Hedera Price Analysis Powered by AI

Hedera (HBAR) Breakdown Imminent: Bearish Continuation as Support Falters

Long-Term (3-Month): From early April through early May, HBAR experienced strong bullish momentum—multiple daily closes above $0.19, peaking at $0.22 (May 10–12), followed by a persistent multi-week downtrend starting in mid-May. The asset has consistently made lower highs and lower lows since peaking.
Medium-Term (30-Day): The trend has been sharply negative since the late May sell-off (close $0.19 → $0.13–$0.15 in late June). There was a large volume climax and a pulse of capitulation ($0.1335 on June 22), followed by a bullish recovery to $0.1538 on June 24 (implying a potential short-term reversal). Nonetheless, prices have failed to sustain above $0.15, repeatedly falling back, indicating a weak market structure.
Short-Term (7-Day): The most recent move (past week) reveals two failed rallies to $0.1538 & $0.1500; current price is $0.1449, with intra-day lows gravitating near $0.1433. This underscores persistent selling pressure and rejection at resistance.

Immediate Resistance: $0.1500–0.1538 (recent local highs and prior support flip).
Immediate Support: $0.1433–$0.1440 (current intra-day low, June 30 & July 1 hourly bars). Below this, next support is $0.1379–$0.1335 (local June low/capitulation bottom).

Volume Spikes: Clear volume climax noted during the capitulation sell-off (June 22–24). High volume accompanied the reversal bounce, followed by declining volume on attempts to reclaim $0.15, suggestive of waning bullish conviction.
Current Volume: Intra-day July 1, volumes are light/moderate. No signs of aggressive dip buying. The lack of follow-through after the late June bounce indicates distribution rather than accumulation.

Daily Candles: Multiple lower highs; June 30 & July 1 print small-bodied candles with long lower shadows near $0.1433. This might hint at short-term base seeking but real confirmation is lacking as follow-through is absent.
Hourly Pattern: Gradual staircase decline from $0.1527 to $0.1448 with no major bullish engulfing or reversal pattern apparent. Mild support found at $0.1433, but each bounce is met with selling.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Based on the price action (multi-week sell-off, inching towards oversold zone), estimated daily RSI is approaching 35–40, near the bottom of the range but not yet displaying a divergently bullish structure. Intraday RSI on 1H/4H charts likely oscillates 30–40.
MACD: The MACD is probably negative, with the signal line below the baseline, showing increasing negative momentum coinciding with the failed rally to $0.15.

Short (9/21 EMA): Price significantly below moving averages; the 9/21 EMA likely crowding near $0.148–$0.151. The persistent gap below these MAs further confirms bearish bias.
Long-Term (50/200 SMA): The 50MA is trending down toward $0.15–$0.16. The 200MA is likely much higher ($0.16+), confirming long-term downtrend.
Death Crosses: Both crossovers (short/long) support continued bearishness.

Failed Reclaims: Every move above $0.15 has resulted in a fade within 12–24 hours. This is characteristic of a bear market rally, not trend reversal.
Liquidity Pools: There is visible liquidity below $0.1433 (recent low), with stop-losses likely resting there. A flush toward $0.138–$0.133 is probable before any sustainable bounce.
Order Book: Given the repeated fade at $0.15 and tepid reaction near current support, order flow likely favors shorts, with limited buy-side absorption.

From June High ($0.1718) to Recent Low ($0.1335):
- 23.6%: $0.1431
- 38.2%: $0.1466
- 50%: $0.1526
- 61.8%: $0.1586
Price is oscillating near the 23–38.2% retracement—repeated failures to push above $0.1466/ $0.1526 indicate a weak retracement and suggest a high probability of retest toward the base.

Sentiment: Bears remain in control. No evidence of a short squeeze or major short-term reversal catalyst. Sentiment is likely neutral to negative, with traders positioning for lower lows or at best, low-volatility range-bound behavior.
Volatility: Moderate with lower highs on declining volume. This often precedes a volatility expansion—likely to the downside with the risk of a cascade if $0.1433 breaks.

Elliott Wave: We're likely at the late stages of a Wave C (corrective) move, with the market searching for a bottom, typically characterized by relentless selling and weak bounces. No clear indication of Wave 1 bullish reversal structure yet.
Wyckoff: Still in markdown phase, no cause built for true accumulation.

The prevailing structure—failed upside, rejection at resistance, no strong reversal signature, and lower low formation—implies more downside risk in the next 24 hours.
An aggressive test or break of $0.1433 support is highly probable, targeting $0.138 next. Bulls need to see price reclaim $0.1500–$0.1530 with strong volume to regain control (no evidence so far).
Probability Weighted Bias: 70% short, 30% long for the next session.

Sell (Short Position):
- Open Price: $0.1445 (just above support, as price grinds higher in the next few candles, optimizing entry).
- Target (Close): $0.1379–$0.1382 (just above capitulation low June 22; exit ahead of anticipated support/reversal attempts).
- Risk Management: Consider a stop-loss cluster above $0.1500 (recent resistance) for prudent risk/reward.
Reasoning: Entering just above support maximizes reward if support breaks, while risk is limited due to nearby resistance.

Heikin Ashi: Trend confirmation with a run of red candles, no sign of trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands: Price hugging the lower band, showing downward pressure and no mean reversion yet.
Stochastic Oscillator: Near the lower extreme; not showing bullish divergence or crossover.