HNT at the Brink: Short the Pop as Bears Aim to Retest 2.00

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for HNT (Helium) with a 24-hour trading plan

Overview

• Current price: 2.0785
• Structure: Persistent downtrend since late September, acceleration lower on 10 Oct, weak bounces sold. Price sits below short- and medium-term moving averages, hugging lower volatility bands. Momentum remains negative with mild intraday oversold conditions that can fuel a sell-the-rip setup.

Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows from the 2.69 region (Oct 2) to the 2.02 low (Oct 10). Attempts to recover toward 2.26–2.26 failed and rolled back down.
• Intraday (hourly) 15–16 Oct: Pop to 2.188 on 16 Oct around 13:00 UTC was sold aggressively; successive lower highs followed by fresh session lows near 2.067 confirm intraday bearish control.
• Key levels
  • Immediate resistance: 2.10–2.12 (intraday supply and a Fib cluster) and 2.18–2.19 (intra-day pivot high and rejection zone)
  • Immediate supports: 2.07 (today’s low zone), 2.02–2.03 (Oct 10 capitulation low), psychological 2.00
  • Higher resistance layers if a squeeze occurs: 2.22–2.26, 2.31–2.33, 2.43

Moving averages

• 5-day SMA ≈ 2.179; 10-day SMA ≈ 2.28; 20-day SMA ≈ 2.40 (estimates from provided closes)
• Price below 5, 10, and 20 SMAs indicates momentum and trend remain bearish. Slope of short MAs turned down again after the failed bounce, confirming renewed downside pressure.
• EMAs: 9-EMA likely ~2.16–2.18 and 21-EMA ~2.30–2.33; price below both, reinforcing the sell-the-rally bias.

Momentum indicators

• RSI 14 daily estimate ≈ 30–31 based on recent closes. This is near classical oversold but in downtrends RSI can stay near 30 for extended periods; oversold alone is not a buy signal.
• Hourly RSI dipped sub-30 into the new low at ~2.067 and modestly rebounded, implying a probable minor relief bounce that should encounter supply around 2.10–2.12.
• MACD daily: Negative and below signal with widening downside after the mid-October rejection. No confirmed bullish cross.
• Stochastics: Daily and hourly both near lower bands; hourly may cycle up briefly, favoring a better short entry on a pop.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands 20,2: Midline near ~2.40; lower band estimated near ~1.95–2.00 given recent dispersion. Price is tracking the lower band zone, consistent with a trend move, not a mean-reversion regime yet.
• ATR 14 daily rough estimate ~0.20. A 1x ATR swing from current puts 1.88–2.28 as a plausible 1-day envelope; the downside excursion to 2.00–2.02 is well within a typical day’s range, making a 2.01 target realistic within 24 hours.

Fibonacci analysis

• Short swing 10 Oct low 2.022 to 16 Oct intraday high 2.188: A deep retracement is underway
  • 38.2%: ~2.125
  • 50%: ~2.105
  • 61.8%: ~2.085
  • 78.6%: ~2.058 Price has already broken below the 61.8% level, often a tell that the rally is failing and a retest of the origin (2.02) is likely. The 50% and 38.2% levels around 2.105–2.125 align as sell zones on a bounce.
• Larger swing 2.69 to 2.02: The bounce to ~2.26 aligns roughly with a 35–40% retracement of the major leg down, which is shallow and bearish.

Ichimoku view (conceptual)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; the cloud is overhead and likely thick given the earlier volatility burst. The lagging span would be below price. Net signal is bearish with resistance projected ahead.

Volume and market participation

• 10 Oct showed a distribution day with very high volume into a large down candle. Subsequent bounces had lower and inconsistent participation and were sold. Today’s intraday rejection off 2.18 with follow-through selling points to persistent supply and weak dip demand.
• There is no evidence of a classic accumulation day at lows; instead, the path of least resistance remains down to test the prior washout zone.

VWAP and intraday context

• Today’s session VWAP likely sits above spot near ~2.13–2.15 given the earlier rally; price staying below VWAP indicates sellers control the tape. Expect reversion attempts toward VWAP to be offered into.

Market structure, pattern reads, and channels

• Descending channel from late September remains intact. Price is near the lower half of the channel; a small bounce to mid-channel often precedes the next leg down.
• Candlestick character: Upper wicks on intraday rallies and strong closes toward session lows are typical of bear control.
• Micro lower-high sequence intraday: 2.188 → 2.174 → 2.134 → 2.090. This stair-step down often continues until a significant demand pocket is hit; next clear pocket is 2.02–2.00.

Elliott-style framing (tactical)

• Post-crash A up into ~2.26, B chop, C down appears in progress. Typical C targets move toward the origin of A, implying a test of 2.02 region; a marginal undercut to sweep liquidity below 2.00 is possible before a more durable bounce.

Support and resistance map

• S1 2.07; S2 2.02–2.03; S3 2.00; S4 1.95–1.96 extension if momentum accelerates
• R1 2.10–2.12; R2 2.18–2.19; R3 2.22–2.26; R4 2.31–2.33

Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case 50%: Minor bounce to 2.10–2.12, then roll over to 2.02–2.04. Close near the lower third of the day’s range.
• Bear extension 30%: Weak or no bounce; swift flush through 2.02 stops into 1.98–2.00, then modest rebound. This is consistent with a liquidity sweep under the prior low.
• Bull surprise 20%: Stronger squeeze above 2.12 toward 2.18–2.19 on short covering; likely fades below 2.22 unless fresh catalysts emerge.

Risk management and trade construction

• Bias: Sell the pop tactic aligns with trend, moving averages, MACD, and Fib cluster confluence around 2.10–2.12.
• Entry: Prefer a limit sell near 2.105–2.115. Given current 2.0785, waiting for a bounce reduces slippage and improves reward relative to risk.
• Target: 2.01 base target aligns with retest of the 10 Oct low zone without requiring a breakdown through 2.00.
• Optional protective stop (not part of the required fields, but for planning): 2.19 above the intraday pivot fails and the rejection zone; this invalidates the immediate bearish setup. From a 2.105 entry, risk ~0.085, reward to 2.01 ~0.095; R:R ~1.1. If aiming 1.98, R:R ~1.5.

Confluence summary

• Trend: Down across timeframes
• Momentum: Negative, RSI near 30 but not reversing yet
• Volatility: Elevated but compressing intraday, suitable for a measured leg down
• Fib and structure: Deep retracement failure below 61.8% favors retest of lows
• Volume: Distribution characteristics on down moves, weak demand on bounces
• Intraday positioning: Price below VWAP with lower highs; short rallies preferred

24-hour prediction

• Expect a small relief bounce toward 2.10–2.12 to meet supply, followed by drift and acceleration lower toward 2.02–2.01. A brief stop-run into sub-2.00 is possible but not required for the base case.

Actionable plan

• Position: Short on a bounce
• Open: 2.105 (limit sell)
• Close: 2.010 (take profit) within 24 hours, reassessing if 2.02 holds strongly or if momentum spike suggests holding for 1.99–1.98.