HYPE: Buy the dip at 42.35 — aiming for a 44.60 breakout magnet within 24 hours

Snapshot and context

• Asset: Hyperliquid (HYPE)
• Current price (last tick): 42.7132
• Session profile (intraday 11-07): Low 38.1266, High 43.2298, Close 42.7132, momentum positive into the close after a strong trending advance from sub-39.
• Recent regime: High-volatility selloff in mid/late Oct, capitulation around Oct 17–18 (low ~33.53 intraday, daily closes mid-30s), then sharp rebound into late Oct highs (~48), followed by pullback to 39.11 (Nov 4) and today’s impulsive rebound. Volatility remains elevated; liquidity will thin over the weekend.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Clear down leg from Oct 29 (48.03) to Nov 4 (39.11), then a strong reaction low and today’s impulsive up-day. Price is now making a higher low vs Nov 4 and pressing into the first cluster of overhead supply (43.1–43.6).
• Intraday (hourly): Trend flipped to higher highs and higher lows from the 38.1–38.6 base, with a clean staircase: 39.5 breakout → 40.1–40.7 consolidation → 41.8–42.8 surge → mild pullback to 42.7.
• Pattern: Emerging double-bottom/“W” style base on very short-term frames with a neckline around 43.2 (today’s high). A decisive break and hold above 43.23 targets a measured move toward 47–48 (full target), though a nearer 24h target sits into 44.6–45.5.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (computed): Approx 41.48 based on last 20 closes. Current 42.71 is above the 20D SMA, a short-term bullish inflection after weeks of pressure.
• 50-day SMA (estimate): Mid- to high-40s (likely ~46) given September’s 50s and late-October 40s–50s; price remains below the 50D SMA, so medium-term trend is still down/sloping lower. Translation: short-term uptrend within a medium-term downtrend; rallies face supply into mid/high-40s.
• Slope check: 20D SMA likely flattening/turning up; 50D still downward. This supports a tactical long with tempered expectations into first resistance bands.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (estimate): Upper 40s after today’s surge (prior sequence of down closes had likely pulled RSI into high-30s/low-40s); today’s rally should lift it toward ~45–48. This is a neutral-to-bullish reset, not overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Entered overbought during the thrust to 43.23, cooled on the small pullback to ~42.7; constructive for a continuation attempt if it can reset around 50–60 and turn up.
• Stochastics (1H): Likely cycled down from >80 toward mid-zone with price holding elevated – a bullish “reset within an uptrend.”

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Likely curling higher after bottoming earlier this week; histogram contracting toward zero. A bullish cross is probable if price holds >42 for a few sessions.
• Hourly MACD: Bullish cross occurred during the 39.5–40 breakout, with positive histogram through the run to 43.2; modest cooldown into the close without a bearish cross. Momentum remains supportive intraday.

5. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR (visual estimate from recent ranges): ~3.0–4.0. A 24-hour directional move of 2–3 points is plausible, 4+ points possible in extension with weekend liquidity.
• Hourly ATR: ~0.5–0.7 today; range expansion on impulse bursts remains a feature.

6. Bollinger Bands (20D)

• Mid-band ~20D SMA at ~41.48. Current price above mid-band, indicating upside bias.
• Bandwidth is wide given recent volatility; upper band likely sits high 40s. There is room to probe the upper half of the envelope without immediate overextension.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: Oct 29 high 48.0266 → Nov 4 low 39.1139 (range 8.9127)
  • 38.2%: 42.519 (just reclaimed today)
  • 50%: 43.57 (key resistance aligning with 10/31 close 43.61)
  • 61.8%: 44.62 (next resistance and aligns with classic R1 today)
  • 78.6%: 46.11 (stretch target if momentum continues)
• Intraday swing (today): 38.13 → 43.23. A neckline break of 43.23 projects 1.0 extension near ~48.3, but more realistic in 24h is the 0.382–0.618 extension window into 44.3–45.6.

8. Classical levels: support and resistance

• Immediate supports: 42.20–42.40 (intraday shelf); 41.98–42.05 (hourly pivot prior to last leg); 41.35 (intraday pivot calc, see below); 40.65–40.80 (early session HVN); 39.8; 39.11 (Nov 4 swing low).
• Immediate resistances: 43.23 (today’s high/neckline); 43.57–43.61 (50% retrace + prior daily close); 44.59–44.62 (R1 + 61.8% retrace); 45.5 (late Oct pivot); 47.8–48.0 (late Oct supply cap).

