Hedera Price Analysis Powered by AI

HBAR Coils at the 20D Line: Eyeing a 0.114 Break to 0.116–0.118 in the Next 24 Hours

HBAR next-24h game plan — step-by-step technical deep dive

Market context and structure

Primary trend (daily): Clear multi-month downtrend since early October’s 0.23 area. A volatility shock on 2025-10-10 (capitulation-style selloff) set the tone, followed by a lower-high/lower-low sequence into late December. Recent price action carved a short-term base between 0.106–0.115.
Current price vs range: Last price 0.11257 sits just beneath a well-defined 0.1137–0.1153 resistance shelf (local swing reaction zone), and above a 0.106–0.108 demand shelf (multi-touch support).
Regime: Short-term consolidation within a broader downtrend; signs of early mean-reversion and momentum repair emerging in the last sessions.

Key levels (derived from the daily and intraday tape)

Immediate support: 0.1110–0.1118 (today’s pullback shelf), then 0.1090–0.1100 (intraday pivot), and 0.1060–0.1065 (major base; 12/31 and mid-Dec proximity), with the capitulation low zone 0.1042–0.1057 below.
Immediate resistance: 0.1137 (exact intraday stall today ≈ 61.8% retrace of 12/29–12/31 swing), 0.1152–0.1153 (12/27–28 closes/highs), 0.1165–0.1168 (upper target band), 0.1186 (12/29 swing high), then heavier supply 0.121–0.122 and 0.130–0.134.

Moving averages (trend filters and dynamic S/R)

20D SMA ≈ 0.1131 (estimated from last 20 daily closes). Price is hovering slightly below/around it; slope flattening after persistent decline — a sign of potential base-building.
50D SMA ≈ 0.140–0.145 (approx., given the Nov–Dec profile); slope decisively down. Price far below — confirms the larger bearish regime.
200D SMA likely >0.17; firmly above price — macro downtrend intact. Interpretation: Short-term repair around the 20D SMA with price attempting to recapture it. A clean hold/reclaim of the 20D often precedes a 1–3 day pop within downtrends, even if the 50D/200D still cap the upside later.

Momentum gauges (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

RSI(14) Daily (approx.): ~55–58 after today’s advance (was near neutral ~52 before the late-session push). This leaves oversold territory behind and indicates mild bullish momentum without being overbought.
MACD (12,26,9) Daily: MACD line remains below zero but has curled up; histogram likely near flat/slightly positive — signaling a nascent momentum turn, typical in early-stage bounces from a base.
Stochastic (fast) Daily: Given the quick lift from 0.106 to 0.113+, likely mid-to-high range. This can support another push if price quickly clears resistance; however, if it lingers, it risks rolling over. Timing favors a near-term attempt higher. Interpretation: Momentum has turned from negative to neutral-positive, consistent with a developing 1–2 day continuation higher — contingent on a clean breakout through 0.1137–0.1153.

Volatility and bands (Bollinger, ATR, Keltner)

Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: 20D mid ~0.1131; estimated band width narrow with lower band ~0.107 and upper band ~0.119. Price moved from lower band vicinity to the middle and kissed the upper half intraday — classic mean-reversion in progress with room up to ~0.118–0.119 if momentum persists.
ATR(14) Daily: ~0.0055–0.0060 (recent daily ranges). This supports a plausible +/–0.006 day move; i.e., 0.1126 ± 0.006 ⇒ 0.1066–0.1186 envelope for the next session.
Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± 1.5×ATR): Center ~0.113; upper ~0.121–0.122; lower ~0.104–0.105. Price is in the lower half of the channel, with headroom toward the mid/upper Keltner. Interpretation: Volatility compression + mid-band reclaim sets up an upside test toward 0.116–0.118, aligning with ATR-based expectations.

Volume/flow analytics

Volume profile: December’s slide occurred on decelerating volume compared to the October shock and late-October spikes — bearish pressure lost some punch. Last few sessions show moderate volume on up days (12/26–12/28), then pullback on lighter volume into 12/31’s dip, and another moderate pickup on 1/1 intraday lifts. This is consistent with early accumulation/short covering rather than aggressive distribution.
OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): Stabilizing to slightly up since mid-late December, not a strong surge — enough to fuel a tactical bounce but not indicative of trend reversal yet. Interpretation: Flow supports a tactical bullish bias into resistance, provided price confirms above 0.1137–0.1140.

