HBAR: Sell the Bounce Toward 0.22 — Lower High Likely Before Next Leg Down

HBAR | Multi-timeframe, multi-tool technical read (next 24h)

Executive summary and bias

• Directional bias (24h): Moderately bearish with risk of a reflex bounce first. Expect a sell-the-rip setup.
• Probable path: Small bounce into 0.217–0.221 area, then continuation lower toward 0.212 → 0.209 → 0.206. Invalidation on decisive reclaim of ~0.223–0.225 (prior intraday shelf and daily pivot/R1).
• Trade plan (short): Stalk a limit sell on a bounce into resistance; take profit near next daily support cluster.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily structure: Persistent sequence of lower highs/lows since the late-July peak (~0.305 on 7/27). August carved a broad descending channel with multiple rejections in the 0.25–0.27 zone and successive breakdowns of 0.245, 0.241, 0.235, 0.229.
• Most recent daily closes (Aug 29–31): 0.22799 → 0.22595 → 0.21892 show acceleration to the downside; 8/31 closed near the low of day (bearish).
• Intraday (hourly, 9/1): Early bounce to 0.2199 in the EU session faded; US hours traded 0.216→0.213–0.215 with lower highs and weak follow-through on upticks. Last print ~0.2144 is beneath the intraday VWAP/short MAs—classic bear-in-control tape.
• Key horizontal levels:
  • Supports: 0.2124 (S2 from 8/31), 0.209–0.210 (lower BB zone), 0.205 (June volume shelf / prior breakout retest), 0.200 psych.
  • Resistances: 0.2168–0.2185 (intraday supply/VWAP vicinity), 0.221–0.223 (hourly swing; daily pivot P=0.222), 0.2253 (R1), 0.229–0.233 (broken shelf), 0.239–0.243 (20D mean zone).

2. Trend tools

• Simple moving averages (daily):
  • SMA20 ≈ 0.243 (est.)—price ~12% below; slope down. Mean-reversion magnet above price but in a downtrend this often acts as dynamic resistance.
  • SMA50 ≈ 0.256 (est.)—well above; firmly bearish alignment (price < 20D < 50D).
  • SMA200: Not computable from the provided window; trend context already bearish.
• EMAs (hourly, qualitative): Price below 20/50-EMA; bearish alignment maintained most of the session with shallow pullbacks into EMAs sold.
• ADX/DMI (daily, qualitative): Trend strength moderate. DMI- likely > DMI+, ADX in low-20s—supports continuation but not yet capitulation.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI14 (daily, estimated low 30s): Near but not deeply oversold. In downtrends, RSI can “drift” sub-40 while price continues lower; expect rallies to stall at 45–50 RSI until a proper momentum low forms.
• StochRSI (daily): Likely recycling from oversold; bounce risk exists but typically resolves into another leg down unless price reclaims key MAs.
• RSI (hourly): Mid-40s; confirms weak bounces, no momentum thrusts.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid ~0.243; lower band estimated near 0.209–0.210. Price is riding the lower band—classic trend move. Lower-band rides often persist; bounces usually mean-revert partway then roll.
• Keltner Channels (daily): Bands widening on the recent drop; BB outside/near KC hints expansion, not a squeeze. Volatility regime supports a continuation leg within 24h.
• ATR14 (daily, est. ~0.011–0.013): Implies a typical daily move of ~1.1–1.3 cents. From 0.218, a 1x ATR downside projects ~0.206–0.207—matches our profit target zone.

5. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; future cloud red; Tenkan < Kijun; Chikou under price. Full bearish stack. Kijun likely ~0.24–0.25 acting as strong overhead supply. Bias: rallies sold.

6. MACD (daily, qualitative)

• MACD below signal, both below zero. Histogram likely negative but not expanding aggressively; momentum remains down yet susceptible to short-lived countertrend bounces.

7. Volume/flow

• Volume trend: Elevated on down days into late August, lighter on minor green candles—distribution signature.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): No clear accumulation footprint; flow consistent with supply. No strong positive divergence yet on daily.
• Intraday prints show stronger activity on pushes down vs. bounces—supports fade-the-rip.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing high (0.3046 on 7/27) to recent swing low (0.2189 on 8/31):
  • 23.6% = ~0.239
  • 38.2% = ~0.252
  • 50% = ~0.262
  • 61.8% = ~0.272 Recent rebounds failed in the 0.258–0.262 zone, validating the fib stack as overhead supply. Near-term, price is below 0.236 retrace, implying bears control until at least 0.239 is reclaimed.

9. Pivot points (classic; using 8/31 H/L/C ~ 0.22846/0.21880/0.21892)

• P ≈ 0.22206; R1 ≈ 0.22532; S1 ≈ 0.21566; R2 ≈ 0.23173; S2 ≈ 0.21239.
• Today traded under S1 for much of the session—bearish. Rejection around P (0.222) would be an ideal short entry zone; first downside magnet S2 (0.2124) then extension to ~0.209–0.206.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Micro bear flag on hourly after the drop from 0.229→0.214: tight consolidation below 0.216–0.217, weak upside attempts. Pattern risk is a continuation break toward 0.210–0.208.
• Broader descending channel since early August. Price near lower half; a channel touch near ~0.210 is plausible within 24h.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott heuristics

• Wyckoff: Distribution up top in July, markdown through August. Current behavior = continuation of markdown with weak automatic rallies. No credible accumulation signatures yet (no spring + strong SOS).
• Elliott (very rough): August decline could be an impulsive C/3 wave from the 0.274–0.279 lower-high area. Within 24h, an intrawave iv bounce into 0.218–0.221 followed by v down into 0.206–0.209 fits the count.

12. Market profile/volume nodes (approx.)

• HVNs: 0.245–0.26 (heavy acceptance), 0.22–0.23 (secondary), though the latter is being converted into resistance.
• LVN air pockets: 0.210–0.206—if 0.212 gives way, the move into 0.206 can be swift.

13. Time-of-day and liquidity

• Weak US session bounces and stronger Asia/EU follow-through down have characterized recent action. Expect either a late-session/Asia drift lower or a small Asia bounce to 0.218–0.221 before sell pressure resumes.

14. Scenario map (24h)

• Base case (60%): Fade bounce to 0.218–0.221 → rollover → 0.212 test → extension 0.209–0.206; settle ~0.207–0.211.
• Mean reversion (30%): Push above 0.221 → tag 0.222–0.225 (P/R1) → sellers reassert; close sub-0.218.
• Squeeze (10%): Strong reclaim >0.225 with momentum; run to 0.229–0.233. Would negate the short setup for this horizon.

15. Risk management parameters (for context)

• Suggested invalidation for shorts: Sustained break and hold above 0.223–0.225 (hourly closes >0.225, or daily back above P+R1 zone). Beyond that, 0.229–0.233 is the next hard resistance.
• Expected move (1x ATR): ~±0.011–0.013. Targeting ~0.206–0.207 from a ~0.218 entry is aligned with 1x ATR downside.

Synthesis and call

• Confluence for a tactical short: price under daily pivot and hourly MAs, daily lower-band ride, bearish MA alignment, weak momentum bounces, and fresh breakdown of 0.229/0.225 shelves. While daily RSI is near oversold, trend dynamics favor selling into 0.218–0.221.
• Therefore: Sell rallies; aim for 0.206–0.207 take-profit. Invalidation near 0.225.

Prediction (24h)

• Expect HBAR to trade 0.218–0.221 early, fail near 0.222, and slide toward 0.209–0.206. Close likely in the 0.207–0.211 band if continuation unfolds.