Hyperliquid (HYPE32196) In-Depth Technical Analysis — Next 24 Hours Outlook

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

• Prevailing Trend: From mid-February through late March, HYPE experienced a substantial drawdown from $26.8 to below $11.75—over 55% loss, indicating a deep bear phase.
• Recent Trend: April initiated a strong bullish reversal, as the price climbed from ~$11.7 (Apr 2) to $26.2 (May 10). This suggests a V-shaped recovery, characterized by high momentum and renewed buying interest. Currently, the price has consolidated around $24.5 after reaching a local high of $26.4 (May 13).
• Higher Lows: March's higher swing lows (e.g., $12.0 on Mar 29 and $13.23 on Apr 2) point to decreasing selling pressure, a classic reversal signal confirmed by subsequent upside.
• Momentum Slowdown: The last two days (May 13-15) show lower highs and ranging candles ($25.8 → $24.5), implying momentum fading and short-term mean reversion.

2. Candlestick Pattern Analysis (Recent Days & Hourly Chart)

• Daily Candles: Large bullish bodies till May 10, then several long upper wicks (May 11-15), indicating supply above $25-26.
• Recent Hourly Candles (May 14-15): Sideways action $24.8–$25.2, declining volatility, and attempt to recover fails to break recent highs, coupled with lower closes. Last few hours show downside pin bars and closes at session lows.

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Surge During April Rally: April's strong recovery was supported by rising volume—healthy sign for bulls.
• Recent Volume: Peaked sharply on May 9 ($24.7) and May 10 ($26.2); since then, volumes have dropped, suggesting buyer exhaustion.
• Today's Sessions: Lower volume on small-bodied candles often precedes range expansion—likely for a breakout or swift move.

4. Volatility & Range Expansion

• ATR (implied): Volatility spiked on the way up and has compressed recently (last 48h). This squeeze is often a prelude to volatility expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (Qualitative): Price hugging upper band but failing to close above $25.5, with a band squeeze evident — potential for an imminent large move.

5. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance: $25.8–$26.5 (triple top from May 10-14, failed to break).
• Immediate Support: $24.0 (psychological and tested May 14, 15; prior base of hourly consolidation).
• Deeper Support: $23.2 (last breakout level and late April consolidation zone).
• Key Pivot Area: $24.5—current price is precisely at pivot, making this a make-or-break level for uptrend continuation.

6. EMA/SMA Analysis

• EMA(20/50) (Extrapolated): Short-term EMAs (on both daily/hourly) are beginning to flatten. The price dipped below hourly EMA20 for several recent sessions, failing to reclaim with strength, confirming loss of momentum.

7. RSI & Oscillator Analysis

• RSI (Qualitative): Bullish momentum in April/early May pushed RSI into overbought territory (>70). Recent sideways/down drift brought it back to neutral (likely 50–55 zone), but no evident bullish or bearish divergence.
• MACD (Qualitative): Bullish cross weeks ago, but histogram is now converging downward and lines flattening—a classic warning of pending correction.

8. Fibonacci Retracement (For Current Rally)

• Key Levels (Apr 2 Low / May 13 High):
  • 0.236 – $22.9
  • 0.382 – $20.7
  • 0.5 – $19.1
• Current Price at $24.5 is just above 0.236: If this breaks, expect sharp potential to $22.9–23.2.

9. Market Structure & Sentiment

• Structure: Strong impulse up, weak corrective drift at the highs — classic sign of distribution phase.
• Sentiment: Retail exuberance likely peaked last week; declining volume and failed rallies suggest some profit taking and sideline behavior.

10. Composite: COT (Commitment of Traders) & Big Player Behavior (Inference)

• The sharp rallies on high volume followed by a plateau and lower volume indicate possible distribution by larger traders, with late entries exposed to drawdown risk.

11. Elliott Wave Count (Broadly)

• Cycle Wave 1: April rally (Wave A)
• Flat/Corrective phase: May 10–present (potential Wave B, with C correction underway)
• If C is commencing, likely pullback to the 0.236 / 0.382 Fib zone (~$23.2–$22.9)

12. Risk/Reward, Trade Management, and Probabilities

• Bullish Case: Sustained move above $25.8 invalidates short thesis, re-exposes $26.4+ highs.
• Bearish Case: Confirmation below $24.5 (current price), with $23.2 and then $22.0 as next liquidity zones. The risk/reward strongly favors short targeting these support levels, especially given failed breakouts, waning volume, and overextension after a vertical rally.

13. Synthesis / Final Probability

• Bearish short-term: All signals (volume, price action, momentum, failed breakouts, oscillator flattening, and support cluster at $24.5) imply a short-term correction toward $23.2–$22.9 over the next 24 hours. Upside risk ($25.5–$26) is capped by strong resistance and exhaustion.

Conclusion

• Setup: SELL/Short at current price, targeting retest of lower support ($23.25), stop out if price closes above $25.7.
• Rationale: Multiple techniques—ranging from candlestick patterns, support/resistance, volume analysis, Fibonacci retracements, RSI/MACD momentum, and Elliott Wave—align for a short bias over next 24 hours. Mean reversion likelihood is high after a parabolic thrust and subsequent distribution phase.

Action Plan:

• Open short (Sell) around current price ($24.51–$24.55), take profit at $23.25–$22.95 zone.

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BEARISH MOMENTUM ALERT: Hyperliquid Looks Poised for a Correction — Here’s Why the Next 24 Hours Could Bring Lower Prices