Ichimoku (daily lens)

Tenkan-sen ≈ (9H+9L)/2 ≈ (0.11865 + 0.10621)/2 ≈ 0.11243. Price has just reclaimed/hovered above Tenkan — short-term bullish.
Kijun-sen (26-period mid) ≈ around 0.15 — far above. Chikou below price/cloud; Cloud overhead. Interpretation: Classic “bearish cloud, bullish Tenkan cross” setup. In downtrends, Tenkan recapture often leads to a brief extension higher toward prior resistance before meeting the heavier Kijun/cloud supply. Near-term positive, structurally still bearish.

Fibonacci and market geometry

Swing reference: 12/29 H 0.11865 to 12/31 L 0.10571.
- 38.2% = 0.11066 (already reclaimed)
- 50% = 0.11218 (now above)
- 61.8% = 0.11371 (today’s intraday stall nearly exact)
Above 61.8%, magnets: 0.1153 (local supply) then 0.1165–0.1168 (measured move/upper-band alignment), then 0.1186 (full retrace). Interpretation: Respect for Fib symmetry is high (precise pause at 61.8%). A clean break and hold over 0.1137 opens 0.1153 then 0.1165–0.1168 with decent probability.

Patterns and channels

Descending channel: Broader context still a channel down. Recent action fits a rectangle base 0.106–0.115 over ~2 weeks. Range compression near the top of the box often precedes an upside probe through the range high — especially after a fresh test of the range low (12/31) and swift reclaim.
Micro-structure: Potential ABC up from 12/31 low; C leg paused at 61.8% — either a shallow pullback then continuation, or direct break on a volume burst.

Intraday (hourly) confirmation

1/1 hourly path: Series of higher lows and higher highs from 0.1062 → 0.1096 → 0.1113 → 0.1133/0.1136, then a controlled consolidation around 0.1126 into the close — a textbook bull flag. Interpretation: Hourly trend supports an immediate attempt to re-take 0.1137–0.1140 early in the next session. Follow-through odds are better than average while that hourly structure remains intact.

Scenario mapping (24h)

Bullish continuation (≈58%): Break/hold above 0.1137–0.1140 triggers a push to 0.1153 and 0.1165–0.1168, with stretch to 0.1186 if momentum and volume expand.
Neutral chop (≈22%): Rejected at 0.1137; oscillation between 0.111–0.1137 while the market digests; a later-day breakout remains possible.
Bearish fade (≈20%): Early failure; a slip below 0.110–0.111 invalidates the intraday uptrend and reopens a test of 0.108 then 0.106–0.1065.

Risk management and invalidation

Long setup is contingent on breakout confirmation above 0.1137–0.1140. A sustained drop back below 0.1122 after breakout would warn of a bull trap; below 0.1110 the hourly uptrend likely breaks; below 0.1090 momentum crumbles and 0.106–0.108 retest likely.
Given ATR ~0.0058, a tactical stop for breakout longs typically sits ~0.0015–0.0020 below the breakout trigger. A first target near 0.1165–0.1168 offers a 1.6–2.0× reward/risk from that construct; a second target 0.1184–0.1186 improves R:R to ~2.5–3× if follow-through materializes.

Synthesis and conclusion

Confluence for upside attempt: RSI recovery to mid-50s, price reclaiming/hovering around the 20D SMA, intraday higher-lows, precise pause at the 61.8% retrace with a bull-flag intraday close, and room to the upper Bollinger/Keltner boundaries.
Counterpoint: The higher-timeframe downtrend remains dominant (50D/200D well above), and volume is constructive but not explosive — risks of a fade at resistance remain if 0.1137–0.1153 rejects.
Net stance (24h): Slightly bullish tactical edge. Prefer confirmation entry above 0.1138 with a target into 0.1165–0.1168; reassess at 0.1153 (first supply) for reaction. Failure to hold 0.1122 post-breakout is a red flag; sub-0.111 negates the idea.

Actionable plan

Bias: Buy on strength (breakout confirmation) rather than chase into resistance blindly.
Entry (buy-stop): 0.11380 to ensure clearance of the 61.8% barrier and micro-swing highs.
Primary target (TP): 0.11680 (confluence: upper band zone / measured move / prior supply). Stretch target: 0.11860 if momentum accelerates.
Risk (not requested but prudent): Protective stop ~0.11220 (below breakout structure) for a tactical play, yielding R:R ≈ 1.6 to TP1 and >2.5 if reaching 0.1186.
If no breakout: Consider passive patience; alternatively, a mean-reversion short near 0.1153 with a very tight stop 0.1166 can be attractive, but that is counter to the intraday momentum and not the preferred plan for the next 24 hours.

Bottom line

Expectation: A breakout attempt above 0.1137–0.1140 in the next session; subsequent follow-through toward 0.1165–0.1168 is favored. Only a drop back below 0.111–0.112 invalidates the short-term bullish setup and reopens 0.106–0.108.