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HBAR icon
HBAR
▼
Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$0.0724
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T52k
Date
2026-02-05
22:00
Analyzed

Hedera Price Analysis Powered by AI

HBAR Breakdown Event: High-Volume Selloff Signals More Downside—Sell the Bounce

Market Snapshot (HBAR)

  • Current price: $0.076925
  • Context: Large, sudden intraday breakdown from the ~$0.089–0.090 area to $0.076 (day low $0.07621) on very high daily volume (300M) → classic “distribution / liquidation candle”.
  • Timeframe inputs: Daily candles (Nov → Feb) + last ~24h hourly candles.

1) Trend & Structure (Dow Theory / Market Structure)

Daily structure

  • Since early Nov, price has been in a persistent downtrend:
    • Nov peak area near $0.19–0.20
    • Lower highs through Dec/Jan
    • Sharp acceleration lower late Jan → early Feb.
  • Key observation: Jan 29–Feb 1: breakdown from ~$0.10 to ~$0.092 then ~$0.089.
  • Feb 5: decisive breakdown below the recent ~$0.086–0.089 base, creating a new lower low at ~$0.076.

Implication: Primary trend is bearish; today’s drop confirms trend continuation rather than reversal.

Hourly structure (last 24h)

  • Gradual weakening from ~0.0895 → 0.0842, then a sharp impulse selloff around 15:00–20:00 (hourly) with heavy volume.
  • Post-drop: price is hugging lows and failing to reclaim broken support.

Implication: Bears control intraday structure; bounces are likely to be sold.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action)

Near-term resistance (overhead supply)

  • $0.0792–0.0809: minor rebound zone (seen during the selloff sequence).
  • $0.0823–0.0830: breakdown area after the first leg down.
  • $0.0842–0.0856: pre-break consolidation; likely heavy supply.
  • $0.0888–0.0900: major resistance (prior day range + breakdown origin).

Near-term support

  • $0.0762: day low / breakdown extreme.
  • Psychological / round support: $0.0750.
  • If $0.076 fails cleanly, next likely “air pocket” zone becomes $0.072–0.070 (not directly visible in provided window, but typical next magnet after a range break of this magnitude).

3) Momentum & Rate-of-Change (qualitative RSI/MACD read)

While exact indicator values aren’t computed here, the shape of the move is decisive:

  • Multiple consecutive hourly red candles + one large range expansion candle → momentum breakdown.
  • The final hours show no meaningful bullish reversal pattern (no strong V-reclaim, no sustained higher highs/higher lows).

Interpretation:

  • RSI is likely oversold short-term, which can cause sharp dead-cat bounces.
  • However, in strong downtrends, “oversold” often persists and bounces tend to be corrective.

4) Volatility & Range Expansion (ATR / Bollinger concept)

  • Feb 5 daily candle range: approx $0.08985 high → $0.07621 low (~18%+ swing).
  • This is a volatility expansion event, often followed by:
    1. brief consolidation near lows, then
    2. either a retest of breakdown zone (pullback) or continuation lower.

Given the close is near lows ($0.0769), this resembles a trend-day down close, statistically more consistent with continuation / weak bounce rather than immediate full mean reversion.

5) Volume / Effort vs Result

  • Daily volume 300M is significantly elevated vs many prior days.
  • High volume + large red candle closing near the low suggests capitulation-like selling, but importantly:
    • Capitulation can mark a bottom only if followed by strong reclaim and follow-through buying.
    • Current hourly sequence shows stabilization, not a reclaim.

Conclusion: Treat this as bearish dominance until price reclaims key levels (at minimum $0.082–0.085).

6) Pattern Recognition

  • Bear flag / breakdown: The market spent Feb 4–Feb 5 early hours compressing around ~0.088–0.085, then broke down sharply → consistent with a continuation pattern.
  • No clear bullish reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer with follow-through) is present on the provided last prints.

7) 24h Forecast (Next 24 hours)

Base case (highest probability):

  • A corrective bounce into resistance (likely $0.079–0.081), then sellers defend, leading to:
    • either a retest of $0.0762
    • and a meaningful probability of a flush to $0.074–0.072 if that low fails.

Alternative (lower probability):

  • If buyers regain control and reclaim $0.082–0.083, price may extend to $0.085–0.086 (still likely a sell zone unless it holds above).

Directional bias: bearish-to-neutral with selling rallies favored.

Trade Plan (24h tactical)

Given the trend, breakdown, and overhead supply, the higher-quality setup is to Sell (short) on a pullback rather than chase the low.

  • Rationale for entry location:

    • Current price ($0.0769) is very close to support; shorting here risks a sharp snapback.
    • A bounce into $0.079–$0.081 is a logical “mean reversion” zone and former micro-support turned resistance.

  • Take-profit logic:

    • First objective: retest of $0.0762.
    • Extension objective: $0.073–$0.072 on continuation.

I’ll set the take-profit at a realistic extension level while still achievable within 24h given current volatility.

Prediction summary: Expect a weak bounce attempt, then renewed downside pressure. Selling rallies is favored over buying dips until reclaim >$0.082–$0.085 with strength.