HBAR Breakout Ignites: Post-Base Surge Signals a Retest-Then-Run Setup Over the Next 24 Hours

Market Snapshot (HBAR)

• Current price: $0.10559
• Time context: Daily data from late Nov 2025 → Feb 25, 2026 + intraday hourly for the last ~24h.
• Key observation: A sharp intraday breakout from the ~$0.095 range to ~$0.1056 (≈ +11% day move) with very strong volume on the daily candle (132.6M) and increasing hourly participation into the move.

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1) Multi-Timeframe Trend Structure

Daily trend (swing structure)

• From early Jan highs (~$0.132) the market sold off into early Feb lows (capitulation wick area around $0.073–$0.078 on Feb 5–6), then began a base.
• Recent daily closes before today were mostly range-bound / slightly bearish (roughly $0.094–$0.103 zone), indicating accumulation after the sell-off.
• Today’s daily candle (Feb 25) is a range expansion + breakout close near highs (close ~0.1056, high ~0.1059), which typically signals trend reversal attempt / continuation from base.

Intraday (hourly) trend

• Hourly shows a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows from ~0.0957 → 0.1059.
• Minimal pullbacks and repeated bid support (notably around 0.099–0.101 before the final push).
• This is characteristic of impulse leg behavior (trend day), often followed by either:
  1. continuation after a brief consolidation, or
  2. a mean-reversion pullback to retest breakout levels.

Trend conclusion: Short-term (next 24h) bias shifts bullish, but after an 11% impulse the probability of a pullback/retest increases.

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2) Support/Resistance (Price Action / Market Structure)

Immediate resistance

• $0.1059–$0.1063: current breakout peak / near-term supply.
• $0.1072: prior daily resistance region (Feb 14 high ~0.1072). A retest is very likely as the next upside objective.
• Above that (if momentum persists): $0.110–$0.112 (psych + prior congestion).

Key supports

• $0.1040–$0.1042: hourly base before the last push (seen at 20:00 candle open/low region). First logical pullback support.
• $0.1013–$0.1025: prior intraday breakout shelf (multiple hours consolidated here). A deeper retest could land here.
• $0.0994–$0.1003: earlier breakout zone (12:00–14:00), also a round-number magnet.
• $0.0950–$0.0960: origin of move (major intraday support), but a full retrace to here would imply the breakout failed.

S/R conclusion: Price is currently pressing resistance; best risk-adjusted long entries typically come from retests of 0.104 / 0.102 rather than buying the very top.

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3) Momentum & “Overextension” Checks

Candle/impulse quality

• Daily candle is effectively a bullish expansion (open ~0.0951, close ~0.1056) with close near the top—momentum-positive.
• Hourly candles show sustained buying with only brief pauses: indicates real demand, not just a single spike.

RSI-style inference (qualitative)

• With a one-day +11% move after a multi-week base, short-term RSI on hourly is likely overbought/near-overbought.
• Overbought in a breakout is not a sell signal by itself; it is a timing signal: avoid chasing, wait for pullback.

Mean reversion vs. continuation

• After a strong impulse, the most common next step is consolidation (flag/pennant) or a pullback to the breakout level.
• Given current location at the day’s highs, the next 24h most probable path is:
  • pull back toward 0.104–0.102,
  • then attempt 0.107–0.110.

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4) Volume & Participation

Daily volume

• 132.6M is elevated relative to many recent days in the range. This supports the interpretation of a real breakout.

Hourly volume pattern

• Activity increases into the later hours (notably 16:00–21:00 showing multi-million prints). That often indicates:
  • trend participation strengthening,
  • but also raises the chance of profit-taking at the next resistance band.

Volume conclusion: Supports bullish bias, but near-term “blow-off” risk increases when volume accelerates into resistance.

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5) Pattern Recognition

• Base → breakout: The market formed a multi-day base around ~0.094–0.103 then broke upward.
• Intraday shows something close to a bull flag: small pauses (0.099–0.101) followed by continuation.
• From a classical measured move perspective: the move from ~0.095 to ~0.1056 implies a +0.0106 leg; a continuation could project into ~0.109–0.110 if the breakout holds.

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6) Volatility / Risk Framing (ATR-style)

• Today’s daily range is large (≈0.09497 to 0.10588). Expect wider swings next session.
• For the next 24h, a typical pullback magnitude could be 30–60% retrace of the impulse leg:
  • Impulse ≈ 0.1056 - 0.0951 = 0.0105
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 0.0040 → 0.1016
  • 50% retrace ≈ 0.0053 → 0.1003
  • 61.8% retrace ≈ 0.0065 → 0.0991

This aligns cleanly with the observed breakout shelves.

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7) 24H Price Movement Forecast (Scenario-Based)

Base case (highest probability)

• Pullback/retest toward $0.104 → $0.102 (profit-taking + mean reversion)
• Then continuation attempt toward $0.1072, with extension potential to $0.109–$0.110 if risk-on persists.

Bull case

• Minimal pullback; holds above $0.1045 and breaks $0.1063, then runs toward $0.109–$0.112.

Bear case

• Breakout fails; loses $0.101 and drifts back toward $0.099–$0.096.

Given the strength of the close and volume confirmation, I weight outcomes as:

• Bullish continuation / hold breakout: more likely than full failure.
• But immediate upside from $0.1056 is less attractive than buying a retest.

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Trade Plan (Decision + Optimal Entry)

Decision: Buy (Long)

Rationale: Daily breakout from a base with strong volume + intraday impulsive structure suggests higher probability of upside continuation over the next 24h.

Optimal open price (entry)

• Buy limit: $0.1039
  • This targets the first meaningful retest support near ~0.1040 (prior hourly breakout shelf).
  • It avoids chasing the top at 0.1056 while still engaging the bullish structure.

Take-profit / close price

• Close (TP): $0.1098
  • Just under the psychological $0.110 and consistent with a measured-move extension and prior congestion.

(If price never pulls back to 0.1039 and instead breaks 0.1063 cleanly, the market is in a stronger bull case; however, the “optimal” risk-adjusted entry from the provided data is the retest buy.)