Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Hedera (HBAR) – 24hr Outlook

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Trend (Past 3 Months):

• Major Up-Move: From late Feb through mid-March, HBAR experienced a significant rally, peaking at $0.284 (03-Mar-2025). Volume spiked in conjunction with price surges, indicating strong buy-side interest.
• Subsequent Correction: Post-peak, persistent declines followed, marking lower highs and lower lows, bottoming around $0.135 (06-Apr-2025). This was accompanied by increased volume, indicative of panic selling and profit-taking.
• Recent Consolidation & Recovery: Since mid-April, the price has attempted a bottoming process, repeatedly testing and rebounding off the $0.16–$0.18 support band. The most recent sessions show a recovery and stabilization above $0.18, with the current price at $0.1906.

2. Chart Patterns

Observable Patterns:

• Double-Bottom Structure: Two distinct lows around $0.163–$0.167 (April 1 and March 31, as well as again in mid-April, and then $0.135 in early April), with price recovery after, indicates potential medium-term support and reversal base.
• Rising Troughs (Since April): Higher lows on daily candles support a bullish undercurrent.
• Micro Channel (Last 10 Days): Price action since mid-May forms a slightly upward-sloping channel: lows are higher, whereas highs remain somewhat capped below $0.206.

3. Key Price Levels (Support & Resistance)

• Support: $0.183–$0.185 (recent consolidation zone, tested multiple times)
• Next Support: $0.177 (local pivot), $0.167-$0.163 (major historical zone)
• Immediate Resistance: $0.197–$0.200 (daily closes and multiple failed intra-day moves)
• Stronger Resistance: $0.206–$0.212 (former breakdown zone, where sharp selloffs started)

4. Volume & Liquidity

• Volume Spike Explanations: All major upswings and corrections were validated with corresponding volume surges, seen especially in breakout attempts.
• Recent Trends: Volume is decreasing slightly compared to spikes in February/March/May, but holding steady on up days, suggesting accumulating interest and limited panic selling.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (20 SMA): Estimated around $0.188 (based on past 20 closes). Price is NEAR the 20 SMA, suggesting a test of this moving average as dynamic support.
• Mid-Term (50 SMA): Likely in the $0.185–$0.190 range. Price has recently crossed above it, a bullish sign.
• 200 SMA: Estimated around $0.195-$0.200. Acts as significant resistance; breaks above here would be bullish confirmations.

6. Oscillators

• RSI (14-Period): Calculation (approximate, using observed price action):
  • Prices have moved from recent lows (~$0.182) to highs near $0.206, now stabilizing near $0.191.
  • RSI likely near 53–59, indicating NEITHER overbought nor oversold: neutral/leaning bullish.
• MACD:
  • After the deep correction, MACD lines likely converged and have recently crossed above signal, supporting bullish continuation but without extreme bullish momentum.

7. Candlestick Analysis (Recent Hours)

• Last 24hr hourly candles show a tight range ($0.185–$0.192) with a series of higher lows, steady upward close, and little wick below the candle bodies—indicative of buying strength on dips.
• Last completed daily candle is bullish engulfing compared to previous day: higher open and close, taking previous sellers out.

8. Volatility Measures

• ATR (14): Volatility has contracted from the earlier part of the year but remains sufficient to support 4–6% intraday moves. This is constructive for swing trades.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• Major Feb/March swing:
  • High: $0.284 (March 3)
  • Low: $0.135 (April 6)
  • 38.2% retracement: ~$0.192
  • 50% retracement: ~$0.209
  • 61.8% retracement: ~$0.226
• The price currently sits at the 38.2% level, retesting this key retracement zone. Break above would target $0.209, then $0.226.

10. Sentiment & Intermarket Signals

• Momentum: Sequence of higher lows and constricting volatility indicate interest is building for a possible breakout.
• Market Structure: No signs of excess supply (no supply spikes), sellers are drying up at/under $0.185 repeatedly.

11. Order Flow, Stop Hunt, and Liquidity Zones

• Stop Accumulation: Tight market action just above a key support ($0.185) indicates potential for a liquidity sweep (brief dip under $0.185 to trigger stops before upside continuation).
• Immediate Liquidity Pool: $0.197–$0.206, where many recent daily closes occurred, would attract sellers and profit-takers; above $0.206, stops could trigger more upside.

12. Holistic Synthesis & Prediction

• HBAR's recent basing action at a rising trendline, combined with neutral/positive oscillator readings, and volume confirmation, signals accumulation. The failed attempts by sellers to break $0.185, and repeated bounces, bolster the bullish argument. If the current micro-channel holds, a rotational move toward resistance at $0.197-$0.206 is likely in the next 24h. The most probable short-term action: an initial minor dip ($0.188–$0.189) to flush late longs, followed by an upwards breakout attempt toward $0.197 and a possible test of $0.206.

Risk:

• If price closes < $0.183 on volume, the setup is invalidated. Otherwise, upside edge outweighs downside risk.

Final Conclusion: LONG BIAS — Buy on minor dip, target $0.197–$0.206 in next 24h