Tradzar
Hedera Price Analysis Powered by AI
HBAR Bull-Trap After the 0.096 Spike: High Odds of a 24H Fade Back to 0.089
Multi-timeframe technical read (HBAR)
Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-11 → 2026-02-08) + intraday hourly candles (2026-02-07 22:00 → 2026-02-08 21:57).
Current price: $0.09097
1) Market structure & trend
Daily structure (primary trend)
- From mid-November (~$0.19) through early February, price is in a clear downtrend (lower highs, lower lows). The large selloff into Feb-05 low ~$0.0762 confirms bearish control.
- Since Feb-05: a sharp mean-reversion bounce (Feb-06 close ~$0.09116) followed by stalling / consolidation (Feb-07 close ~$0.08999, Feb-08 close ~$0.09097). This is typical of a dead-cat bounce phase inside a broader downtrend unless price can reclaim key broken supports.
Hourly structure (tactical trend)
- Strong impulse up: 08:00–14:00 pushed from ~0.0895 to ~0.0959 (intraday high).
- Then a sharp rejection: 15:00 candle sold down to ~0.0927; later an additional dip to ~0.0908 (16:00).
- Subsequent hours formed lower highs (0.0929 → 0.0924 → 0.0916) and price ended near 0.0910, indicating post-spike distribution.
Conclusion (structure): Higher timeframe remains bearish; lower timeframe shows a failed breakout attempt and now a weak, descending consolidation—bias down to sideways for next 24h unless bulls reclaim 0.0935–0.0940.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)
Key supports
- $0.0900–0.0908: repeated intraday pivot (multiple hourly opens/closes around here; late-day support).
- $0.0887–0.0890: prior daily close area (Feb-01 close ~0.0887) and intraday base before the pump.
- $0.0868–0.0873: Feb-07 daily low ~0.08679 and Feb-01 low ~0.0873.
- $0.0762: capitulation low (Feb-05). Far but defines tail risk.
Key resistances
- $0.0924–0.0930: supply zone from late-session bounces (19:00 close ~0.0924; 18:00 high ~0.09295).
- $0.0935–0.0943: intraday mid/top range (12:00 close ~0.09353; 11:00 spike to ~0.09425).
- $0.0949–0.0960: rejection zone / day high region; strongest near-term resistance.
Implication: At $0.09097 price is sitting just above a well-traded support band, but overhead supply from 0.0924–0.0940 is close—reward for longs is capped unless that band breaks.
3) Momentum & oscillation (inference from candles)
(Exact RSI/MACD not computed numerically; assessed by swing behavior, impulse strength, and follow-through.)
Momentum read
- The move to ~0.0959 was impulsive, but the inability to hold above ~0.094–0.095 and the fast retrace to ~0.0908 indicates momentum exhaustion.
- After the retrace, rebounds were weaker (lower highs), suggesting bearish momentum divergence behavior on the hourly swing.
Mean reversion context
- Daily context shows price recently oversold (large drop into Feb-05), and the bounce is consistent with mean reversion. However, mean reversion rallies in downtrends often fade at the first major supply zone—which appears to have occurred near 0.095–0.096.
Implication: Short-term momentum has cooled and is vulnerable to another leg down toward 0.089–0.0887.
4) Volatility & range analysis
- Daily ranges expanded significantly Feb-05/06 (capitulation + rebound), indicating high realized volatility.
- Intraday: the session range roughly 0.0890 → 0.0958 (~7.6%). Such expansion days commonly lead to range contraction with a bias back toward the VWAP/value area.
- Value area today clustered around 0.091–0.093; price closed near the lower edge of that value.
Implication: Next 24h is likely a range day biased to test lower value/support (0.090 → 0.089) before any sustainable push higher.
5) Pattern / formation cues
Bull trap / failed breakout
- The sequence (base → sharp breakout to 0.0959 → immediate rejection and lower highs) resembles a bull trap above the 0.094–0.095 region.
Descending consolidation
- Post-rejection price action looks like a bear flag / descending channel on the hourly timeframe, often resolving downward toward the prior base.
Implication: Probabilistic edge favors a downside resolution, at least to retest 0.089–0.0887.
6) Scenario plan (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): mild bearish drift
- Expected path: 0.0910 → retest 0.0900 → possible wick to 0.0890–0.0887 → rebound attempts capped near 0.0924–0.0930.
- 24h expected range (most likely): $0.0886 to $0.0932.
Alternative bullish case (invalidates short bias)
- If price reclaims and holds above 0.0935–0.0940 (acceptance), then a retest of 0.0949–0.0960 becomes likely.
7) Trade decision (direction + optimal entry)
Given:
- Dominant daily downtrend
- Clear intraday rejection from 0.095–0.096
- Hourly lower-high sequence and proximity of overhead resistance
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Optimal open (entry) logic
- Shorting at market (~0.09097) is possible but not optimal because support is immediately below.
- Better: place a limit sell into resistance where failed bounces have occurred.
- The best tactical zone is 0.0924–0.0930 (first meaningful supply band). This improves R:R while keeping invalidation tight.
Profit-taking (close) logic
- First objective is the retest of the value/support shelf 0.0890–0.0887.
- Using a single take-profit as requested, choose the more conservative/high-probability pocket $0.08890.
Summary (one-line)
HBAR remains in a broader downtrend; today’s spike to ~0.096 looks rejected and distributional—favor a 24h fade back toward ~0.089.