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HBAR icon
HBAR
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Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$0.2132
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T5k
Date
21:00
Analyzed

Hedera Price Analysis Powered by AI

HBAR coiling under the pivot: descending triangle points to a 0.213 sweep before any bounce

Executive summary

  • Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-neutral with a test of 0.217–0.214 likely before any reflex bounce. Probability-weighted path favors a marginal breakdown from the intraday base.
  • Trade idea: Short a bounce into 0.221–0.222, target the measured move into ~0.213.
  1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure
  • Daily trend: After the July spike to ~0.3046, HBAR has been in a broader corrective structure. September produced a rally into Sep 18 (high 0.2518) followed by a steady pullback. Current price 0.2195 sits below the rising structure from early September, indicating short-term downtrend.
  • Recent market structure: Lower highs from Sep 18 → Sep 21 → Sep 22; lower lows sequence intact. Today’s session is an inside day consolidation near support, typical of a bearish continuation pause.
  • Intraday (hourly) structure 9/23: Series of descending highs (0.2248 → 0.2236 → 0.2236 → 0.2209) against a flat base near 0.2190. This is a text-book descending triangle, typically bearish when forming beneath the 20D mean.
  1. Key levels (daily)
  • Support cluster: 0.2178 (88.6% Fib of the 0.2141→0.2518 swing), 0.2140–0.2146 (Bollinger lower ~0.2145; early-Sep swing low 0.2141; S1 pivot ~0.2130), then 0.2112 (early-Sep intraday low zone).
  • Resistance cluster: 0.2215–0.2239 (intraday supply and daily pivot P=0.22385), 0.2266–0.2290 (recent breakdown shelf), 0.2331 (R1), 0.237–0.240 (Fib 38.2%/prior distribution), 0.245–0.248 (heavy supply zone).
  1. Moving averages and mean reversion
  • SMA20 (approx): 0.2325 (calculated from the last 20 closes). Price is 5.6% below SMA20 → bearish momentum with mean-reversion risk above.
  • SMA50 (approx): ~0.245 (visual estimate from August–September closes). Price is below SMA50 → intermediate trend still corrective.
  • Read-through: With price below both 20/50-day MAs, rallies into 0.226–0.234 are likely to encounter supply.
  1. Volatility and bands
  • ATR(14) (daily, est): ~0.010–0.011. Implies typical 24h range of ~4.5–5.0% from current price.
  • Bollinger Bands (20,2; est): Mid ~0.2325, lower ~0.2145, upper ~0.2505. Price is hovering a few ticks above the lower band, often a bounce zone—but after a high-volume down day, lower-band walks are common.
  • Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 2×ATR): Center ~0.2325; lower ~0.211; upper ~0.254. Price is nearer the KC lower rail → downside momentum regime persists, but proximity suggests elastic risk of short-covering pops.
  1. Momentum and oscillators
  • RSI(14) (qualitative): Likely high-30s/low-40s, not yet oversold → room to probe lower supports before strong mean reversion.
  • MACD (12/26/9; qualitative): Bearish cross with expanding negative histogram post 9/22 marubozu. Momentum remains to the downside.
  • Stochastic: Likely sub-50 and curling down on daily; intraday stochastic shows repeated failures near overbought on weak bounces—consistent with sell-the-rip.
  1. Volume, flows, and breadth
  • Volume profile: 9/22 selloff (395M) > recent average, validating the breakdown. Subsequent consolidation on lighter volume = classic bear flag/triangle behavior (price resting, volume contracting).
  • OBV/Accum-Distrib (qualitative): Distribution since 9/18 top; no evident accumulation at current level yet.
  1. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)
  • Price below Tenkan and Kijun; Span A/B (cloud) likely 0.24–0.25—HBAR trades below the cloud (bearish). Chikou likely beneath price and below cloud → bearish state.
  1. Fibonacci mapping of the Sep swing
  • Swing low (Sep 1): 0.2141; swing high (Sep 18): 0.2518. Retracements: • 38.2%: 0.2374; 50%: 0.2329; 61.8%: 0.2285; 78.6%: 0.2221; 88.6%: ~0.2178.
  • Price sits between 78.6% and 88.6% retrace; a common “last line” before a full retest of the origin (0.2141). If 0.2178 folds, 0.214–0.2145 becomes the magnet.
  1. Classic pivots for 9/23 (derived from 9/22 H/L/C)
  • Pivot P: 0.2239; R1: 0.2331; R2: 0.2440; S1: 0.2130; S2: 0.2037.
  • Price is below P and between P and S1 → bearish intraday bias; S1 (0.2130) aligns with measured move targets and the Bollinger/Keltner lower zones.
  1. Pattern diagnostics (hourly)
  • Descending triangle: Highs 0.2248 → 0.2236 → 0.2236 vs. flat base ~0.2190. Height ≈ 0.0058. Breakdown below 0.219 projects ~0.219 - 0.0058 = 0.2132 (measured move), matching daily S1/Fib confluence.
  • Bear flag possibility: Post-9/22 drop, price drifted laterally with slight upward bias into supply; failure to reclaim pivot bolsters breakdown odds.
  1. Scenario analysis (24h)
  • Base case (≈55–60%): Triangle resolution lower. Price slips 0.219 → 0.2178 (88.6% Fib) → probes 0.2145–0.2130 (BB lower / S1) where responsive bids emerge. Typical close near 0.217–0.219 after a bounce.
  • Alt scenario (≈25–30%): Failed breakdown and short-covering pop to 0.221–0.2239 (pivot), possibly stretching to 0.226–0.229 (prior shelf) before fading. This is the preferred entry zone for shorts.
  • Low-prob tail (≈10–15%): Strong reversal day reclaims 0.229–0.233 (R1/50% Fib) and squeezes toward 0.237–0.240. Would require a catalyst and expanding volume; not baseline.
  1. Risk/reward and execution plan
  • Short entries: Prefer fades into 0.221–0.2225 (micro supply and under pivot). A conservative alternate is a momentum short on a decisive hourly close <0.2187 with rising volume.
  • Profit-taking: First target 0.2145–0.2130 (confluence: BB lower, S1, triangle measured move). Front-run liquidity at ~0.2132–0.2142.
  • Invalidation (for planning): A sustained reclaim above 0.2266–0.2285 (Fib 61.8% and broken shelf) weakens the short and opens path to 0.233–0.237.
  1. Synthesis and verdict
  • Confluence of: price below 20/50D MAs, MACD bearish, trading below daily pivot, clear intraday descending triangle, deep Fib retrace not yet rejected, and heavier down-volume on 9/22 → favors a continuation probe lower before any durable mean reversion.
  • Given the setup, the higher-odds tactical play for the next 24h is Sell the bounce into 0.221–0.222 with a target near 0.213.

Projected path next 24h

  • Expected range: ≈ 0.212–0.230 (ATR-context). Base path: 0.221 test → roll to 0.218 → flush toward 0.214–0.213 → rebound to ~0.217–0.219 by end of window.