Hyperliquid at the Edge: Sell the Bounce into 39, Target the Low 36s

Overview

• Instrument: Hyperliquid (HYPE)
• Currency: $
• Current price: 37.7915
• Data window: 2025-08-16 to 2025-11-13 (daily), with 2025-11-12 to 2025-11-13 intraday (hourly)
• Objective: 24-hour price direction, key levels, trade plan

1. Trend, Structure, and Regime Assessment

• Daily trend: Bearish. A strong impulse down from the late-September/early-October highs (mid-50s) to the October 10 crash (intraday as low as ~26 on the day, but closed 38.14), a dead-cat bounce into late October (~49), then a resumed downtrend through early November. Since Nov 1, the structure is lower highs and lower lows: 43.61 → 43.23 → 42.52 → 40.16 → 39.11 (Nov 4 low) → rebound to 41.36 (Nov 5) → lower high cluster 41.6–42.3 → roll over to 38.31 (Nov 12) → 37.79 now. Market structure remains a descending channel.
• Intraday (hourly) structure, 11/13: Lower highs throughout the session; session high 39.80, progressively stepping down to 38.33 then 37.92, and a late bounce to 37.80 into the close of the provided tape. Price remains beneath intraday moving averages (implied from structure) and was repeatedly capped near 39.3–39.8.
• Regime: Risk-off; momentum-dominant bearish regime with occasional mean-reverting bounces.

2. Support/Resistance and Key Levels (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 39.3–39.8 (today’s intraday rejection band; session high 39.80; repeated failures 39.22–39.40 zone; prior supply from Nov 8–11 range). Above that, 40.2–40.7 (38.2% retracement from 35.82 → 48.45 swing; also a sticky prior close on Oct 23 at 40.20), then 41.3–41.6 (Nov 5 close 41.36 / Nov 10 close 41.60), and 42.1–42.3 (50% retracement of the 35.82–48.45 swing and prior rally cap).
• Immediate support: 37.3–37.4 (multiple historical pivots around 37.38–37.42), 36.8 (today’s intraday low 36.79), then 35.8–36.0 (Nov 4 low 35.82; major daily support). Below 35.8, next visible shelf ~35.2–35.4 (Oct 21 close 35.39; earlier washout low 33.53 on Oct 17 is the tail-risk target).

3. Moving Averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~42.43 (average of last 20 closes). Price at 37.79 is ~10.9% below SMA20 → bearish short-term momentum.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): likely high-40s given September highs and October prints. Price is well below SMA50 → established bearish intermediate trend.
• Intraday (1h) EMAs: Price traded below short- and medium-term intraday EMAs all day, consistent with intraday distribution.

Implication: With price below key SMAs and intraday EMAs, the path of least resistance remains down; rallies into resistance are sellable until proven otherwise.

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~36.0. Bearish but not oversold (<30). Momentum is weak; no strong oversold signal yet. Slight chance of a mild bullish divergence developing against the Nov 4 low, but not confirmed; price makes a marginal new local low while RSI doesn’t make a decisively new low.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Would be trending in lower zone given persistent closes near the day’s lower halves recently; not a clean buy trigger.
• MACD (qualitative): Below zero with signal line crossover likely negative; histogram likely negative. Confirms bearish bias.
• ADX (qualitative): Trend strength likely rising above 20 with -DI > +DI, reinforcing downtrend strength.

Implication: Momentum remains biased lower; no confirmed reversal signal.

5. Volatility and Ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~3.39. Typical daily swing magnitude ~3.4 points. Today’s range 39.80 → 36.79 (~3.00) sits near but slightly below ATR, consistent with an active but not extreme session.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx): Mid ~42.4; lower band estimated mid-34s; upper band ~50. Price at 37.8 is in the lower quartile of the envelope, not at the band but closer to it. Bands were wide after October shock, modestly compressing; currently still sufficient room for 1–1.5 ATR moves without band break.

Implication: Room for another 1–1.5 ATR downside push into 36–35.8 if momentum persists; bounces of 1 ATR into 39–40 are also feasible intraday.

