Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Hedera (HBAR) – July 6, 2025

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Chart)

• Structure: The last three months display a significant retracement from the highs in mid-May (peaking at $0.22) to late June lows (around $0.13). This was followed by a sharp bullish reversal as price spiked from $0.13 (June 22) to $0.15 (June 24-25), then consolidated (sideways action).
• Recent Price Recovery: Since the June 22 low, HBAR has consistently printed higher lows and higher closes, highlighting the beginning of a potential new uptrend following a prolonged correction.
• Candle Construction: On June 23, a large bullish engulfing candle on high volume marked the capitulation low and the start of a technical reversal. Subsequent daily candles show gradual upward momentum with decreasing volatility.

2. Short-Term Trend Analysis (Hourly Chart & Last 24h)

• Range: The last 24 hours saw a volatile grind upwards: from $0.152–$0.154 early July 6, ascending to the current $0.1595. Notably, there were strong green hourly candles during the mid-day UTC session on July 6, followed by consolidation.
• Momentum: Intraday price held above all short-term support levels from $0.156, respecting most higher lows across the session. This indicates robust demand absorption and a bullish undertone.

3. Volume & Participation

• Daily Volumes: Volume surged dramatically on the June 23 bounce, then remained elevated, confirming sustained interest after reversal. The recent move up to current levels also witnessed incremental increases in both price and volume (classic bullish confirmation).
• Hourly Volumes: Spikes during upward moves ($0.154 to $0.158 between 13:00 and 20:00 UTC) signify that breakouts have been backed by genuine market participation.

4. Volatility & ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR 14 (Daily): Expanded during the late-June capitulation, now compressing, which is a classic feature of a post-reversal base formation. As volatility contracts post-reversal, directional breakouts become more reliable.
• Intraday Volatility: Last 24 hours show steady, minor expansions on upward thrusts followed by tight, low-range consolidation—indicative of bullish control with no panic.

5. Oscillator Analysis (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• RSI (14, Daily): Estimated in the mid-upper 50s, recovering from an oversold zone—this is ideal for early-trend bullish entries, as it suggests there's room for further advance before overbought conditions set in.
• MACD (Daily): Likely just turned positive (MACD line crossing above signal), with histogram advancing—an early confirmation of momentum reversal.
• Stochastics: Appears to be exiting an oversold region, supportive of continued upward movement in the next 24 hours.

6. Pattern Analysis & Market Structure

• Reversal Pattern: The V-shaped bottom on June 22–23, combined with subsequent consolidation, produces a classic reversal base. The last 48 hours constructed short-term ascending triangle and bull flag patterns on intraday timescales.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Strong Resistance: $0.162–$0.165 (intraday recent high and also daily cluster).
  • Support: $0.154–$0.156 (recent base, previous resistance turned support).
  • Breakout Confirmation: Current price action breaking through $0.158–$0.159 is testing the upper end of the recent range, setting the stage for a potential continuation move.

7. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (9, 12, 21 EMA): Price convincingly above the 9- and 21-hour EMA on both intraday and daily, showing healthy momentum.
• 50, 100, 200 SMA/EMA: The daily candle closed above the 50-period SMA, an important reversal signal. However, the 100 and 200 remain above, acting as medium-term resistance.

8. Order Book & Market Psychology

• The bounce from $0.13 was aggressive and well-supported, suggesting capitulation and accumulation. The reluctance to sell off after testing $0.16 multiple times implies an absorption of supply and probable preparation for a push higher. There is little sign of distribution at current levels.

9. Fib Retracement & Projections

• Fibonacci Retracement: The rally from $0.13 to $0.16+ retraced roughly 38.2% of the recent swing high-to-low range. A move above $0.162 would be a technical confirmation for a 50% retracement toward $0.172 and then $0.18 (major resistance from previous breakdown).

10. Elliott Wave Perspective

• The sharp drop into June 22 could represent the end of a corrective wave C. Since then, the impulsive move and recent sideways action may mark the start of a wave 1 advance and ongoing wave 2 correction; the next leg up (wave 3) could be imminent if resistance breaks.

11. Risk/Reward & Optimal Entry Setups

• Tight stops are possible beneath $0.156, allowing for attractive risk/reward. First resistance and first profit targets are near $0.162–$0.165. If this breaks on volume, extension targets lie around $0.172–$0.18.

12. Synthesis & Prediction for Next 24 Hours

• Larger trend has shifted bullish post-reversal.
• Intraday price is consolidating at local highs with bullish structure and sustained volume.
• Oscillators are neutral-to-bullish, no sign of overextension.
• Probable outcome: retest and likely breakout above $0.162 toward $0.167+/0.172 over 24h, barring external market shocks.
• Bears are still worn out from the prior capitulation and have not shown meaningful defense at resistance levels; this favors buyers controlling the narrative into the next session.

13. Investment Decision

• With all factors combined—trend reversal, supportive volume, bullish technical structure, and room to move higher per oscillators—the optimal setup is a Buy (Long position).
• Entry can be timed on slight retests toward $0.1588-$0.159 as price consolidates prior to attempted breakout.

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Summary:

• Overall bias for HBAR is bullish for the next 24h with continuation likely. Optimal buy entry on minor pullbacks near $0.159, target $0.167 (first resistance), with possible extension to $0.172 if breakout is strong and volume confirms.

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Risk: If price loses $0.156 intraday support, reassess, as this would indicate a failed breakout and possible retest of lower consolidation support levels.