HYPE poised for a neckline test: Buy the dip for a 24h push toward 44

Executive snapshot

• Instrument: Hyperliquid (HYPE)
• Now: 41.97 (+ intraday, choppy but constructive)
• Timeframe focus: next 24 hours, with alignment from daily trend and 1-hour structure
• Core view: Short-term upward bias within a broader corrective/downtrend. Expect a test of 42.2–42.7 first, then a possible drive toward 43.6–44.3 if momentum persists. Optimal plan: buy the dip into 41.3–41.7 and target the 44 area.

1. Price structure and trend

• Daily structure: From the September peak (~59.4) the market entered a sustained downtrend, punctuated by a large capitulation on Oct 10 (intraday low ~26.3, close ~38.1) and a local recovery to ~49.7 by Oct 29. Post that, price rolled over into early November with a higher reaction low vs the Oct 17 low (Nov 4 low 35.82 vs Oct 17 low 33.53), suggesting basing attempts above mid-30s.
• Recent swing map (daily closes): 39.11 (Nov 4) → 41.36 (Nov 5) → 38.59 (Nov 6) → 42.28 (Nov 7) → 40.12 (Nov 8) → 41.97 (today). This forms a series of higher swing lows: 35.82 → 37.75 → 39.74 → ~39.43 intraday today, indicating early-stage accumulation despite the broader downtrend.
• Hourly (Nov 9): Steady grind up from ~40.2 with spikes to 42.69, followed by consolidation holding above ~41.8–42.0 into the close snapshot. The micro-trend is up; pullbacks have been shallow and bought.

2. Support and resistance (composite)

• Immediate supports: 41.35–41.60 (hourly shelf); 40.98 (Classic Daily Pivot); 40.20 (observed Nov 3 close support zone); 39.70–39.75 (Fib 61.8% retrace cluster and repeated bounce zone); 38.60 (Nov 6 close).
• Immediate resistances: 42.23 (R1 from pivots, already tagged), 42.70 (today’s intraday high), 43.60–43.65 (Fib 38.2% of the 33.53→49.72 leg and prior supply), 44.10–44.33 (Fib 0.618 expansion from the latest swing and R2), 45.50–46.00 (heavy daily supply prior to cloud underside).
• Interpretation: We trade in the 39.7–44.3 range, with a developing upward bias after multiple defenses of the 39.7–40.2 demand zone.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (est.): ~43.5–44.0. Price (41.97) is below the 20SMA, indicating the broader short-term trend remains mildly bearish, but price is reverting toward the mean.
• 50-day SMA (est.): upper-40s (~47), well above price, confirming the intermediate downtrend still intact.
• 5–10 day EMAs (qualitative): curling up after the Nov 4 low, with short EMA crossing or approaching the 10 EMA—typical of early momentum rebuild.
• Read: Not a full trend reversal yet, but a mean-reversion chase toward the 20SMA is plausible in the next 24–72 hours; for our 24h horizon, targeting the 43.6–44.3 area aligns with this.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx.): ~40–41. It has lifted off near-oversold readings, but remains below 50, signaling recovery-in-progress rather than overbought risk. Further upside room exists before momentum saturation.
• Stochastic (qualitative): rising from sub-30 toward mid-range; upside momentum building without exhaustion.
• Hourly RSI: mid-to-high 50s during the up-leg; no strong bearish divergence printed into the last push, supportive for another attempt higher if dips are absorbed.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: still below zero (reflecting the medium-term downtrend) but histogram tightening/improving after the Nov 4 low—classic early-stage bullish inflection. A bullish signal-line cross or positive histogram prints in coming sessions would validate continuation toward mid-40s. For 24h, a small positive impulse is consistent.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~4.0–4.5. Expected daily range roughly ±4 around spot, implying a feasible band of ~38–46 next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Price bounced from the lower band on Nov 4–6; now tracking toward the mid-band (the 20SMA). With bands moderately wide (post-crash regime), mean-reversion toward 43.5–44.0 is the path of least resistance if supports hold.

7. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Volume spikes concentrated on selloffs (Oct 10, Nov 4) indicate capitulation-style moves followed by accumulation. Subsequent green days (Nov 5, Nov 7) drew respectable volume, suggesting constructive dip-buying.
• OBV (qualitative): stabilizing and turning up marginally over the last few sessions—consistent with absorption below 42 and distribution pockets shifting higher.
• CMF (qualitative): likely still near zero to slightly negative on the 20-day lookback due to prior selling, but improving as closes migrate higher within daily ranges.
• VWAP (intraday Nov 9): price holding slightly above intraday VWAP into later hours—bullish micro-structure.

