HBAR breaks neckline: Buy the retest for a push into the 0.126–0.130 supply zone

Step-by-step multi-technique technical analysis for HBAR/USD (as of 2026-01-02 22:00 UTC)

1. Market regime and context

• The daily chart shows a pronounced multi-month downtrend from early October highs (~0.23) to a mid-December low (~0.1049), followed by basing in late December and a fresh early-January uptick. This positions HBAR in a potential early-stage mean reversion/recovery within a still-bearish higher timeframe regime.
• Current price 0.1213 has reclaimed late-December resistance layers (notably 0.1187–0.1190), suggesting short-term momentum has turned positive while the larger trend remains below major moving averages.

2. Multi-timeframe trend diagnosis

• Daily trend: Lower highs/lows from October through mid-December. Since 12/18, structure improved: double-bottom behavior (12/18 ~0.1050, 12/31 ~0.1062) and a higher high today vs 12/29 swing highs (~0.1187). That marks a micro trend change up within a broader downtrend.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear series of higher highs and higher lows from ~0.114 on 01/01 through 0.1213 today. Pullbacks are shallow, indicating steady dip-buying.

3. Support and resistance mapping (from recent swings and cluster zones)

• Immediate supports: 0.1205–0.1200 (intraday), 0.1193–0.1187 (breakout/neckline retest zone), 0.1173–0.1160 (hourly pullback shelf), deeper 0.1143/0.1138, 0.1119–0.1110, and the pivotal 0.1062 (12/31 low).
• Overhead resistances: 0.1230–0.1244 (Dec 12–14 cluster), 0.1263 (12/13 high), 0.1283–0.1310 (12/07 cluster), 0.1332–0.1346, 0.1390–0.1410.
• Read: Price broke above 0.1187–0.1190 and is probing 0.121+. Next meaningful supply sits 0.123–0.1244, then 0.126–0.131.

4. Chart patterns

• Inverse Head & Shoulders (micro on the daily/4h blend):
  • Left shoulder ~0.114–0.115 (12/14–12/16), head ~0.105 (12/18–12/19), right shoulder ~0.109–0.112 (12/24–12/26), neckline ~0.1186–0.1190 (12/29 swing highs).
  • Breakout has occurred (today’s move >0.119). Measured move: neckline (0.1187) minus head (0.1050) ≈ 0.0137 added to neckline → 0.1324 target. Near-term resistive cluster 0.128–0.131 fits as an initial objective.
• Double bottom: 12/18 ~0.105 and 12/31 ~0.1062 with bullish divergence (see RSI), confirming a base.
• Intraday rising channel: Price stair-steps higher; breakouts are followed by tight consolidations.

5. Moving averages (daily approximations)

• SMA20 ≈ 0.113–0.115 and turning up; price now above it, signaling short-term trend improvement.
• SMA50 ≈ 0.145 (still falling); price remains well below, reflecting a bearish intermediate backdrop.
• SMA200 ≈ 0.18–0.19 (falling); price far below, defining a bearish long-term regime.
• Read: Short-term momentum shift positive (price > SMA20), but bigger trend headwinds remain (price < SMA50/200). That favors tactical longs on pullbacks, not aggressive trend chasing.

6. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: likely ~48–55. This has moved up from deeply oversold readings mid-December, confirming a bullish momentum inflection without yet being overbought. Room to extend.
• RSI(14) hourly: likely 60–65 after an all-day grind higher. Mildly overbought intraday; suggests buy-the-dip tactics near supports rather than market buys at local highs.
• Stochastic (daily): rising from oversold; momentum tailwind. Stochastic (hourly): near upper band, favoring a small pullback/retest before the next leg.

7. MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero but histogram contracting toward the signal line (bullish momentum improvement). A zero-line cross is not yet present, consistent with early-stage reversal.
• Hourly MACD: Above zero and above signal for most of today; momentum positive intraday.

8. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily Bollinger Bands: Post-December contraction; price is riding toward/along the upper band (~0.121–0.123). This often invites shallow pullbacks that reset intraday oscillators before continuation. Band expansion is beginning, supporting upside follow-through toward 0.123–0.127 and possibly 0.129.
• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~0.006–0.009 (5–8% of price). Implies a 24h expected range around 0.115–0.130 from 0.121 if momentum persists.

