HBAR coiling under 0.181: Ascending triangle points to a 24-hour push toward 0.186

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for HBAR/USD (current ~0.17711)

1. Market regime and context

• Regime shift: A sharp volatility shock on 2025-10-10 (daily low ~0.0976, close ~0.1640) reset the structure from a prior 0.21–0.25 range to a lower value area 0.16–0.19. Since the shock, price has been mean-reverting upward but remains well below longer-term averages, implying a short-term recovery within a broader medium-term downtrend.
• Post-shock behavior: After the capitulation candle (10 Oct), we saw a relief rally to ~0.1955 (13 Oct), then a pullback to ~0.1626 (17 Oct), and a series of higher lows into today. This suggests stabilization and early-stage rebuilding of bullish structure on intraday horizons.

2. Structure by timeframe

• Daily (D1): • Trend: Medium-term still bearish (price below 20/50DMAs) but short-term attempting a base above 0.162–0.168. • Pivots: Key support cluster 0.1626 (17 Oct close/low zone) → 0.1671 (20 Oct intraday low). Key resistances 0.1809–0.1810 (today’s 1h high), 0.1857 (12 Oct close), 0.1904 (14 Oct close), 0.1955 (13 Oct high). • Candlestick evolution: Post-17 Oct sequence shows higher lows (0.1626 → 0.1659 → 0.1704 → 0.176–0.177 region today) and tests of ~0.181. That’s constructive for a 24h push toward the 0.185 area if resistance gives.
• Hourly (H1): • Micro-trend: Higher lows from 00:00 UTC (0.1687) → 06:00 (0.1764) → 16:00 (0.1748) → 19:00 (0.1755), with repeated taps of 0.1806–0.1810. This maps to an ascending triangle: rising base (0.168 → 0.175) under a horizontal lid (~0.181). • Intraday behavior: Strength into EU/US overlap (peak ~13:00 UTC at 0.18098) and shallow pullbacks supported by volume near 0.175–0.176. Price is consolidating just below resistance—often a precursor to breakout if sellers cannot push it back down.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 10-day SMA (approx.): Using the last 10 daily closes prior to today sums ~1.751174; SMA10 ≈ 0.17512. Current price (~0.1771) is just above SMA10 → short-term momentum turning up.
• 20–50 day SMAs: Given the July–Sep regime (mostly 0.22–0.26) and the recent drop, SMA20 is estimated ~0.21–0.22 and SMA50 higher. Price remains below both → medium-term trend still down; rallies likely meet supply into 0.19–0.22.
• EMAs (approx.): EMA8 ≈ 0.173–0.174 and EMA21 ≈ 0.184–0.186. Price above EMA8 but below EMA21 → transitional state; a push through 0.181–0.186 would bolster bullish continuation on a 1–3 day horizon.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14, Daily): Post-crash recovery implies RSI lifted off oversold; current structure suggests mid-40s to near-50. That’s neutral-to-slightly-bullish with room to expand before overbought.
• RSI (14, H1): Intraday swings show repeated tests of 0.181 without overextension, suggesting RSI hovering around 50–55. This supports a constructive setup: momentum is positive but not yet stretched.
• MACD (Daily): Likely sub-zero but rising histogram since 10 Oct → momentum improving though not fully confirmed.
• MACD (H1): Positive and flattening during the 0.180 tests; a fresh bullish cross on a drive through 0.181 would align momentum with price structure.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• ATR (Daily, est.): Elevated post-10 Oct; recent daily ranges imply ATR14 ≈ 0.015–0.020. A 24h move of ~4–6% is plausible.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): 20SMA center likely above price (~0.21+). Price rebounded from the lower band last week and is migrating toward the mid-zone; on H1, bands are tightening into resistance—pre-breakout compression.

6. Volume, liquidity and VWAP context

• Daily volume: Spike on 10 Oct then elevated in subsequent sessions; the heaviest transactions cluster around 0.17–0.18, building a volume shelf near 0.175.
• Intraday: Notable activity at 03:00–06:00 UTC and 16:00–19:00 UTC today, with buyers defending 0.175–0.176 and absorbing dips. Sellers have not forced a breakdown despite multiple shots.
• Anchored VWAP (from 10 Oct shock, qualitative): Given the long consolidation around 0.17–0.18, anchored VWAP likely sits close to current price, acting as a battleground; holding above it favors a drift to the next supply zone (0.185–0.190).

7. Fibonacci, pattern confluence, and levels

• Swing mapping: From 17 Oct swing low 0.1626 to 13 Oct rebound high 0.1955: • 38.2%: ~0.1848 • 50%: ~0.1790 • 61.8%: ~0.1731 Price oscillated between 0.173–0.181 today, repeatedly respecting the 50%/61.8% band—classic mean-reversion pivot before a trend attempt.
• Pattern: Ascending triangle on H1 with horizontal resistance ~0.181 and rising support (0.1687 → 0.1750). Measured move target from a confirmed break could reach ~0.188–0.190 (triangle height ~0.006–0.007 added to 0.181).

8. Support and resistance map (precise from data)

• Supports: S1 0.1750–0.1760 (intraday defended zone). S2 0.1717–0.1720 (19 Oct hourlies). S3 0.1671 (20 Oct early low). S4 0.1626 (17 Oct low/close area).
• Resistances: R1 0.1806–0.1810 (today’s lid). R2 0.1857 (12 Oct close). R3 0.1904 (14 Oct close). R4 0.1955 (13 Oct high). R5 0.2000 (psychological).

9. Probabilistic path for next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Gradual grind higher, break and close of H1 above 0.181, extension into 0.185–0.188, with intraday dips bought near 0.175–0.176.
• Alt scenario (25–30%): One more liquidity sweep into 0.1748–0.1750 or even 0.1717 to run stops, then reversal up, again targeting 0.181+ later in the session.
• Bear risk (15%): Failure under 0.1748 leads to a heavier flush to 0.1717; loss of 0.1717 increases odds of retesting 0.1671. Only a daily close back below ~0.170 would re-open the 0.162–0.167 range as the primary value area.

10. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Thesis: Short-term uptrend within broader downtrend; momentum constructive, volatility compressing under resistance. Ascending triangle plus 0.5–0.618 Fib confluence around 0.175–0.179, repeated defense of 0.175, and improving intraday breadth favor a push to the 0.185–0.188 supply zone over the next 24h.
• Entry logic: Prefer a patient limit buy slightly below spot where buyers consistently defended (0.175–0.176). This improves R:R while aligning with structure. If breakout chases occur, be aware of increased slippage and potential throwback.
• Target logic: First objective the prior daily close shelf at 0.1857–0.1860. If momentum is strong post-break, extensions to ~0.188–0.190 are possible, but 0.1859 is a prudent 24h target given overhead supply and the medium-term downtrend backdrop.
• Invalidation (risk management guidance): A decisive H1 close below ~0.1748 weakens the setup; a move under 0.1717 likely delays the breakout and risks a return to 0.1671. While not part of the requested fields, a protective stop in the 0.1715–0.1720 area is consistent with the thesis.

Conclusion: Bias modestly bullish for the next 24 hours. Favor a Buy with a limit near 0.1762–0.1765, aiming for 0.1857–0.1860. Expect chop around 0.179–0.181 before resolution, with Asia/EU hours prone to a final dip buy opportunity.