9. Pivot points (intraday, using today’s H/L/C)

• PP = (H + L + C)/3 ≈ (43.2298 + 38.1266 + 42.7132)/3 ≈ 41.3565
• R1 = 2*PP − L ≈ 44.5864
• S1 = 2*PP − H ≈ 39.4832
• R2 = PP + (H − L) ≈ 46.4597
• S2 = PP − (H − L) ≈ 36.2533 Current 42.71 > PP and below R1: classic bullish intraday posture with upside magnetism toward 44.6 if momentum persists.

10. Volume, OBV, and accumulation cues

• Today’s hourly volume expanded markedly into the push above 42 with a notable surge at 20:00 UTC; pullback volumes tapered, suggesting healthy digestion rather than distribution.
• OBV (inferred) turning up intraday, supportive of accumulation off the 38–40 base.

11. VWAP and volume profile (qualitative)

• Session VWAP likely in the low 41s to high 41s given heavy volume during 40–42 zone and late-day ramp; price held above it into the close – a bullish tell. Volume nodes: Dense participation around 40–41 (value area); price acceptance developing in 42–43. Auction likely explores higher to locate new sellers, initially 43.2–43.6.

12. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• 1H: Price > Tenkan and > Kijun, with a bullish cross earlier in the session; price either entering or above the cloud depending on prior spans. Lagging span catching up; short-term bias positive while above Kijun (~41.8–42 zone).
• 4H/Daily: Price working back into/through the cloud after prior downtrend; initial resistance consistent with 43.5–45.5.

13. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX on intraday frames likely rising into high-teens/low-20s after today’s directional move – the trend is young and strengthening but not yet overextended.

14. DeMark and exhaustion

• A probable 9–13 exhaustion completed around early-week lows (~39), followed by today’s reaction; no fresh upside exhaustion yet on intraday, leaving room for continuation.

15. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave A down: 48 → 39; wave B up underway. Substructure: i) base at 38.1–38.6, ii) impulse to 43.2, iii) anticipated pullback to ~42.2–42.4, iv) continuation toward 44.6–45.5. Invalidates near a decisive break below ~41.0–41.3 (prior swing and pivot).

16. Statistical path over next 24 hours

• Baseline expectation: 60–65% odds of testing 43.2–43.6; 45–55% odds of tagging 44.6; 20–30% odds of a wick into 45.2–45.6. Pullback depth: 41.9–42.4 (buy-the-dip zone) favored; a deeper flush to 41.3–41.5 is lower probability but still constructive if reclaimed.
• Expected range: 41.6–45.2, with modal close 43.9–44.3 if neckline breaks. Failure case: Lose 41.8 and sustain below 41.3 – then reversion toward 40.6 and possibly 39.8.

17. Confluence summary

• Bullish:
  • Price reclaimed 20D SMA and BB mid; intraday higher highs/higher lows.
  • Strong intraday breadth and volume on advances; VWAP reclaimed.
  • Fib confluence: 43.57–44.62 is the next magnet zone once 43.23 breaks.
  • Pivot math aligns R1 ≈ 44.59 with Fib 61.8% ≈ 44.62.
• Caution:
  • 50D SMA overhead (~46) and late-Oct supply near 47–48 cap upside in the near term.
  • Weekend liquidity could accentuate whips; re-tests likely after the initial breakout.

18. Trade plan and execution

• Bias: Buy dips within the 42.2–42.4 demand pocket, looking for a push through 43.23 toward 44.6.
• Entry: Optimal limit ~42.35 (inside the pullback liquidity pocket above Kijun/VWAP bands and below the last micro swing at 42.7), improving risk/reward versus chasing.
• Profit-taking: Primary target 44.60 (R1 + 61.8% Fib). Secondary/runner target 45.50–46.10 if momentum expands.
• Risk control (not required but prudent): Protective stop ~41.25 (below PP+structure), yielding ≈2.0:1 RR for the primary target.

19. Decision logic

• With price above 20D SMA, intraday momentum positive, and a nearby bullish trigger (43.23 neckline), the path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is modestly higher. Overhead supply argues for taking profits into 44.6 rather than aiming immediately for upper-40s. Pullbacks that hold >41.8–42.0 are buyable; failure below 41.3 negates the setup.

24-hour price prediction

• Base case: Early dip to 42.2–42.4 → breakout attempt over 43.23 → advance toward 44.1–44.6 → consolidation around 43.8–44.2 by end of window.
• Upside extension: Brief overshoot to 45.2–45.6 if breakout impulse persists.
• Downside risk: Rejection at 43.2 and loss of 41.8 opens 40.6–39.8, but odds lower given current confluence.

Conclusion: Tactical long favored. Enter on dip, aim to monetize into the 44.6 confluence, with awareness of weekend-driven volatility.