Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Hedera (HBAR)

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

Daily Chart Overview (May 2025 - August 3, 2025):

• Strong Uptrend Initiated Mid-July: The chart shows a large upward movement began around July 9-13, with prices rising sharply from the $0.17-0.19 range to a peak above $0.30 before pulling back. This movement was coupled with massive volume spikes (e.g., >1.7B on July 13 and >1.3B on July 14), signaling strong market participation and momentum.
• Pullback and Base Formation: After the July 17-21 run-up (highs above $0.28), a retracement developed with support consistently emerging in the $0.23–$0.25 region, suggesting demand absorption and a likely accumulation base.

Recent Intraday Structure (Aug 3, 2025):

• Today’s Action: After a recent low at $0.23 (Aug 3, 21:00), HBAR rallied to $0.2499 and settles near $0.2479. Intraday, the asset established a series of higher lows from $0.23 to $0.2499, implying a bullish microstructure.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Climax & Cooling: Volume peaks on July 13-14 and again July 26-27 (>1B+) corresponded with price surges, suggesting potential blow-off and local tops. The recent days (Aug 1-3) show declining but still robust volume, indicating that while speculative fervor has cooled, significant participation remains at current levels.

3. Moving Averages (Estimated)

• Short-Term MA (7-14d): The estimated 7-14 day moving average is around $0.26 (given July closes), with price currently below this, often signaling a neutral or mildly bearish short-term stance.
• Medium-Term MA (30d+): The 30-day average likely sits near $0.24, which the price has just reclaimed, flipping it from resistance to tentative support—a bullish technical event if sustained!

4. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance:
  • $0.255–0.260 (recent swing high, short-term sellers expected)
  • $0.278–0.291 (previous range highs)
• Major Support:
  • $0.24–0.247 (intraday demand zone, multiple touches)
  • $0.233–0.230 (recent pullback lows)

5. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Analysis

• Daily Structure: Recent daily candles show long lower wicks (buyers defending), with the most recent price rallying above yesterday’s close—the hallmark of demand overwhelming supply.
• Intraday (Hourly): The last 12 hours form a mini bullish flag, with a breakout possible if $0.250 is cleared on volume.

6. RSI & Momentum (Estimate)

• With prices having sharply pulled back from recent highs, RSI could be in the mid-40s to low-50s, recovering from overbought territory and offering new room for upward momentum.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• Swing Draw: From July’s swing low ($0.23) to the recent high ($0.30), the 50–61.8% retracement lies between $0.245–$0.26—where price is currently oscillating, suggesting a decisive area for the next move.

8. Volume Profile/VWAP

• Heavy Recent Trading Volume: Most recent trading volume has clustered between $0.24-0.26, indicating this is a high-liquidity, fair-value zone where acceptance by both bulls and bears is high. A breakout above $0.255 on rising volume will likely attract new buyers.

9. Volatility and ATR

• ATR (Average True Range): Recent increased ATR (as evidenced by large daily swings) suggests further follow-through volatility is likely in the next 24 hours.

10. Order Flow & Liquidity Analysis (Order Book Action)

• The lack of immediate collapse after swift pullbacks and the ability to reclaim $0.24–$0.247 zones hints at strong dip-buying and market support just below current prices.

11. Sentiment & Exhaustion

• While euphoria from July’s run appears to have cooled, the lack of heavy distribution and presence of repeated buy defenses imply consolidation and preparation for another leg up, especially as the market digests the prior parabolic move.

12. Composite Conclusion & 24-Hour Outlook:

• The market structure is solidly bullish in the short-to-medium term.
• HBAR is showing intent to reclaim higher levels, with $0.255–0.26 the first upside target and $0.278 possible if upward momentum persists. Downside risk is protected by stacked support at $0.24–0.233. The base-building over the past week, combined with sustained elevated volumes, argues for an imminent thrust higher barring any external shocks.

Thus, the optimal strategy is to BUY on a slight dip in the $0.246–0.247 zone, setting an initial profit target near major resistance ($0.259).

Trade Plan and Risk Management

• Entry: $0.247 (slight dip, structurally defended)
• Take Profit: $0.259 (previous resistance, conservative target given recent volatility)
• Optional Stop Loss: $0.238 (below near-term support, for effective risk control)

Approaches Utilized

• Price Action & Volume
• Candlestick analysis (micro & macro)
• Moving Average overlays
• Support/resistance mapping
• Fibonacci retracement
• RSI & momentum analysis
• Volatility and ATR
• Volume profile/VWAP
• Order flow/behavioral analysis

Final Note: If $0.259 is cleared on strong volume, a rapid move to retest $0.27+ is possible, so consider trailing stops for additional gains.