HBAR: Sell the Bounce Into 0.223–0.225 — Pivot Confluence Flags a Fade Setup

Executive summary

• Bias: Medium-term bearish; short-term corrective bounce underway.
• Plan for next 24h: Fade strength into 0.223–0.225 resistance; target a retrace back toward 0.214–0.2145. Preferred setup: short the bounce.
• Why: Price remains below declining daily moving averages and under the Ichimoku cloud, with strong confluence of resistance from pivot levels, prior supply, and Fibonacci retracements around 0.221–0.229. Momentum is recovering on the hourly but still weak on the daily, typical of a bear-market rally inside a broader downtrend.

1. Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend (since late July): Lower highs from 0.3046 (Jul 27) → 0.2916 (Jul 27–28) → 0.2749 (Jul 22) → 0.2636/0.2584 (late Jul/late Jul) → 0.2568 (Aug 22) → 0.2477–0.2486 (mid-Aug) → 0.2390–0.2417 (late Aug) → 0.229–0.223 (Aug 29–Sep 1). Sequence of lower highs confirms a persistent downtrend.
• Recent lows: 0.2311 (Aug 19) → 0.22799 (Aug 29) → 0.22595 (Aug 30) → 0.21892 (Aug 31) → 0.21406 (Sep 1). A clear progression of lower lows; Sep 1 produced the sharpest markdown of this leg.
• Today (Sep 2 intraday): Built a base 0.212–0.215 after a morning sweep to 0.2121 and rebounded to 0.2176–0.2201; current 0.2179 sits mid-range of the day, above the central pivot but below R1–R2 (details below). Hourly structure shows a nascent series of higher lows, typical of a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend.
• Key supply zones overhead: 0.221–0.224 (intraday pivot confluence and recent hourly rejection zone), 0.228–0.230 (late-Aug breakdown shelf), 0.239–0.241 (first major daily Fib retracement + 20-D SMA). Demand: 0.214–0.212 (Sep 1–2 lows), then 0.209–0.205 (projected S1–S2 zone if momentum rolls over).

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 0.2407 (calculated from the last 20 daily closes). Price is 9.5% below, and the average is sloping down—bearish.
• 50-day SMA: Qualitatively above 20-SMA (around mid-0.24s to low-0.25s given July’s higher prices), also declining—reinforces bearish regime.
• Short-term (hourly) EMAs: Price reclaimed the 20-hour and is near/just below the 50-hour; the 200-hour sits far above (~0.23–0.232 region), indicating there’s substantial overhead resistance before any trend change.
• ADX (qualitative): Daily trend strength remains moderate (likely low–mid 20s) after August’s persistent drift; -DI > +DI. On hourly, +DI has likely crossed above -DI during today’s bounce—typical of a short-lived countertrend move.

3. Momentum

• Daily RSI: Likely mid–high 30s after the month-long drawdown from 0.266 (Aug 13) to 0.214 (Sep 1). This indicates downside momentum has cooled but remains weak; no confirmed daily bullish divergence at the closing level.
• Hourly RSI: Recovered from oversold after the 12:00–15:00 UTC dip to ~0.212. Currently hovering in the 50–60 region intraday—neutral-to-slightly-bullish for short-term, but nearing mid-channel where rallies often stall in downtrends.
• MACD (daily): Histogram negative; signal lines below zero, pointing to a bearish backdrop. Histogram may be contracting slightly, reflecting the current bounce but not a confirmed reversal.
• MACD (hourly): Likely near or slightly above zero with a small positive histogram—consistent with the correction higher.
• Stochastics (daily): Emerging from oversold; can fuel a 1–2 day bounce, but the first strong resistance zone typically caps it in a bear phase.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: ~0.014–0.016. Implies a typical 1-day range of ~6–7% around here.
• 24h projection: From 0.2179, an ATR move suggests lows as low as 0.203–0.205 on stress or highs up to ~0.231–0.233 on a squeeze. Base case is contained by pivot bands (see below).

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner

• Daily Bollinger (20,2): Middle band ~0.241; lower band estimated ~0.210–0.212. Price tagged the lower band area around Sep 1 and rebounded. Typical mean reversion zone is the mid-band, but with the mid-band sloping down, it often acts as dynamic resistance, especially at the 0.239–0.241 confluence.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 2xATR): Center ~0.241, upper ~0.27, lower ~0.212. Price is close to the lower Keltner, consistent with a bounce but still below equilibrium.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; Kijun likely near ~0.247, Tenkan around ~0.233–0.236. Cloud (Senkou span) above price; Chikou below price and under the cloud. Net: bearish system state. Any rally into Tenkan (~0.234 area) often fails on first test in a downtrend.

7. Fibonacci confluence

• Major swing: 0.3046 (Jul 27 high) → 0.2189 (Aug 31 low). Retracements from the low: 23.6% ≈ 0.2392, 38.2% ≈ 0.2517, 50% ≈ 0.2618, 61.8% ≈ 0.2719. The first significant retracement sits right at the 20-D SMA and a dense price memory zone (0.239–0.241), forming a strong resistance cluster.
• Micro swing: 0.2568 (Aug 22 high) → 0.2141 (Sep 1 low). Retracements: 38.2% ≈ 0.2304, 50% ≈ 0.2355, 61.8% ≈ 0.2405. This nests with pivots and MAs to reinforce a stepped resistance ladder at 0.230–0.236 and 0.239–0.241.

