HBAR: Sell the Bounce Into 0.172–0.173 Supply; Target a Sweep of 0.166

Note: This is educational analysis, not financial advice. Manage risk and position sizing carefully.

1. Market state and context

• Instrument: Hedera (HBAR), spot
• Current price (last print): 0.16874
• Recent regime: After a sharp shock down on 2025-10-10 to ~0.164, HBAR bounced to ~0.205–0.211 (10/28–10/31) on heavy volume and then rolled over. Since 11/01, lower highs and lower lows have re-emerged; price is now hovering just above the October crash low, inside a broadly bearish daily trend.
• Intraday (hourly 11/05–11/06): A controlled bleed from 0.176–0.171 to 0.1687, with multiple failed attempts to reclaim 0.175–0.176 (clear intraday supply). Volumes thinning into the pullback, typical for a grind lower.

2. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily market structure: Lower highs: 0.245 (9/12) → 0.239–0.246 (9/10–9/12) → 0.205–0.211 (10/29–10/31) → 0.201–0.204 (11/01). Price remains below the prior distribution shelf (0.196–0.201) and trades near key higher-timeframe supports 0.168–0.166 and the crash pivot ~0.164.
• 4H/1H (proxy from hourly data): Descending channel / falling wedge characteristics since 10/29. The channel top aligns with 0.175–0.176; channel support sits ~0.167–0.166. Rejections at the channel midline (0.172–0.173) persist, confirming bearish control on rallies.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily EMAs/SMA (est.): • 20D SMA ≈ 0.186 (downward slope) • 50D SMA ≈ 0.210–0.215 (downward slope) • 200D SMA well above (strong bearish separation) Interpretation: Price is below the 20/50/200-day averages; the 20 below the 50, both sloping down: bearish alignment.
• 1H EMAs (9/21/50/200 approximations): Price trades below 21/50/200 EMA cluster. Reclaims have failed at ~0.175, indicating dynamic resistance at the MA stack.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): ~40–43, below midline; bearish but not oversold. Plenty of room for continuation lower before classical oversold.
• 1H RSI(14) (est. from intraday flow): ~35–45, making lower highs with price — momentum confirms downtrend; no strong bullish divergence printed near the last low at 0.1687.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a bear cross; histogram negative and recently expanding after the 10/28–10/31 distribution. Signals trend continuation risk.
• MACD (1H): Below zero for most of 11/05–11/06; weak rally attempts fail to flip the signal line, consistent with sell-the-rip conditions.
• StochRSI (1H) likely cycling from mid/low bands without breaking to sustained overbought, again favoring pops that fade.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.010–0.012. Expected 24h movement envelope from 0.1687 suggests a typical reach of ±0.006–0.009.
• 1H Bollinger Bands: Price spending more time in the lower band half; band walks are mild, implying controlled downside drift rather than panic.
• 20D Bollinger z-score (est.): (0.1687 − 0.186)/~0.011 ≈ −1.6. Moderately extended to the downside but not extreme; allows further slide or shallow mean reversion pops.

6. Volume, OBV, money flow

• Post 10/28 spike: Very high-volume thrust to 0.219 faded intraday and failed follow-through — classic distribution signature. Subsequent sessions show declining OBV, suggesting net outflows.
• MFI (daily, inferred): Sub-50 regime, consistent with distribution; no strong inflow signal near current levels.
• Intraday volume profile (last 24–48h): Value building in 0.170–0.173 with overhead supply at 0.175–0.176; price currently slipping below value, which often precedes a probe of the next demand pocket (0.168–0.166).

7. Key horizontal levels and order-flow context

• Supports: 0.1687 (current), 0.1670–0.1660 (channel support/round-number pocket), 0.1640 (10/10 crash close/low zone), then 0.1626 (10/17 close).
• Resistances: 0.1718–0.1732 (intraday pivot/23.6% fib), 0.175–0.176 (hourly supply/MA stack/Ichimoku kijun area), 0.179–0.185 (38.2–50% of post-crash leg), 0.196–0.201 (major daily supply shelf).
• Liquidity: Resting liquidity likely clustered just below 0.1680 and 0.1660; upside liquidity around 0.172–0.176 where short-term traders set stops over recent lower highs.

8. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Fib from 10/10 low (0.16399) to 10/29 high (0.20584): • 23.6% ≈ 0.1730 (present intraday cap) • 38.2% ≈ 0.1790 • 50% ≈ 0.1849 • 61.8% ≈ 0.1900 Price now below 23.6%, hovering near a retest of the origin (0.164–0.166) — a common probe area following failed rebounds.
• Measured move symmetry: The 11/01–11/03 leg down (~0.201 → ~0.175 = 0.026) projects a secondary leg from the 11/03 lower-high (~0.179) towards ~0.153 if fully extended; near term (24h), partial extension to ~0.165 is realistic within ATR.

9. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; Span A < Span B; Chikou below price and cloud — all bearish. Kijun resistance ~0.19–0.20 caps any strong bounce.
• 1H: Price below cloud; baseline (Kijun) aligns with ~0.174–0.176; frequent rejections beneath the cloud reflect persistent sell-pressure. Mean reversion to Kijun possible, but odds favor rejection rather than through-cloud trend reversal.

10. VWAP and pivots

• Anchored VWAP from 10/28 spike (rough): Currently above price (~0.176–0.179 zone), consistent with sellers in control since the distribution day. Attempts to reclaim aVWAP have failed.
• Classic pivots from 11/04 (H 0.17894, L 0.15939, C 0.16886): • P ≈ 0.16973, S1 ≈ 0.16052, R1 ≈ 0.18007. Price trades below P and well below R1; R1 sits near the prior rejection band. This setup typically favors shorting into P/R1 tests.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel/falling wedge on 1H: While wedges can break upward, confirmation requires a clean reclaim of 0.176 with expanding volume. To date, break attempts stall beneath supply.
• Bear flag risk: The post-10/28 distribution followed by a stair-step drift lower echoes a classic bear-flag continuation pattern on the daily scale.

12. Probabilistic 24h path (base case and scenarios)

• Base case (55%): Early-session bounce stalls in 0.172–0.1735; rejection resumes the drift lower toward 0.166–0.165, with a possible liquidity sweep to ~0.1648 before closing around 0.166–0.168.
• Range/mean-revert (30%): Hold 0.167–0.168, ping 0.172–0.174, and finish mid-range near 0.170–0.171.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong reclaim above 0.176 on volume opens 0.179–0.185; probability low without catalyst and given higher-timeframe headwinds.

13. Trade plan (tactical)

• Lean: Sell the bounce into overhead supply; the trend, momentum, and MA/Ichimoku posture favor short entries at resistance rather than chasing breakdowns at support.
• Entry (limit): 0.1728 (inside 0.172–0.174 supply and near the 23.6% retracement/pivot zone)
• Stop (discipline, not an order in this schema): 0.1766 (above repeated intraday highs/MA stack/1H Kijun) — contains prior fake-outs; invalidates the immediate short thesis.
• Take profit (24h objective): 0.1652 (above the 0.164–0.166 higher-timeframe demand to front-run liquidity and ATR reach). R:R ≈ (0.1728→0.1652 = 0.0076) / (0.1766→0.1728 = 0.0038) ≈ 2.0.
• Contingencies: • If not filled and price breaks 0.1680 with momentum, an alternate continuation short can be considered on a retest of 0.1680–0.1685, targeting 0.1648–0.1655 with a tighter stop above 0.1706. • If price reclaims and holds above 0.1766 on rising volume (bull surprise), stand down on shorts; a tactical long to 0.179–0.185 becomes viable but is outside the base-case plan.

14. Risk notes

• Near support entries can produce sharp squeezes; hence the preference to sell into 0.172–0.173 instead of chasing lows.
• Slippage risk rises around liquidity sweeps below 0.166; consider layered partial targets and avoid market orders into cascading moves.
• This plan is time-bound (next 24h); reassess if macro/market-wide crypto momentum shifts or if HBAR-specific news hits the tape.

15. 24-hour price prediction summary

• Expected range: 0.1648–0.1742
• Likely path: Minor bounce to ~0.172–0.173, rejection, drift to ~0.166–0.165 with a possible wick to ~0.1648, then settlement near 0.166–0.168 by 24h.

Execution checklist

• Place a sell-limit at 0.1728. If filled, set protective stop at 0.1766 and target 0.1652 within 24h. If price fails to bounce into supply within the next few hours, consider skip/alternate retest-short as noted.