AI-Powered Predictions for Crypto and Stocks

HBAR icon
HBAR
▼
Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$0.1148
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T52k
Date
2026-01-10
22:00
Analyzed

Hedera Price Analysis Powered by AI

HBAR on Thin Ice: Support at $0.118 Is Fading—Positioning for a Breakdown to $0.115

Market context (Daily structure)

Current price: $0.11816 (2026-01-10 21:57Z)

1) Trend & structure (price action / Dow theory)

  • Major trend (Oct → Jan): Downtrend. HBAR peaked around $0.20–$0.22 in late Oct and has been making lower highs and lower lows into December.
  • Intermediate trend (mid-Dec → early Jan): Counter-trend bounce then fade. After a capitulation-like low near $0.105 (Dec 31), price rebounded to $0.132 (Jan 5) but then rolled over.
  • Immediate trend (last ~4–6 days): Weak / bearish drift. Daily closes:
    • Jan 06: 0.12885
    • Jan 07: 0.12343
    • Jan 08: 0.12051
    • Jan 09: 0.12010
    • Jan 10: 0.11816 This is a stair-step decline with sellers pressing price back toward the mid-Dec support band.

Conclusion from structure: The market is in a primary downtrend, and the early-January bounce looks like a bear-market rally that is now unwinding.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal levels + pivots)

Key levels derived from repeated daily interactions:

  • Resistance zone R1: $0.1208–$0.1235 (recent breakdown area; prior closes and intraday pivots)
  • Resistance zone R2: $0.1288–$0.1322 (Jan 6 close / Jan 5 high zone)
  • Support zone S1: $0.1176–$0.1182 (Dec 14 close ~0.11826; today’s low ~0.11806)
  • Support zone S2: $0.1140–$0.1150 (Dec 20–23 region; also frequent pivot)
  • Support zone S3: $0.1095–$0.1110 (Dec 17–22 congestion)
  • Major swing support S4: $0.104–$0.106 (Dec 18/31 lows)

Where we are now: price is sitting right on S1, meaning risk of a support break is elevated if sellers follow-through.

3) Moving averages / dynamic trend (inference from closes)

While exact MA values aren’t explicitly computed here, the sequence of closes strongly implies:

  • Short-term averages (5–10D) are rolling over after the Jan 5 peak.
  • Medium-term averages (20D+) remain downward sloping given the long decline from ~0.17–0.20 to ~0.11–0.12.

Interpretation: Price is likely below or struggling at key moving averages, which typically turns prior support into resistance (notably 0.1208–0.1235).

4) Momentum (rate-of-change / RSI-style read)

  • The move from 0.1322 → 0.1182 in ~5 days is a meaningful negative impulse.
  • However, the decline is orderly, not a one-day crash—this often reflects persistent distribution rather than capitulation.
  • Hourly candles show repeated failures to sustain pushes above ~0.1198–0.1205, indicating weak bullish momentum.

Momentum conclusion: Momentum favors continuation down unless price reclaims and holds > 0.1205–0.1210.

5) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style intuition)

  • Recent daily ranges are moderate (roughly a few mills, ~2–6%).
  • Today’s daily bar: O 0.12013 / H 0.12074 / L 0.11806 / C 0.11816 → a bearish close near the low, suggesting downside control into the close.

Volatility takeaway: With price sitting on support, a typical next step is either:

  1. Break-and-extend to the next demand area (0.114–0.115), or
  2. Dead-cat bounce back toward 0.1208–0.1235 (retest resistance).

Given the close location (near lows), scenario (1) has higher probability.

6) Volume / participation (daily volume read)

  • The early January rally (Jan 2–6) occurred on elevated volume (notably Jan 2, Jan 5, Jan 6). That often marks short-covering / strong participation.
  • The subsequent decline (Jan 7–10) still shows substantial volume, suggesting real selling pressure, not just lack of buyers.

Volume conclusion: The bounce likely attracted liquidity and is now being sold into.

7) Candle/Pattern signals

  • Jan 10 candle: bearish body and close near low after failing above 0.1207 → classic rejection at local resistance.
  • Micro-pattern (hourly): lower highs through the day and inability to reclaim 0.120+.
  • Broader: resembles a bear flag / descending consolidation after the Jan 5 peak.

Pattern conclusion: Bias to break lower rather than reverse.

24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): Continuation lower

  • Expect a support test and likely break of $0.1180.
  • Next magnet: $0.1150–$0.1140 (S2).
  • If risk-off accelerates, an extended flush could probe $0.1110–$0.1095.

Alternate case (lower probability): Relief bounce

  • If S1 holds firmly and buyers defend, price may mean-revert to $0.1208–$0.1235.
  • But unless it reclaims 0.1235 and holds, that bounce is likely a sell-the-rip.

Directional call for next 24h: Bearish to mildly bearish (downward drift with a chance of small bounce).

Trade plan logic (why short here)

  • You’re currently at support, which is not the best “market sell” location; however, the close near low + repeated intraday failure suggests support is weakening.
  • Optimal short entry is typically either:
    1. Breakdown entry (sell when support breaks and confirms), or
    2. Retest entry (sell a bounce back into resistance).

Given the data, the cleaner approach is a retest short into the broken pivot region.

Recommended decision

Sell (Short Position) with an entry staged on a bounce into resistance.