9. Fibonacci frameworks

• Major swing (10/06 ~0.233 to 12/18 ~0.1043): Retracements at 38.2% ≈ 0.1536, 50% ≈ 0.1687, 61.8% ≈ 0.1839. Current price (0.1213) is still in the lower retracement zone. Longer-term recovery targets would need sustained basing.
• Intermediate swing (Nov peak ~0.201–0.198 to Dec low ~0.1049): 38.2% ≈ 0.141, 50% ≈ 0.153, 61.8% ≈ 0.164. Current price below 0.141, indicating the new rally has room before testing larger swing retracements.
• Short swing (12/31 low 0.1062 to today high 0.1213): Retracements at 38.2% ≈ 0.1156, 50% ≈ 0.1138, 61.8% ≈ 0.1120. An optimal dip-buy zone aligns with 0.1187–0.1190 (neckline) and 0.1156 (38.2% pullback) as secondary support.

10. Volume/flow analysis

• October–November selloffs saw heavy distribution. December basing came with lower, then stabilizing, volumes. Late-December to early-January uptick shows modest volume expansion on up days (today’s print ~212M, above some late-December sessions), consistent with early accumulation.
• OBV (conceptual): Bottomed mid-December and has started curling up, showing improving demand. No blow-off signs.
• CMF (conceptual): Likely near neutral to slightly positive as closes drift to the upper halves of recent ranges.

11. Ichimoku (directional read)

• Daily: Price likely below the Kumo; Tenkan turning up and either crossing or nearing Kijun around ~0.114–0.115. A bullish TK cross below the cloud is an early signal; cloud resistance still looms above, consistent with “bottoming but not fully reversed.”
• Hourly: Price above cloud; cloud rising with bullish alignment (Tenkan > Kijun, price > cloud). Pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun/upper-cloud supports often attract buyers.

12. ADX/trend strength

• Daily ADX likely subdued (~15–20) after the protracted downtrend and recent base. Early uptick could be forming; a rising ADX from low levels alongside positive DI would support continuation.
• Hourly ADX moderately positive (~20–25), consistent with today’s steady grind higher.

13. Candlestick reads

• Daily: Two strong up closes (01/01, 01/02) from the base zone. Today is a breakout candle above 0.119, with little upper wick so far—bullish.
• Intraday: Series of small-bodied green candles with minor wicks—grind up, low-stress trend day.

14. Wyckoff lens

• Late December appears as an accumulation range: selling climax (SC) around 12/18, potential spring/retest near 12/31, followed by an automatic rally to test the range top (0.118–0.119) and now a sign of strength pushing through. Next is a backup (retest of breakout) before markup toward 0.126–0.131.

15. 24-hour path projection

• Base case (60%): Mild dip to retest 0.119 (±0.0005), holds, then push to 0.123–0.124. If momentum persists and bands expand, extension to 0.126–0.129. A wick toward 0.130 is plausible if buy pressure accelerates.
• Pullback case (25%): Deeper mean reversion to 0.117–0.116 (hourly supports/38.2% short swing), then rebound. This keeps the emerging uptrend intact while frustrating late chasers.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 0.115–0.114 area (below Kijun/50% short swing), momentum stalls; price drifts back into the base toward 0.111–0.109. That would negate the near-term breakout posture.

16. Trade plan logic (tactical long)

• Rationale: Breakout above a multi-week neckline (0.1187–0.1190), improving daily momentum (RSI/MACD), price above SMA20 and hourly cloud, and constructive volume. Favor buying a retest rather than chasing at 0.1213 to exploit likely intraday mean reversion.
• Optimal entry zone: 0.1189 (limit), aligning with neckline retest and micro supports; acceptable scale zone 0.1187–0.1193. Secondary add if a flush tags 0.1173–0.1160 with reversal signal.
• Profit target (24h): 0.1295–0.1300 (ahead of 0.128–0.131 resistance cluster and within ATR-projected envelope). This aligns with early IHS measured move progression without requiring full target completion (0.1324) within 24h.
• Risk invalidation (not part of order fields but critical): A daily/hourly close back below 0.1180 weakens breakout; a break below 0.1156 (38.2% short swing) and especially 0.1138 (50% short swing) would materially degrade the setup. A tactical stop can sit ~0.1136–0.1140, depending on risk tolerance and sizing.

17. Synthesis and decision

• The confluence of: (a) base/neckline breakout, (b) improving momentum, (c) supportive intraday trend structure, and (d) room to nearest resistances, favors a tactical long with a buy-the-dip approach. Near-term pullbacks are likely shallow; upside toward 0.126–0.130 is achievable in the next 24 hours if the retest holds.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy on pullback.
• 24h expectation: Retest ~0.119 followed by a push to 0.123–0.126 and potentially 0.128–0.130. Manage risk below 0.1156/0.114 on a closing basis.