Step-by-Step Technical and Quantitative Analysis for Hedera (HBAR)

1. Chart Structure Review: Multi-timeframe Perspective

• Daily trend: In July 2025, HBAR broke out sharply from a consolidation at ~$0.15, rallied to a high of ~$0.30 by July 27, followed by a retracement toward $0.23 and a bounce to ~$0.29. Recent price action shows HBAR oscillating broadly between $0.23-$0.29.
• Recent 4h/1h bars: From July 31, HBAR sold off from $0.27 to a local low of $0.23 on August 2, then rebounded into the $0.25 area. Today’s intraday candles (August 4) show higher lows and slight upward momentum, albeit with considerable intra-candle wicks (volatility).

2. Trend Analysis: Higher Timeframe Structure

• Moving Averages (EMA/SMA):
  • The 50-day MA sits around $0.21 (support in July’s breakout), while fast MAs (10-20 period) on the 4h/1h chart align near $0.25–$0.26, trending sideways, indicating a battle between bulls and bears at this level.
• Trend conclusion: After a parabolic rally and initial retrace, HBAR has formed a secondary base in the $0.24–$0.26 area; the bounce from $0.23 on August 2 suggests renewed buy interest.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance: $0.255–$0.26 (recent 4h highs), $0.27, $0.29–$0.30 (major rally high)
• Key Support: $0.245 (intraday pullbacks) and strong base at $0.23 (August 2 pivot low)
• Volume Profile: The highest recent volumes occurred between $0.25–$0.28, showing strong positioning, while current price ($0.25) sits atop a high-volume cluster—typically supportive of short-term swings.

4. Candlestick and Price Pattern Analysis

• August 2: Strong doji/hammer pattern on heavy volume, indicative of capitulation and new buyers stepping in.
• August 4 (intraday): Back-to-back candles with long lower shadows, suggesting demand on pullbacks; but upper wicks near $0.255 highlight supply and resistance. The price is compressing toward a coil.

5. Momentum & Oscillator Analysis (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• RSI (14): Estimated at 52–55—neutral, but bouncing from oversold readings seen in the first two days of August.
• Stochastics/CCI: Showing upward cross from an oversold region—short-term buy signals align with price rebounding from support.
• MACD (4h): Histogram beginning to turn positive, with MACD line approaching signal line cross—momentum is shifting bullish.

6. Volatility and Volume Analysis

• ATR (volatility): Spiked in late July, declined as HBAR based at $0.24–$0.25, suggesting compression. Low volatility phases often precede a sharp move.
• Volume: The capitulation low at $0.23 (Aug 2) and subsequent rebound occurred on high volume, followed by a slight decrease on the way up (Aug 3/4), typical of a bullish reversal starting to mature.

7. Fibonacci Retracement and Extension

• Drawn from July low ($0.17) to July high ($0.30):
  • 0.618 retrace = ~$0.22 (major support); 0.382 = ~$0.24; intraday price has respected these levels.
  • Holding above $0.236 retracement (~$0.25) reflects ongoing bullish structure.

8. Price Action Cluster and Liquidity Analysis

• Order book behavior: Recent price gravitation and bounce around $0.25 match visible high liquidity and historical volume cluster—this typically strengthens support and acts as a launchpad for upward moves.

9. Quantitative & Pattern Approach

• V-shaped recovery: The sharp spike in price/volume on August 2 suggests a V-reversal. Current consolidation is a typical continuation pattern after an initial reversal impulse.
• Bollinger Bands: Price coiling near the midline after touching the lower band on Aug 2–3, now moving upward, suggest upside expansion is likely if price can clear $0.255.

10. Sentiment/Contextual Notes

• Behavior after parabolic move: Corrections followed by strong bounces on high volume often precede secondary legs higher, especially if price can reclaim and hold above the lower high of the last swing (here, $0.255).
• No major exhaustion yet: RSI and MACD have not yet diverged bearishly, indicating the rally could continue if resistance is broken.

11. Scenario Planning/Trade Playbook

• Bullish case:
  • A close above $0.255 on strong volume could see HBAR rally to test $0.267 and $0.28 in the next 24h, filling out the prior supply zone.
  • Volume structure supports further upside as sellers have exited on August 2’s capitulation.
• Bearish case:
  • Below $0.245, HBAR could retest $0.23–$0.235, but this is currently lower probability per supporting factors.

12. Risk Management and Order Placement

• Entry timing: Optimal entry is during minor pullbacks to the $0.249–$0.251 zone, coinciding with short-term EMA support and intraday volume clusters.
• Target: First significant resistance at $0.267 (July 19 high) and $0.279 (July 26/27 close). Conservatively, targeting the median of this range ($0.267) gives a strong risk/reward ratio with low drawdown probability given present technicals.
• Stop-loss (implied): A break below $0.245 closes the structure and invalidates the short-term reversal thesis.

Final Thesis & Probabilistic Outcome

Given:

• Current technical structure,
• Strong bull signals after high-volume bottom,
• Neutral-to-bullish oscillators,
• Market structure resilience at $0.25.

Conclusion: HBAR appears primed for a move upward with a high probability of retesting $0.267 in the next 24 hours. The optimal buy zone is at or just below the current price on minor intraday dips into $0.249–$0.251.

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Trade Plan:

• Buy (Long Position): Enter at $0.2508
• Target: $0.267
• Stop (not requested, but implied): $0.245