INJ: Sell the Rip into 9.50–9.60; Target a Drift Back to the $9.00 Handle

Injective (INJ) – 24h Technical Game Plan

Executive snapshot

• Current price: $9.23 (intraday low printed ~$9.12, mild bounce underway)
• Regime: Short-term downtrend within a broader medium-term downtrend after an extreme volatility event (10/10 flash-crash/liquidation wick). Price is trading below key daily MAs, below 1h cloud/Kijun, and sub-pivot, with intraday momentum weak. Nearby supports cluster around $9.08–$9.12 and $8.95–$9.00; overhead supply sits $9.50–$9.75.
• Bias next 24h: Sell strength into resistance; range expectation $8.95–$9.65 with a likely rally into $9.50–$9.60 failing on first test.

1. Market structure and multi-timeframe trend

• Daily structure: A sequence of lower highs and lower lows from mid-August ($16.5) to late September ($12). Early October bounce attempts stalled in the low-$13s before the 10/10 shock (low print $3.75, close $8.60). Since then: 10/11 held $8.49 close, 10/12 advanced to $9.58 close, 10/13 to $9.92 close. Today retracing back to ~$9.23. Net: bear market rally after a deleveraging flush, now rolling over.
• 4h/1h structure (using provided hourly slices): 10/13 strength topped ~10.07–10.09, then a steady sequence of lower highs (10.07 → 9.99 → 9.88 → 9.73 → 9.51) and lower lows culminating 10/14 ~9.12. This is a clean intraday downtrend channel; price sits near lower channel support with a minor bounce underway.
• Key levels (derived):
  • Resistance/supply: 9.50–9.55 (yesterday’s S1/pivot cluster, prior intraday distribution), 9.72–9.76 (value/acceptance), 9.96–10.08 (round 10 + 10/13 HOD), 10.21 (pivot R1 from 10/13).
  • Support/demand: 9.08–9.12 (10/14 low region + daily pivot S2 and 50–61.8% retrace band), 8.95–9.00 (61.8% Fib zone + round-number magnet), 8.49 (10/11 close), 8.26 (10/11 swing low), 8.60 (10/10 close reference).

2. Moving averages and baseline trend filters

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approx): Price is decisively below 20/50-day SMAs (20D ~12.8–13.2; 50D ~14+), confirming medium-term bearish regime. Any bounce toward ~11–13 would still be countertrend on the daily.
• 1h EMAs (fast 9/slow 21/50): Price is below all three; the EMA ribbon is fanned bearishly downward. Expect the 21/50-EMA area (~9.48–9.60) to act as first strong supply on a bounce.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Recovered from extreme oversold post-crash but still sub-50 (bearish while below midline). Plenty of room to oscillate without breaking the bear control.
• 1h RSI: Hit oversold near the 9.12 print; now rebounding toward 40–45 zone. Typical bear-market bounce: RSI often fails in 45–55 range during downtrends. Expect failure beneath 50 on first test, aligning with sell-the-rip plan.
• MACD (1h): Below zero with recent histogram contraction—classic setup for a weak bearish pullback (bounce) before trend continuation. A shallow bullish cross under the zero-line often sells.
• Stochastics (1h): Recently sub-20 and curling up—supports a near-term bounce into resistance but not necessarily a trend change.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, ~20): Bands expanded sharply on 10/10 due to the outlier wick; lower band likely pulled down. Price is still tracking the lower half of the envelope. Expect mean-reversion attempts, but the “mean” is far above spot; with a fresh downtrend on 1h, bounces likely stall near mid-band/EMA clusters on intraday frames (9.5–9.6).
• Keltner Channels (1h): Price hugging/below midline; a push to the mid/upper Keltner aligns around 9.50–9.60—again a confluence sell zone.
• ATR: Daily ATR expanded massively post-flash crash, implying wider intraday ranges; plan entries at edges, not mid-range.

5. Volume analytics and profile

• Post-crash volume remained elevated (10/10–10/13), indicating active repositioning. 10/14 early hours show sell-side aggression notably ~06:00–07:00 UTC on the drop to 9.12.
• Market profile (10/13–10/14 intraday): Prior value built between 9.60–9.90 with a prominent node ~9.75. Today’s migration of value lower suggests acceptance below 9.50. First retest of prior value area low (~9.50) often rejects on initial attempt in a trend day down or value migration down scenario.
• VWAP: 10/14 session VWAP likely above current (~9.45–9.55 est). Price below VWAP favors selling bounces back to/just above VWAP.

