HBAR poised for continuation: Buy the 0.201 dip for a run toward 0.214

Instrument: Hedera (HBAR) USD Current price (last): 0.20318 Timeframe assessed: Daily + Hourly (last 24–72 hours emphasized)

1. Trend, Structure, and Levels

• Market structure (Daily): After the 10/10 capitulation wick to ~0.0976 and close at 0.1640, price established a series of higher lows and higher highs. Notable sequence: 0.1626 (10/17) → 0.1704 → 0.1726 → 0.1799 → 0.1845 → 0.1946 (10/28 close), with a swing high 0.2191 (10/28). Structure is a short-term uptrend within a still-recovering medium-term downtrend.
• Market structure (Hourly): Since yesterday’s large-volume day (10/28), price has consolidated between ~0.193–0.205 with higher lows intraday. The 0.200–0.201 area is acting as an intraday pivot/support; 0.204–0.205 capping for now.
• Key resistance zones: 0.2057 (Fib 23.6% of 0.1626→0.2191), 0.210–0.212 (round/near-term supply), 0.214–0.215 (Daily R1 / upper BB vicinity), 0.219–0.221 (recent rejection/supply shelf), 0.224–0.230 (late Sep/early Oct congestion and MA cluster).
• Key support zones: 0.200–0.201 (intraday pivot), 0.1975 (Fib 38.2%), 0.194–0.195 (10/28 close and intraday demand), 0.1908 (Fib 50%), 0.1842 (Fib 61.8%).

2. Moving Averages (Daily)

• 20SMA ≈ 0.175 (est). Price above: bullish short-term bias.
• 50SMA ≈ 0.213 (est). Price below: medium-term trend still not reclaimed; overhead resistance likely near 0.213–0.215.
• 100SMA ≈ >0.22 (est), consistent with larger downtrend from Aug/Sept levels.
• 8EMA/21EMA: 8EMA ~0.185–0.187; 21EMA ~0.174–0.176. Price > both EMAs → supportive of continued short-term momentum.

3. Oscillators

• RSI (Daily, est): upper 40s to mid-50s after pullback from the 0.219 spike. Neutral-bullish, room to advance before overbought.
• RSI (Hourly, est): mid-50s/60s; modest positive momentum but capped under 0.205.
• Stochastics (Daily, est): backing off from high levels post 10/28; still above midline → consolidation within uptrend.

4. Momentum and Trend Indicators

• MACD (Daily): Bullish cross occurred after 10/17 low; histogram positive but flattening with yesterday’s rejection wick. Bias still constructive unless price loses ~0.197–0.195.
• MACD (Hourly): Turned positive earlier today, but with small bars; suggests consolidation/baselining rather than strong thrust.

5. Volatility and Bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Middle ~0.175; upper band approx 0.215. 10/28 spike tagged or pierced upper band (0.219) and reverted inside—classic mean reversion. Current at 0.203 leaves upper band headroom to ~0.215.
• ATR14 (Daily, est): ~0.010–0.012. Implies next 24h typical band ±0.01–0.012; feasible range 0.193–0.215 from current.

6. Volume, OBV, and VSA

• Volume (Daily): 10/28 volume spike the largest in the dataset (~1.17B), signaling a strong attempt to break higher followed by supply at ~0.219. Despite the rejection, this often marks a regime change with elevated participation and sets a line-in-the-sand supply band 0.219–0.221.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since 10/17 indicating accumulation. The 10/28 spike is more likely initiation/transfer rather than distribution given subsequent holds above 0.194.
• VSA read: Wide spread up-day on 10/28 with a long upper wick → supply emerged at 0.219. Today’s narrower spreads and ability to hold above pivot 0.199–0.200 indicate absorption rather than aggressive distribution.

