias is down over next 24h.

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24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability):

• Price attempts a retest into $0.390–$0.398, gets rejected, and drifts back toward $0.372–$0.375.

Bear case:

• Failure at ~$0.388–$0.392 leads to a breakdown under $0.370, opening $0.360–$0.365.

Bull case (lower probability, invalidation):

• Sustained acceptance back above $0.402 (hourly closes above) could push to $0.415–$0.418.

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Trading plan (24h tactical)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: dominant downtrend, breakdown below 0.395–0.400, rebound looks like a relief rally into resistance.

Optimal open price (short entry)

• Primary entry: $0.395 (sell the retest into prior support / supply)
  • If not filled, secondary zone: $0.390–$0.392 (still acceptable, slightly worse R:R)

Target (take profit)

• Primary take profit: $0.372 (retest of capitulation lows zone)

(Risk note: a clean hold above ~$0.402–$0.405 would weaken the short thesis; consider using it as invalidation if managing risk.)