HBAR: Golden-Pocket Pullback Sets Up a Tactical Long Toward Pivot R1

Note: This is an educational, data-driven market analysis, not financial advice. Crypto is highly volatile; manage risk and position sizing accordingly.

1. Market structure and context

• Regime shift: After the 10 Oct capitulation (intraday low ~0.0976, close ~0.1640), HBAR formed a rising swing structure of higher lows (10/17 ~0.1626 → 10/20 ~0.1758 → 10/26 ~0.1799 → 10/27 ~0.1845 close). Today (10/28) it broke out to a new local high (~0.2191) before retracing to ~0.1947.
• Key levels from recent price action: • Resistance cluster: 0.2050–0.2065 (prior supply + intraday VWAP zone + daily 20SMA vicinity), 0.210–0.212 (pivot R1), 0.216–0.219 (today’s spike high and supply).
  • Supports: 0.201–0.2028 (50%–38.2% retrace band top), 0.1978 (50% retrace from today’s move), 0.1928 (61.8% golden pocket), 0.189–0.190 (daily pivot memory and S/R flip), 0.1865 (pivot S1 from today’s candle set), 0.1784 (S2).
• Volume: Breakout leg from ~0.201 to ~0.216–0.219 printed strong hourly volume (notably 06:00 UTC). Pullback occurred on lower and normalizing volumes, typical of a bullish impulse followed by mean reversion.

2. Multi-timeframe Fibonacci analysis

• Intraday (10/27 low 0.1766 → 10/28 high 0.2191):
  • 38.2%: ~0.20285; 50%: ~0.19783; 61.8%: ~0.19280.
  • Current price (~0.1947) sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement (golden pocket), a high-probability reaction zone in an ongoing impulsive leg if trend integrity holds.
• Extension targets if bounce resumes: 1.0x prior swing retest ~0.219, 1.272 ~0.226, 1.618 ~0.235–0.246 zone (over 24h ambitious; more realistic is 0.205–0.212).

3. Moving averages and trend indicators (daily)

• Short MAs: 5D SMA ≈ 0.175 (est) below price; 10D ~0.173–0.176 (est), price > both → bullish short-term momentum.
• 20D SMA likely near ~0.205–0.206 given Oct’s prior highs; price currently below → near-term overhead resistance aligns with supply around 0.205–0.206.
• 50D SMA estimated ~0.21–0.22 (owing to Aug/Sep higher prices), reinforcing resistance at 0.210–0.212.
• Takeaway: Short-term uptrend intact; medium-term trend still below key MAs, suggesting rallies meet supply near 0.205–0.212.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: climbing out of mid-40s to low-50s post-crash; not overbought → room to extend higher.
• Hourly RSI: surged on breakout then mean-reverted toward neutral/low-40s on pullback; now sitting near support, consistent with a bounce attempt from the golden pocket.
• MACD (daily): Bullish crossover likely occurred after 10/17; histogram positive/flattening; still below zero line, which typically caps initial rallies around the 20–50SMAs before a sustained trend shift.
• Stochastic/CCI (hourly): Likely recovering from oversold after the late-session selloff, supportive for a tactical long into resistance.

5. Volatility and expected move

• Today’s true range (H-L) ≈ 0.0244.
• 24h expected move: ±0.015–0.022 from current, given elevated ATR post-crash and today’s expansion.
• Anticipated 24h range: 0.186–0.210 base case; stretched bullish tail risk to 0.212–0.216 if momentum revives; stretched bearish if 0.189 breaks, to 0.186 then 0.178–0.180.

6. Volume profile, VWAP, and liquidity

• Intraday VWAP (approx) skewed upward by the strong early-session rally (likely ~0.204–0.207). Price is currently below VWAP, typical of a completed impulse and pullback. A reclaim of intraday VWAP/0.202–0.205 would likely trigger a fast move to 0.210.
• High-volume nodes: 0.205–0.212 (historical Oct supply); low-volume pocket: 0.201–0.205 (can be traversed quickly once reclaimed).
• Liquidity: Stops likely sit under 0.192–0.190 (61.8% zone/psych 0.19). A sweep into 0.192–0.193 followed by absorption would be a textbook long trigger.

7. Ichimoku (heuristic)

• Daily: price below cloud (macro still corrective), Tenkan > Kijun cross in recent sessions suggests early bullish momentum; Kijun near ~0.205–0.206 acting as magnet/resistance.
• 1H/4H: earlier cloud break on the rally, with a pullback toward/below Kijun consistent with a reset; bullish again on closes back above ~0.201–0.203.

8. Parabolic SAR and ADX (heuristic)

• Parabolic SAR on hourly likely flipped above price during pullback; a re-flip below price on reclaim >0.201–0.203 would confirm trend resumption.
• ADX rising post-breakout signals trend quality; DI+ > DI- earlier; pullback may compress; renewed expansion likely if we clear 0.205.

9. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Count: Wave 1 (0.1626→0.1845), Wave 2 (~0.1705), Wave 3 (to ~0.219), now Wave 4 retracing 50–61.8% (0.198–0.193). If valid, Wave 5 objective within 24h sits into 0.209–0.216; broader extension could target ~0.226 in 48–72h if momentum persists. Invalidation of this count occurs on decisive loss of 0.189–0.190.

10. Candles and patterns

• 10/27 closed at the high (~0.1845), a strong body candle.
• Today intraday printed a long upper wick up to ~0.219 then retraced; if the day closes near ~0.195, it reads as a shooting-star-like print, which usually implies a near-term consolidation before trend resolution. Context matters: because it pulled back into the 50–61.8% fib on lighter volume, it also resembles a healthy reset of an impulse.

11. Pivots for the next session (derived from 10/28 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.20281; R1 ≈ 0.21095; R2 ≈ 0.22721; R3 ≈ 0.23535.
• S1 ≈ 0.18655; S2 ≈ 0.17841; S3 ≈ 0.16214.
• Confluence: R1 matches our tactical profit zone (0.210–0.212). S1 aligns with deeper pullback risk if 0.189 fails.

12. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Price stabilizes above 0.192–0.195, reclaims 0.201–0.203, and tags 0.205–0.209 with an extension test to 0.210–0.212 (pivot R1).
• Bearish alt (25%): Failure at 0.201–0.203 leads to a break of 0.192–0.190; acceleration to 0.1865 (S1), possibly 0.182–0.180.
• Bullish tail (20%): Strong bid returns quickly, price clears 0.205 then 0.210; momentum squeeze tests 0.214–0.216; stretch to 0.219 retest if BTC strength coincides.

13. Trade plan logic

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within the 50–61.8% retracement (0.198–0.193), preferring entry close to the golden pocket (≈0.1928) with invalidation below 0.189.
• Rationale:
  • Confluence of fib support (50–61.8%), prior daily pivot memory (~0.194), and S/R flip from mid-Oct (~0.194–0.195).
  • Short-term trend up (price > 5/10D SMAs), momentum reset without structural break.
  • Clear upside magnet at 0.205–0.212 (20D/50D MAs + pivot R1 + volume node).
• Risk/Reward (illustrative): Entry 0.193, stop 0.1885 (−2.3%), target 0.211 (+9.3%), R:R ≈ 4:1. Adjust to personal risk tolerance.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Probability-weighted expectation favors a stabilization/bounce from 0.192–0.195 toward 0.205–0.212. Invalidated on decisive breakdown below 0.189–0.190. If the market reclaims 0.205 early, 0.210–0.212 becomes likely within the window; otherwise expect chop between 0.193 and 0.205 before resolution.