6. Volume, Participation, and Flow

• Major capitulation prints: Oct 10 and Nov 4 had outsized volume with heavy selling, marking key event bars. Subsequent bounces failed into thick overhead supply (39–42), implying distribution on rallies. Recent sessions: upticks on lower volume and downticks on heavier volume suggest persistent distribution.
• OBV (inferred): Sloping down since late October peak; no accumulation footprint visible.
• Intraday today: Heavier prints into the sell waves around 18:00–21:00 hour blocks; rallies lacked follow-through.

Implication: Overhead supply remains; sellers are active into strength.

7. Fibonacci Mapping

• Swing A: Oct 26 high 48.45 to Nov 4 low 35.82 → range 12.63.
  • 38.2%: 40.64; 50%: 42.14; 61.8%: 43.63.
  • Post-low rallies topped beneath 42.3 and failed the 50% line, a classic bearish retracement failure → favors retest of lows.
• Micro swing: Nov 7 high 42.28 to Nov 12 low 38.31 → 38.2–61.8% retrace band 39.83–40.77 capped rallies; today’s 39.80 tag was a precise rejection near a fib cluster.

Implication: The 39.8–40.8 zone is strong confluence resistance; ideal area to sell bounces.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; Kijun (~26-period median) estimated low-43s; cloud overhead and likely thick from the September/October highs; Chikou span below price and below cloud.

Implication: Full Ichimoku bearish stack; no cloud support below; resistance layers above.

9. Pattern Recognition and Candlesticks

• Post-bounce descending channel from late October highs. Price action carved a series of bear flags that resolved lower. The most recent rally attempts (Nov 7–11) formed a flag that broke down into Nov 12–13.
• Candlestick tone: Predominantly red/neutral closes toward lower portions of daily ranges, indicating control by sellers. Today’s hourly bars repeatedly rejected upper wicks around 39.2–39.8.

Implication: Continuation lower favored; bounces are opportunities to reset shorts.

10. Intraday Microstructure and VWAP (inferred)

• Hourly highs/lows show sellers leaning into 39.3–39.8; buyers defended ~37.3–36.8. A session VWAP would sit near the mid 38s given early prints around 39–39.5 and heavier volumes into the 37s/38s. Price finishing below inferred VWAP is bearish for next-session open.

11. Scenario Analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base Case (55%): Early bounce toward 38.6–39.2 (mean reversion) stalls under 39.4; roll-over resumes toward 36.8 support; a break opens 36.0–35.8 (Nov 4 low test). Close near 36.2–36.6.
• Bear Extension (25%): Minimal bounce; quick slip through 36.8, accelerates to 35.8 and probes 35.2–35.4. This would be ~0.7–1.0 ATR more downside from current.
• Bull Countertrend (20%): Reclaim 39.8 on strong impulse, squeeze into 40.6–40.8 (38.2% fib confluence); likely stalls below 41.3–41.6 unless a high-volume trend day develops. Probability of sustained reversal is low without a breadth/volume shift.

12. Risk Management and Trade Plan

• Bias: Sell strength within 39.0 ± 0.3 zone where confluences cluster (hourly rejection area, fib resistance, overhead supply).
• Invalidation: A decisive reclaim and hold above 40.7–41.0 (hourly close >40.7 and follow-through) would negate the immediate short setup and shift bias to neutral/short-on-higher rally.
• Targeting: First target 36.1–35.9 (near Nov 4 low), with potential extension to 35.3 if momentum accelerates.
• Protective stop (for planning): 40.80–41.10 above fib/structural resistance (outside the 38.2% retracement and above intraday supply). Risk ~1.9–2.2 vs reward ~3.0 from an ideal 38.9 entry → R multiple ~1.4–1.6, with extension potential to >2R on 35.3.

Conclusion and 24h Prediction

• Expect an early relief bounce to 38.6–39.2 that fails under 39.4–39.8, followed by a push to 36.8; if broken, price tags 36.0–35.8 within the next 24 hours. Trend, momentum, and overhead supply argue for selling rallies rather than bottom-fishing.

Trade Execution Summary

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Optimal entry: 38.95 (limit on bounce into resistance band 38.6–39.3)
• Take-profit (primary): 35.95 (just above the key 35.82 low to preempt front-running)
• Note: If price fails to bounce, an alternative is a momentum add-on below 36.75 with a tighter stop; however, the primary plan prioritizes risk/reward from selling strength.