7. Fibonacci Mapping (Recent swing 0.1626 → 0.2191)

• 23.6%: 0.2057 (nearby resistance lid).
• 38.2%: 0.1975 (key pullback support).
• 50%: 0.1908 (secondary support).
• 61.8%: 0.1842 (failure line for the short-term uptrend). Current 0.203 trades between 23.6% and 38.2% retracements—typical shallow-to-moderate pullback zone supportive of continuation if 0.1975 holds.

8. Pivot Points (Classic, based on 10/28 H=0.2191, L=0.1844, C=0.1946)

• Pivot (P): 0.1994
• R1: 0.2143
• S1: 0.1797
• R2: 0.2340
• S2: 0.1647 Price above the daily pivot (0.1994) is a bullish intraday tell. R1 aligns with upper BB and MA resistance cluster—logical 24h target.

9. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan (~0.191) and likely above Kijun (~0.18), with a thin cloud ahead. This positioning supports a continuation attempt, though a flat-senko attraction could cause brief pullbacks to 0.197–0.195 if momentum fades.

10. Pattern Work

• Daily: 10/28 forms a long upper-wick candle at resistance—initially bearish—but the absence of follow-through lower and intraday support reclaim suggest a bull flag/pennant-like digestion under resistance.
• Hourly: Ascending triangle-style compression with flat lid ~0.204–0.205 and rising troughs ~0.198–0.201. A decisive break/hold over 0.2057 targets 0.210–0.214.

11. Elliott Wave (short-term count)

• Wave 1: 0.1626 → ~0.1810 (10/20)
• Wave 2: ~0.1810 → 0.1705 (10/21)
• Wave 3: 0.1705 → 0.2191 (10/28)
• Wave 4: 0.2191 → 0.1946 (end of 10/28)
• Wave 5 underway: targeting prior swing extension zone around 0.214–0.224 if 0.197–0.195 holds. Near-term (24h) objective biased to 0.210–0.214.

12. Regression Channel / Mean Reversion

• Short-term regression channel from 10/17: price mid-to-upper half of the ascending channel. Lower rail ~0.197, upper ~0.213. Mean reversion suggests dip-buys near 0.200–0.201 with target toward 0.212–0.214.

13. Scenario Analysis (24h)

• Bull case (~60%): Hold 0.199–0.201, break 0.2057 (Fib 23.6%) → push to 0.210–0.214 (R1/upper band). Catalyst: hourly momentum and post-absorption push.
• Base case (~30%): Range 0.197–0.205 persists; multiple attempts at 0.205–0.207; close near 0.205.
• Bear risk (~10%): Lose 0.1975 on volume → slide to 0.194–0.191 (Fib 50%). Strong bids expected near 0.191–0.195; trend integrity weakens only <0.190.

14. Confluence Summary

• Support confluence: 0.199–0.201 (intraday pivot + VWAP-like behavior), 0.1975 (Fib 38.2%), 0.194–0.195 (yesterday’s close and high-volume node).
• Resistance confluence: 0.2057 (Fib 23.6%), 0.210–0.212 (round/near-term), 0.214–0.215 (R1 + upper BB + 50SMA vicinity), 0.219–0.221 (supply shelf).
• With price above daily pivot and EMAs, and with OBV improving, bias is Buy-the-dip toward R1.

15. Risk Management (execution notes)

• Optimal entry: Limit buy near 0.201–0.2015, where micro pullbacks have been defended and risk can be defined against 0.1975.
• Suggested protective stop (not part of requested fields): 0.1960 (below Fib 38.2% and hourly swing base). This offers favorable R:R to a 0.213–0.214 target.
• Take-profit zone: 0.2125–0.2140 (just below R1 and beneath the 50SMA cluster to front-run supply). Partials could be taken at 0.209–0.210 if momentum stalls.

Conclusion and 24h Outlook

• Bias: Buy. Expect a grind higher if 0.199–0.201 holds, with a breakout attempt above 0.2057 targeting 0.210–0.214. A clean rejection and break below 0.197.5 would defer the move and risk a retest of 0.194–0.191, but current evidence favors continuation.