Injective (INJ) Exhaustive 24-Hour Technical Analysis & Prediction

1. Trend Analysis (Macro + Micro)

Macro Trend (Last 90 Days)

• Early April to mid-May: A prolonged downtrend and base formation in the $7 to $9 range, evidenced by lower lows and lower highs. Volume remained steady but low.
• May 8: Major breakout initiated at $9.56 with volume surge (154M vs previous avg. ~90M), price exploded to $14.32 (May 22), peaking at $15.44 (May 28).
• Journey from late May shows peak followed by swift retracement—down from $15.44 (May 28) to $11.77 (June 13). This signals profit-taking and exhaustion after an overextended bullish move.
• June 13–17: Further break below support at $12.00, culminating in current $11.15. Volatility up, but selling pressure dominating.

Short-Term / Intraday Trend (Last 24h & 7 Days)

• Sequence of lower highs and lower lows for the past 2–3 sessions. Key supports ($12.00, $11.50) breached, and $11.00 tested intraday June 17.
• Recent hourly candles: Very small real bodies, long wicks, showing indecision. Notably, large red candles at 14:00–16:00 UTC June 17, indicating a sharp sell-off attempt followed by weak retracement.
• Repeated failures to recapture $11.60–$11.70 on bounces illustrate waning bullish momentum.

2. Price Action & Candlestick Patterns

• Daily candles since June 12 forming a descending channel. Each green candle met resistance quickly.
• Hourly data: Multiple doji and spinning tops, especially on the bounce attempts. At 15:00–16:00 UTC June 17, a bearish engulfing pattern and follow-through occurred.
• Volatility spike followed by compressed price action: often precedes a renewed directional move (in this setup, likely lower given downward bias).

3. Volume Profile Analysis

• Volume for June 17: ~138M, notably high vs daily mean of last week (~100M) but with price falling—classic sign of distribution.
• Accumulation seen in early May is absent in June. Present volumes on downward moves confirm sellers are active and momentum is turning bearish.
• No significant volume support at $11.00, the next major volume-based support nearer to $10.50 and then $9.80 (as per May’s consolidation region).

4. Moving Averages

• 20-day SMA: Currently at ~$12.25
• 50-day SMA: Around ~$11.75
• 200-day SMA: Near $10.80

Current price ($11.15) is below all short-term and medium-term moving averages. The 20-day SMA just crossed below 50-SMA (bearish crossover), and price is also below the 200-SMA—signals medium-term weakness.

The moving averages on hourly charts: 8-EMA and 21-EMA both sloping downwards, price consistently rejected at these levels ($11.35 and $11.60 intraday resistance).

5. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: 35, showing weak momentum and not yet oversold (sub-30).
• Hourly RSI: Hovering 40–45, points to subdued strength and continued space to drop.

6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD lines are well below zero, with histograms growing negative since June 13.
• No sign of a bullish crossover; momentum remains to the downside.

7. Bollinger Bands

• Bands have widened significantly since June 13, corresponding with the latest move from $12.30 to $11.15.
• Current price is hugging the lower band, indicating trend continuation rather than an oversold bounce.

8. Fibonacci Retracement (from $7.05 March low to $15.44 May high)

• 38.2% retrace: ~$12.20
• 50% retrace: ~$11.25
• 61.8% retrace: ~$10.30

Price is currently at the 50% retracement, but no buying interest is visible—a break lower targets $10.30 next.

9. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance: $11.60 (intraday high, key hourly EMA)
• Next resistance: $12.00–$12.20 (recent breakdown zone)
• Immediate support: $11.00 (last test, held late session), then $10.50–$10.30 (Fibo & volume support)
• Next support: $9.80 (major prior base)

10. Order Book and Market Sentiment (Deductive)

• Several high-volume, failed attempts to reverse in past 24h suggest market orders skewed to the sell side.
• Momentum and fund flow are negative—recent rallies are being sold rather than sustained.

11. Volatility and ATR (Average True Range)

• Daily ATR currently expanded—favors tactical swing/position trades. Risk is on the downside as volatility spikes are driven by sellers.

12. Elliott Wave Count (Hypothetical)

• May's rally likely completed an impulsive wave 3; subsequent action is corrective (wave 4 in process?). If so, further retracement to $10.30 or even $9.80 before next rally base sets up.

13. Synthesis and 24h Prediction

• Trend, momentum, and volume confirm the short-term path of least resistance is lower.
• Supports ($11.00) likely to be pressured and potentially lost.
• Given lack of oversold conditions, and broad-based market weakness, expecting continued downside toward $10.30–10.50 over the next 24 hours.
• Only a rapid reclaim of $11.60 would invalidate short bias; currently highly improbable given failed bounce attempts.

14. Risk/Reward and Execution

• Ideal short entry: On a failed retest of $11.30–$11.20—strength into resistance.
• Profit target: $10.35 (near 61.8% Fibo and next major support).
• Stop-loss (not required by prompt, but for completeness): $11.65 (recent swing high/intraday resistance).

Summary: All methods align: SELL, as continued downside is statistically favored.

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Position: SELL (Short) Open Price: $11.15–$11.20 (market, or limit sell on bounce) Profit Target: $10.35 (major support, Fibo, volume confluence)

Session remains highly volatile; meticulous order placement recommended.