HBAR’s Trend-Day Rebound: Buying the 23.6% Dip for a Push Toward 0.160

HBAR technical outlook (next 24h): exhaustive, step-by-step multi-tool assessment

1. Market state snapshot

• Instrument: Hedera (HBAR)
• Current price: 0.15179 (2025-11-23 21:57 UTC)
• Context: After a multi-week downtrend from late October highs (~0.20) to a Nov 21 low (~0.123), HBAR staged a strong intraday rebound on Nov 23 from ~0.1317 to a session high ~0.15493, followed by a shallow pullback to ~0.1505 and a bounce to ~0.1518.
• Bias timeframe: 24-hour tactical trade. Structure remains broadly bearish on the daily trend but intraday momentum turned bullish with a high-volume breakout.

2. Multi-timeframe trend analysis

• Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows since late Oct; closes stepped down from 0.20 area toward 0.13. Today’s rally lifts price back above the cluster of recent closes (0.136–0.151 range), but still well below the mid-November swing highs (~0.173–0.186). Daily trend is still down but attempting a rebound within a larger corrective structure (bear market rally characteristics).
• 4h trend (inferred): After basing ~0.130–0.132 on Nov 22–23, price broke upward in a series of higher highs/higher lows to ~0.155. This flips 4h momentum positive; however, a prior 4h supply zone at ~0.155–0.160 remains untested/partly tested.
• 1h trend (data provided): Clear bull impulse from 0.1317 to 0.1549 with rising highs/lows and volume expansion on the breakout candle (19:00 hour). Pullback from 0.1549 to ~0.1505 stayed above rising intraday supports, indicating a shallow retracement (bullish continuation odds improved).

3. Support/resistance mapping

• Intraday supports:
  • 0.1493–0.1496: 23.6% Fib retracement of today’s range (low ~0.1316 to high ~0.15493). First dip-buy zone; was partially tested (~0.1505).
  • 0.1460–0.1462: 38.2% Fib; coincides with earlier micro-structure shelf from 15:00–17:00 UTC.
  • 0.1432–0.1434: 50% Fib; midpoint of the day’s impulse; strong if deeper pullback.
  • 0.1406–0.1410: 61.8% Fib; confluence with late-morning consolidation.
  • 0.1360–0.1365: hourly consolidation cluster; near earlier VWAP estimates and pivot R2 (from prior day).
• Intraday resistances:
  • 0.1545–0.1550: Today’s high/mini-supply; first retest likely to encounter sellers.
  • 0.1595–0.1605: Round-number/extension target and prior liquidity; probable near-term cap if momentum wanes.
  • 0.1635–0.1680: Extension resistance and former daily support turned resistance; ambitious within the next 24h unless momentum accelerates.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI (1h, inferred): After a strong run to 0.1549, 1h RSI likely pushed into mid-60s to low-70s, then cooled on the pullback; currently in a constructive zone (~60–65), typical of bullish regimes where shallow pullbacks base above 50.
• MACD (1h, inferred from price/structure): Histogram positive and narrowing after the pullback; signal lines above zero. This reflects a momentum pause, not a reversal. A fresh uptick in histogram would favor a retest of 0.155.
• Daily momentum: Still negative on a multi-week basis but stabilizing; today’s large green day will lift daily momentum toward neutral, improving rebound odds into early week.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 1h Bollinger Bands: Price expanded to the upper band during the breakout (~0.155), followed by mean-reversion drift toward the band midline. Bands widened (volatility expansion). With price holding in the upper half of the bands, continuation patterns favor another upper-band test (0.154–0.156) if buyers maintain control.
• Daily bands: The crash and subsequent declines widened the bands; today’s strong green session likely tags or approaches the daily middle band soon, where sellers often test conviction. This argues for measured targets on a 24h horizon (0.159–0.161) rather than an immediate full trend reversal.

6. Volume, VWAP, and participation

• Intraday volume: Marked expansion on the breakout candle (19:00), confirming participation. Subsequent pullback saw lighter volume, a textbook bullish pattern (profit-taking rather than distribution).
• Session VWAP (anchored to today’s UTC session): With a low ~0.1317 and sustained trading above ~0.140–0.145 for much of the day, VWAP plausibly sits around mid-0.14s. Price remains above VWAP, indicating buyers are in profit and dip bids should appear above ~0.145–0.146.
• Volume profile (inferred): High volume node near ~0.145–0.147 from the midday consolidation; this is the first deeper support on any pullback that overshoots 0.149x.

7. Fibonacci analysis (today’s move)

• Range: Low ~0.13166 to High ~0.15493; Range ≈ 0.02327.
• Retracements from the high:
  • 23.6%: ~0.1494
  • 38.2%: ~0.1460
  • 50.0%: ~0.1433
  • 61.8%: ~0.1406
• Extensions (projected from low–high with current pullback base ~0.1505):
  • 1.000 (retest): ~0.1549 (double-top test likely)
  • 1.272: ~0.1599
  • 1.414: ~0.1620
  • 1.618: ~0.1654
• Takeaway: Holding above ~0.1494 keeps the shallow-retracement bull case intact with 1.272–1.414 extensions feasible in 24h (0.160–0.162).