8. Pivots (classical, based on Sep 1: H=0.2233, L=0.2115, C=0.2141)

• Pivot (P): (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.2163
• R1: 2P − L ≈ 0.2211
• S1: 2P − H ≈ 0.2092
• R2: P + (H−L) ≈ 0.2281
• S2: P − (H−L) ≈ 0.2044 Current sits just above P (0.2163) and below R1 (0.2211). A push into 0.221–0.223 aligns with R1 and recent intraday supply; a stronger squeeze could probe toward R2 (0.228), which is also a breakdown shelf from late August. Both zones favor short entries with defined risk.

9. Volume, OBV, and Wyckoff read

• Volume pattern: Selling days near month-end (Aug 29) showed heavier activity versus bounce days—distribution-like. The large mid-July thrust was followed by weeks of supply overcoming demand.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloped down through August, consistent with net distribution.
• Wyckoff: Post-distribution markdown appears ongoing; today’s bounce is likely an “automatic rally”/upthrust into supply rather than a sign of re-accumulation. Expect tests of resistance followed by renewed supply.

10. Donchian channels and breakout context

• 20-day Donchian low: ~0.2115 (Sep 1); high within 20 days near ~0.275–0.276 (Aug 14 intraday). Price hovers near the lower boundary—typical bounce area but still within a broad down-channel. No confirmed base built yet.

11. Intraday microstructure (hourly)

• The 12:00 UTC flush to 0.2121 was absorbed; since then, price formed higher lows and pressed to the 20:00 bar high 0.2176, then 0.2179 current. Hourly momentum improved but is stalling beneath 0.219–0.220 supply and will meet the R1 band at ~0.221. Expect liquidity hunt above 0.221 up to ~0.223–0.225, then likely sellers.
• VWAP (today, qualitative): Around the 0.215–0.216 area given the early dip and later recovery. Price is now modestly above VWAP, which favors a continuation grind higher intraday—but into resistance bands noted.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel/bear flag: The bounce slope is shallower than prior selloffs, typical of bear flags that resolve lower. Measured-move targets from recent ranges imply downside probes can revisit 0.212–0.209 if the flag breaks back down.
• Candles: Recent daily bodies show heavier downside bodies on down days; today intraday candles have upper wicks developing into 0.219–0.220, signaling supply arrival.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (45%): Squeeze into 0.221–0.224 (R1 and local supply), stall, rotate back to 0.214–0.215 by session end. This respects the pivot ladder and the dominant downtrend.
• Bull case (25%): Stronger squeeze toward 0.227–0.229 (R2 and breakdown shelf). Sellers defend; daily downtrend remains intact. Only a decisive reclaim and hold above ~0.230–0.235 would open a path to 0.239–0.241 (unlikely within 24h without news).
• Bear case (30%): Bounce fails below/at 0.221; price rolls over early, sweeps 0.212–0.214 and tests 0.209–0.210 (S1). If S1 fails, 0.204–0.205 (S2) becomes visible, though that likely requires a risk-off impulse.

14. Confluence check for the short setup

• Entry zone: 0.223–0.225 has triple confluence:
  • Classical R1 just below (0.2211) and R1-to-R2 stretch to 0.228.
  • Repeated late-Aug intraday supply and failed retests.
  • Hourly overextension risk near upper Bollinger bands and into a declining 50–200H average stack.
• Profit zone: 0.214–0.2145 sits above the Sep 1 close and near today’s VWAP/central pivot region; front-running deeper supports (0.212) to maximize fill probability.
• Invalidation (stop concept): Above 0.229–0.230 (clean break over R2 and the breakdown shelf) would invalidate the short thesis in the 24h window and warn of a push to 0.235.

15. Risk management notes

• Volatility is elevated enough that levels can be overthrown intraday. If shorting, size for a ~0.006–0.007 adverse move (to 0.229–0.230) and target ~0.009–0.011 reward (to ~0.214), keeping R:R ≥ 1.4–1.7.
• If the bounce accelerates beyond 0.229 with strong breadth/volume, reassess—momentum could aim at 0.235 then 0.239–0.241 where the 20-D SMA and 23.6% retracement sit.

Conclusion and actionable call

• The broader daily structure, MA alignment, Ichimoku state, and Fib/pivot confluences suggest the path of least resistance remains down. Today’s intraday strength looks corrective. I favor selling into 0.223–0.225 with a profit target near 0.214.

Prediction (next 24h)

• Likely high: 0.222–0.226 (liquidity sweep into resistance)
• Likely low: 0.212–0.214 (retest of base); stretch low risk to 0.209 if momentum sours.
• Net directional bias: Slightly lower from the entry zone; overall, a sell-the-bounce environment.