ICP’s V-Recovery: Dip-Then-Rip Setup Toward $4.22–$4.30 Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-method technical review for ICP (Internet Computer) with a 24-hour trading plan

Current context and tape reading

• Instrument: ICP/USD
• Current price: $4.033 (as of 2025-11-02 ~20:57 UTC)
• Recent regime shift: After the 2025-10-10 crash (intraday low near $1.98; daily close ~$3.04) and a basing phase between ~$2.89–$3.30 through late October, ICP broke out on 2025-11-01 with a volume surge and extended to $4.225 on 2025-11-02 before pulling back to ~$4.03. This marks a short-term uptrend within a mid-term downtrend.

1. Trend, structure, and market profile

• Daily structure: Higher low sequence since 2025-10-30 ($2.892) and 2025-10-31 ($2.940) followed by higher highs into $4.225. Short-term trend up, intermediate trend down (50D still above price).
• Hourly structure (Nov 1–2): Ascending sequence from ~$3.44 to $4.225 with higher lows around $3.48, $3.66, and $3.90, then a controlled pullback to ~$4.03. This is consistent with a wave-4 style pause after an impulsive wave-3 push.
• Volume profile (last 48h): HVNs around $3.55–$3.65 and $3.95–$4.05; LVNs around $3.80–$3.85. The most recent acceptance area shifted up to $3.95–$4.05, indicating buyers defending near $4.00.

2. Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: $3.98–$4.00 (intraday acceptance), $3.90–$3.92 (0.382–0.5 retrace of the $3.44→$4.225 impulse), $3.84–$3.88 (hourly swing low cluster), $3.66 (Nov 2 morning base), $3.55 (prior HVN).
• Resistances: $4.15–$4.22 (recent high/liquidity), $4.28–$4.33 (September congestion and prior daily POC region), $4.42–$4.43 (classic pivot R3 and prior daily supply), $4.58–$4.69 (late-September/early-October supply shelf, 50D proximity).

3. Moving averages (approximated from provided data)

• 20D SMA ≈ $3.16–$3.18 (based on closes Oct 14–Nov 1; adding Nov 2 would lift it modestly). Price ($4.03) is well above 20D SMA → short-term bullish momentum.
• 10D EMA likely around $3.35–$3.45; price is above → momentum supportive.
• 50D SMA estimated ~ $4.6–$4.8 (given late-Aug to early-Oct closes). Price remains below → medium-term trend still down; expect supply on approach to $4.4–$4.7.
• Read-through: Bullish short-term regime against a still-declining medium-term baseline; rallies into $4.4–$4.7 likely meet supply first pass.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): After oversold mid-October, RSI has likely rebounded into the mid-50s to low-60s. Not overbought yet on daily, supports further upside after shallow dips.
• RSI (hourly): Likely cooled from overbought (>70) on the $3.44→$4.225 spike back toward neutral 50–55 during the pullback to $4.03. This supports a “buy-the-dip” over the next sessions.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Bullish crossover underway with histogram expansion since Oct 31/Nov 1. Momentum inflection supports continuation after consolidations.
• MACD (hourly): Momentum peaked near $4.22 and is now flattening after mean-reversion — consistent with a wave-4/flag before another attempt higher.

5. Volatility and range statistics

• ATR (14D, qualitative): Elevated post-crash; day ranges of ~6–20% have occurred. Current 24h realized shows ~8–10% swing ($3.88–$4.22). Expect a 24h range of roughly $3.90–$4.28 barring news shock.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price is near/at the upper band following a band expansion; first touch often leads to a brief mean-reversion into rising 10–20D means, then continuation. With 20D mean far below (~$3.17), a total reversion is less likely in 24h; shallow pullbacks into $3.90–$3.98 are favored.

6. Fibonacci and confluence

• Major swing (pre-crash high to crash low): Using Oct 3 high ~$4.694 and Oct 30 low ~$2.892, current rally to $4.225 represents ~74% retracement of the entire down-leg ((4.225-2.892)/(4.694-2.892) ≈ 0.74). This sits between 0.618 and 0.786, a classic resistance pocket; explains the initial rejection from $4.225.
• Impulse leg (Nov 1–2): $3.44 → $4.225. Retracements: 0.382 ≈ $3.93; 0.5 ≈ $3.83; 0.618 ≈ $3.74. Price is hovering just above the 0.382 level, a typical shallow bullish pullback. Ideal dip-buy zone aligns with $3.92–$3.98.
• Extensions: A measured equal-leg (AB=CD) from the base ($3.44→$3.90 pullback → $4.22) projects a terminal near $4.26–$4.33, aligning with September congestion — adds confluence for a take-profit band.