8. Ichimoku (intraday, qualitative)

• Tenkan > Kijun on 1h after the breakout; price above the cloud. Cloud twist likely turned positive during the impulse. Pullback did not retest Kijun (~0.146–0.147 area), signaling strong trend health. As long as price stays above Kijun and within/above the rising cloud, continuation probability is elevated.

9. Elliott Wave perspective (intraday)

• Count: Impulsive 5-wave structure from 0.1317 to 0.1549 (wave 1), followed by an ABC pullback to ~0.1505 (wave 2). If correct, wave 3 targets extensions to 1.272–1.618 of wave 1 (0.160–0.165). The conservative 24h expectancy puts 0.159–0.162 as the likely achievable zone before a larger consolidation.

10. Candlesticks and price action

• Intraday: Series of bullish initiative candles with shallow upper wicks during the run-up, climax candle at the high, then orderly pullback with smaller-bodied candles and lower volume—more corrective than distributive. Hourly close back above 0.1515 shows dip absorption.
• Daily: If today closes above ~0.150, it forms a large bullish body off recent lows, a potential bullish outside day relative to the last few sessions. This often leads to at least one follow-through day unless capped by nearby supply (~0.160–0.165).

11. Pivot points (based on Nov 22 daily OHLC)

• Previous day (Nov 22): H 0.1330, L 0.1266, C 0.13165; Pivot P ≈ 0.13042; R1 ≈ 0.13424; R2 ≈ 0.13682; R3 ≈ 0.14064.
• Today’s price action decisively exceeded R3 early and continued to 0.1549, indicating a trend day. On trend days, pullbacks to shallow Fib levels (23.6–38.2%) often hold before a retest of highs.

12. Market structure, Wyckoff, and liquidity

• Wyckoff lens: Potential Phase D of accumulation on the intraday microstructure: a spring (flush to 0.1317), sign of strength (SOS) up to 0.1549, and a backing up to the edge of the creek around 0.149–0.151. If the backup holds, the next move is a markup toward 0.160.
• Liquidity: Obvious liquidity pools sit just above 0.155 (today’s high stops) and around 0.160 (round number stops). On the downside, liquid pockets at 0.149–0.150 and deeper at 0.146. Expect wicks into these zones.

13. Risk, ATR, and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) (inferred): Elevated following October’s crash and November’s volatility; approximate near 0.011–0.014. A 24h realized range of ~0.010–0.014 suggests a plausible path from ~0.150 to ~0.160–0.164 without extreme conditions.
• Base case 24h range: 0.146–0.160 with upside tails to 0.162; downside tails to 0.143 on adverse moves.

14. Confluence summary

• Bullish factors: Intraday trend and momentum up; volume expansion on breakout with lighter-volume pullback; price above VWAP; shallow 23.6% retracement holding; Ichimoku constructive; Elliott Wave suggests another impulse leg; pivot behavior of a trend day.
• Bearish factors: Higher timeframe (daily) still in a broader downtrend with strong supply above 0.160–0.165; upper-band tags often lead to consolidation; risk of double-top rejection at 0.1549 on the first attempt.
• Net: For a 24h tactical trade, buy-the-dip bias with defined risk offers a favorable R:R into 0.159–0.162.

15. Scenario probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish continuation: 55–60% – Hold 0.149–0.150, retest 0.154–0.155, extension to 0.159–0.161.
• Range/consolidation: 25–30% – Chop between 0.147–0.155, delayed breakout.
• Bearish fade: 15–20% – Lose 0.149, test 0.146–0.143; momentum degrades; continuation postponed.

16. Trade plan (24h)

• Strategy: Buy the dip into 0.149–0.150 (23.6% retracement zone) for a move toward 0.159–0.160. Place protective risk (not part of the asked fields) just below 0.146 (38.2%/Kijun/volume node) if executing.
• Rationale: Confluence of intraday momentum, shallow retracement, and volume pattern favors a continuation attempt. The 0.159–0.160 area is the first realistic extension/round-number magnet likely to attract liquidity.

17. What invalidates the setup?

• An impulsive breakdown and hourly close below ~0.146 would imply the pullback is evolving into a deeper corrective leg (toward 0.143/0.141), reducing 24h continuation odds and deferring the long entry until lower supports.

Price prediction (next 24h)

• Expected path: Stabilize 0.149–0.151, attempt a push through 0.154–0.155; on success, extend into 0.159–0.161. Failure at 0.155 likely reverts to 0.149–0.150 support; a deeper dip could probe 0.146 before any renewed attempt.

Decision

• Bias: Buy (Long) on a controlled pullback.
• Optimal open: 0.1495 (limit) at/near 23.6% Fib and local support.
• Target: 0.1598 (just below 1.272 extension/round number 0.160 to improve fill odds).