In-Depth Technical Analysis of Hedera (HBAR) - July 8, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term Trend (3-Month Overview)

• From April to early May, HBAR experienced significant rallies, peaking above $0.22 before succumbing to distribution and entering a corrective phase. The correction was marked by persistent lower highs and strategic support breaches, notably below the $0.19 and $0.17 levels.
• Recent price action shows a bottoming-out in late June at $0.1335, followed by a swift, high-volume recovery toward $0.16. This V-shaped recovery and the development of higher lows indicate the initial formation of a bullish reversal.

Medium-Term Trend (1-Month Overview)

• After the June 22 capitulation, bulls reasserted control above the $0.15 zone, with each dip getting bought near $0.14/$0.15. This forms a classic Wyckoff Spring, transitioning into the Mark-up phase.
• Resistance at $0.162/$0.163 (the prior breakdown zone in early June) has been tested twice and is now being challenged again, suggesting rising bullish momentum.

Short-Term Trend (Weekly/Daily)

• The last 7 daily candles show higher closes and consistent support at prior resistance. The price action is compressing between $0.158 and $0.162, hinting at a volatility expansion move imminent.
• HBAR attempted and at times surpassed $0.161/$0.162 intraday, but saw minor profit-taking as evidenced by occasional upper wicks.

2. Price Action and Chart Patterns

• Chart Structure: Formation of a clear ascending triangle pattern from the mid-June bottom, with horizontal resistance around $0.162 and higher swing lows. This bullish continuation pattern is often followed by an upside breakout.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Support: $0.155/$0.158 (30-min and 4hr demand, prior breakout base)
  • Resistance: $0.162/$0.165 (June tops, structural pivot)
• Candlestick Patterns:
  • On July 8, the price climbed above $0.161 and repeatedly retested it without major rejection. Recent 1-hour candles show small bodies with minor upper/lower shadows—consolidation indicative of accumulation before a decisive break.

3. Volume Analysis

• Historical Volume: Sharp pick-up in volume during the June low rebound and July rally; decreasing volume on small consolidations, implying little selling interest at current levels.
• Recent Sessions: Highest volumes observed during advances, especially on up-candles, suggesting conviction among buyers. Dips to $0.155/$0.158 see increased participation, reinforcing this as a strong demand zone.

4. Moving Averages (MA)

• 50 MA (Daily): Sloping upward, just below spot price near $0.155 — favorable for bulls and a clear momentum confirmation.
• 200 MA (Daily): Flattening, currently at ~$0.165. The convergence between price, resistance, and the 200MA may create a springboard for a breakout if buyers persist.
• Short-Term MA (Hourly, 10/20): All trending above and supporting the price since July 6, confirming micro-uptrend. No bear cross detected.

5. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Daily RSI: 60–62 — moderately bullish but not extended, allowing further upside potential before reaching overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Fluctuates between 57–64, moving in tandem with price. No reversal divergence present; momentum remains healthy.

6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily & 4h MACD: Bullish cross earlier this week, with the MACD line trending above the signal and histogram bars growing. No bearish reversal signals apparent.

7. Bollinger Bands

• Current Positioning: Price is hugging the upper band on intraday charts and expanding, indicative of a trend in progress. Bands are widening after a squeeze—confirms higher volatility ahead.

8. Fibonacci Levels

• Retracement Levels:
  • From May’s high to June’s low: Key 23.6% level sits at $0.159/$0.16 (recently broken up), while the 38.2% level is at $0.166–$0.167. A breakout above $0.162 sets up extension targets at $0.166 (immediate) and then $0.172 (50% Fibo).

9. Order Flow & Market Depth

• Recent Tapes: Higher bid stacking observed near $0.158/$0.159, while the $0.162–$0.163 asks are thinning, suggesting limited supply and a high probability of short-term breakout if upward pressure persists.

10. Elliott Wave Perspective

• Clear 5-wave impulsive structure up from June 23 bottom to June 30 top, followed by a wave-2 correction ending July 4. This suggests HBAR has started wave-3, which is often the strongest advance in Elliott cycles.

11. Sentiment & Correlated Assets

• Altcoin segment is stabilizing while large-caps post minor gains — HBAR’s outperformance shows relative strength.
• July’s general recovery in sentiment and low beta for HBAR limit further downside.

12. Risk Management Considerations

• Support at $0.155–0.158 is strong; below $0.153 would invalidate the near-term bullish thesis and trigger stop losses.
• The ascending triangle pattern is mature and close to resolving — failure to break out in 24h could lead to a retest of lower support but odds favor the upside.

13. Synthesis and Probability Assessment

• Nearly all indicators align bullishly: price is above all key moving averages, the macro pattern is constructive, buying volume is dominant, and momentum has room to run. The risk/reward is optimal for a breakout trade, especially if the spot price is $0.160.

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Predictive Outlook: Next 24 Hours

• Price is likely to attempt a clean breakout above $0.162 resistance. Momentum and order book dynamics suggest a move toward $0.166–$0.167, with a chance for an overshoot toward $0.170–$0.172 should market-wide sentiment improve.
• Downside risk is contained by strong support at $0.155; a close below $0.152 would negate this thesis.

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Recommendation

• Action: BUY (Initiate a long position)
• Open Price: $0.160 — Optimal entry as price compresses before breakout
• Close Price (Target): $0.167 — Conservative target at Fibonacci and chart resistance; consider trailing stops if breakout accelerates

Aggressive traders may target $0.170+, but $0.167 offers a high success probability with strong momentum and technical alignment.

Summary: Technicals, momentum, and volume context all favor a bullish breakout in the next 24 hours; the risk/reward for a long trade from $0.160 is highly favorable, with a first target at $0.167.