7. Pivot points (Classic, derived from 2025-11-01 H/L/C: 3.629/2.939/3.443)

• Pivot P ≈ $3.337; R1 ≈ $3.735; R2 ≈ $4.027; R3 ≈ $4.425; S1 ≈ $3.045; S2 ≈ $2.647.
• Price is oscillating around R2 ($4.027), which often acts like a magnet/support-turned-resistance. Holding above R2 converts it into a springboard toward $4.15–$4.22 and possibly $4.28–$4.33. R3 at $4.425 aligns with a stretch objective.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely below/near the cloud base from the $4.3–$4.6 zone; Tenkan > Kijun and price above both → early bullish phase, but cloud overhead suggests staggered resistance into mid-$4s.
• 4H/1H: Price above turning and standard lines, with a bullish cloud twist seen intraday; pullbacks to the Kijun on 1H (~$3.95–$4.00) are typically bought in nascent uptrends.

9. Wyckoff lens

• The October breakdown and subsequent basing resembles an Accumulation with a Spring (~$2.89) and SOS rally into early November. Current action ($4.22 rejection then $4.03) looks like a Backup (BU/LPS) to the breakout zone around $3.95–$4.05. If this holds, the next SOS rally targets $4.22 first, then $4.28–$4.33.

10. Elliott wave micro-count (intraday)

• Wave 1: $3.44 → $3.66; Wave 2: pullback $3.66 → $3.60; Wave 3 extended: $3.60 → $4.22; Wave 4: current drift $4.22 → ~$4.00; Wave 5 projection: $4.20–$4.30 (often 0.618–1.0 of Wave 1, capped by supply). This supports a tactical long on the dip for a new high marginally above $4.22.

11. Candles and pattern read

• Daily Nov 1: Large bullish candle with strong close, initiative buying.
• Intraday Nov 2: Long upper wick near $4.22 followed by orderly pullback—classic pause/flag rather than impulsive reversal. No distributional volume signature yet.

12. Correlation and regime risk (qualitative)

• With crypto beta elevated and recent breadth improving, ICP’s breakout is in line with risk-on microstructure. However, medium-term supply remains above; expect two-way trade around $4.2–$4.4.

13. Scenarios next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Dip to $3.92–$3.98, buyers defend R2 pivot area; push toward $4.15–$4.22 with a chance to probe $4.26–$4.30. Likely close in $4.12–$4.20.
• Bullish extension (25%): Quick reclaim of $4.15, strong sweep of $4.22 liquidity, extension to $4.28–$4.33; tails may test $4.37–$4.42 (R3 proximity) before settling above $4.20.
• Bearish fade (20%): Deeper pullback toward $3.83–$3.85 (0.5 retrace) or even $3.74 (0.618) if momentum stalls; structure remains intact above $3.66. Only sustained trade below $3.55 would negate the bullish short-term setup.

14. Trade plan and risk management (tactical long)

• Rationale to Buy: Short-term uptrend above 10/20D MA, bullish MACD/RSI posture, Wyckoff BU/LPS behavior at $3.95–$4.05, R2 pivot flip near $4.03, Elliott wave suggesting a final micro wave-5 toward/above $4.22.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy around $3.96 (just under current price), capturing the 0.382–0.5 micro retrace zone and the hourly Kijun area; high probability of a tag during Asia/EU session liquidity rotations.
• Target: $4.22 primary (recent high/liquidity pocket). Stretch: $4.28–$4.33; Conservative: $4.15 if momentum underperforms.
• Implied R:R with a discretionary stop (not required but prudent): Stop idea $3.82 (below 0.5 retrace and below $3.84 swing cluster). Risk ~$0.14 vs reward to $4.22 of ~$0.26 → ~1.85R; to $4.28 → ~2.3R.

15. Summary and decision

• The weight of evidence favors a dip-then-rip continuation toward $4.22 with potential extension into $4.28–$4.33 over the next 24 hours. Medium-term supply remains higher ($4.4–$4.7), so treat this as a tactical long rather than a swing to the 50D.

Prediction (24h): Expect consolidation above $3.90, probe $3.92–$3.98, then advance to $4.18–$4.25; probability-weighted high ~$4.27, low ~$3.90, close ~$4.16.

Actionable levels

• Buy limit: $3.96
• Take profit: $4.22 (with discretionary runners to $4.28–$4.33 if momentum is strong)
• Optional stop (for planning only): $3.82

Note: No news catalysts considered; sudden market-wide risk-off could invalidate the setup. Manage size accordingly.