8. Ichimoku (daily perspective)

• Price below the cloud; Kijun (26) estimated mid-40s; Tenkan (9) near low-43s. Current price under Tenkan/Kijun implies the larger frame is not yet bullish; however, price reclaiming Tenkan (above ~43) often precedes a test of Kijun (~45–46). For the next 24h, a Tenkan test/breach (43–43.5) is a reasonable objective.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (Oct 17 low 33.53 → Oct 29 high 49.72):
  • 50% retrace: ~41.63 (we are marginally above it now—support on pullbacks)
  • 61.8% retrace: ~39.71 (key defended zone; multiple bounces)
  • 38.2% retrace: ~43.54 (near-term resistance/target)
• Near-term swing (Nov 4 low 35.82 → Nov 7 high 42.28 → Nov 8 low 40.12):
  • 0.618 extension from 40.12 projects ~44.10
  • 1.000 extension projects ~46.58 (beyond a 24h realistic target)
• Confluence: 43.5–44.3 is a confluence zone (Fib 38.2% of the larger leg, 0.618 extension of the near-term leg, and Classic R2 44.33). This is a high-probability magnet if 41.3–41.6 holds.

10. Pivot points (Classic, from Nov 8 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 40.99
• R1 ≈ 42.23 (tested today)
• R2 ≈ 44.33 (untested; aligns with Fib targets)
• S1 ≈ 38.88
• Today’s action: Cleared P early, pressed into and above R1 (max ~42.69), then consolidated. Typical pattern before an R2 probe on the next session if R1 flips to support on dips.

11. Candlestick reads

• Nov 7: strong bull candle closing near highs.
• Nov 8: retracement, but held above the 39.7–40.0 Fib support.
• Nov 9 (intraday): bullish continuation with shallow pullbacks; hourly candles with higher lows and bodies holding above VWAP—healthy micro-bid.

12. Pattern recognition

• Potential inverse head-and-shoulders:
  • Left shoulder (late Oct): high-30s/low-40s
  • Head: Nov 4 low 35.82
  • Right shoulder: Nov 8 low 39.74
  • Neckline: 43.6–44.0. A decisive 4H/daily close above ~44 would complete the pattern, targeting mid-to-high 40s over days. For 24h, a neckline test is feasible; breakout depends on volume.

13. Regression channel and z-score

• Short-term regression (from Nov 4): upward sloping; current price near mid-channel. Z-score vs 20SMA mildly negative moving toward zero—mean reversion underway, not extended.

14. Risk, scenarios, probabilities (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Dip toward 41.3–41.7, then push to 42.5 and attempt 43.5–44.3. Consolidation near 43.8–44.2 into the next session.
• Bull extension (20–25%): Shallow dip or none; direct run at 42.7 → quick tag of 44.1–44.3. Stretch to 44.8 would require a volatility pop and strong flows.
• Bear risk (20–25%): Failure to hold 41.3 leads to a pivot test at ~41.0; loss of 40.9 opens 40.2 and the 39.7–39.8 demand. This would defer the 44 test by a day or two.

15. Strategy synthesis

• Despite a still-bearish higher-timeframe backdrop (price below 20/50 SMAs and cloud), the short-term structure has improved: higher lows, RSI recovery, MACD histogram basing, repeated defenses at key Fib support (39.7–40.2), and an intraday hold above VWAP. Classic pivot progression (P → R1 → pause) often precedes an R2 attempt within 1–2 sessions.
• Confluence target zone for the next leg is 43.6–44.3. The optimal tactical approach is to buy a controlled pullback into 41.3–41.7 with a take-profit inside the confluence band to capture the mean-reversion leg while avoiding the neckline battle’s whipsaw.

16. Trade plan (24h)

• Bias: Buy dips (long).
• Entry: 41.60 (limit) to get filled on a routine pullback into the hourly shelf and just above daily pivot support.
• Target: 44.20 (inside the 43.6–44.3 confluence; aligns with R2 44.33/Fib 0.618 projection 44.10). This optimizes hit rate vs. stretching for the absolute R2 print.
• Notes: If momentum is stronger than expected and there is no pullback, a momentum add-on above 42.75 toward 44.1–44.3 can be considered in live trading (not part of this fixed plan). If weakness emerges and 41.0 breaks decisively, odds shift toward a deeper retest of 40.2/39.7, deferring the long setup.

Forecast

• Expected 24h path: Range 41.0–44.3 with upward skew. Intraday rally attempts likely to encounter supply at 42.7, 43.6, and 44.1–44.3. Best-probability move is mean reversion to the mid-band/neckline confluence near ~44.