6. Fibonacci mapping (near-term swing)

• Swing measured: 10/11 low 8.255 → 10/13 high 10.086 (range 1.831).
  • 38.2%: 9.387; 50%: 9.171; 61.8%: 8.955.
  • Price probed just below 50% (~9.12) and is oscillating between 50% and 38.2%. 61.8% (8.95–8.96) is a highly probable magnet if 9.17–9.20 breaks again. This lines up with our profit target zone for a short.
• Minor intraday swing 10/13 evening high ~10.04 to 10/14 low ~9.12: 38.2–61.8% pullback lies ~9.45–9.66—precise confluence with supply and EMAs.

7. Ichimoku (1h)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Lagging span under price and cloud—full bearish stack.
• Kijun/Cloud resistance aligns in the 9.50–9.70 region; first approach tends to reject unless accompanied by strong momentum, which is absent.

8. Pivot points (10/13 reference)

• P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ (10.0856 + 9.3752 + 9.9241)/3 ≈ 9.795.
• R1 ≈ 10.215; S1 ≈ 9.504; R2 ≈ 10.506; S2 ≈ 9.084.
• Current price ~9.23 sits just above S2 (~9.08); natural ping to S1 (~9.50) is common if bears allow a relief bounce. S1 and the underside of P are prime sell zones.

9. Candlestick/price action tells

• 10/10 liquidation wick to 3.75 with a strong close rebound typically yields a 1–3 day relief rally. We saw that into 10/13. Now the rally is fading with clear lower highs and increasing supply at prior intraday nodes—textbook post-liquidation fade.
• Today’s intraday candles show long upper wicks on small recoveries and strong body on down bars, indicating responsive sellers dominating.

10. Wyckoff/Elliott perspective (heuristic)

• Wyckoff: 10/10 event resembles a selling climax (SC) followed by automatic rally (AR) and now secondary test (ST) behavior—but the ST is not clean; the structure still sits beneath key resistance, suggesting we’re early in a potential re-accumulation OR we proceed with markdown continuation. With price below value and MAs, treat as markdown continuation until proven otherwise.
• Elliott: From 10/13 high, intraday looks like a 5-wave decline or an A-wave down with a B-wave bounce pending into 9.5–9.6, followed by C down toward 9.0. Either way, first bounce is favored as corrective.

11. Confluence and scenario planning

• Confluence sell zone: 9.50–9.60
  • 1h EMA21/50 cluster
  • 38.2–61.8% intraday retrace of the 10/13→10/14 drop
  • Prior value area low and VWAP vicinity
  • Pivot S1 (≈9.50) and underside of daily pivot
  • Ichimoku Kijun/Cloud underside
• Support target zone: 9.05–9.12 (S2 + 50% daily swing), extension to 8.95–9.00 (61.8% daily swing + round number)

Probability-weighted 24h outlook

• Base case (60%): Relief bounce from 9.20 area into 9.50–9.60, failure, then bleed lower to retest 9.10 and stretch toward 9.00–9.05 before stabilizing. Range closes near 9.10–9.20.
• Bull case (20%): Stronger squeeze pierces 9.60 and tests 9.72–9.76 acceptance; only sustained reclaim above 9.76–9.80 flips the 1h bias and opens a run at 9.95–10.05. Less likely given breadth of sell pressure.
• Bear extension (20%): Minimal bounce, swift break of 9.12 → 9.00 → spike to 8.85–8.95 before a sharp intraday counter-rally. This could occur if broader crypto risk-off resumes or another liquidity pocket is tagged.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Strategy: Sell the rip into first resistance confluence; avoid chasing lows amid expanding ATR. Enter via a resting sell limit in the 9.50–9.55 zone.
• Entry: $9.52 (optimal within confluence)
• Take-profit: $9.07 (just above 61.8% daily retrace/round-number liquidity pocket; front-run the 9.00 handle)
• Invalidation (analysis only): A decisive reclaim and hold above $9.74 (prior acceptance shelf) would negate the immediate short and suggest a move to $9.95–$10.05.
• Risk/reward (analysis only): Entry 9.52, TP 9.07 (reward 0.45). Suggested protective stop ~9.74 (risk 0.22). R:R ≈ 2.0.

Why not buy here?

• Longs have poor asymmetry at $9.23 with nearby overhead supply and a clear 1h downtrend. Better long location would be a flush/reversal from 8.95–9.00 with confirmation, or a reclaim >9.76 with acceptance.

Key confirmations to watch

• Does the bounce stall with bearish divergences near 9.50–9.60?
• Is VWAP rejected on the first test?
• Does volume increase on down legs versus up legs? (Continuation signal.)
• Any 1h close back above 9.76 would be a warning for shorts to reassess.

Bottom line

• The highest-probability 24h play is to sell into the 9.50–9.60 bounce and target the 9.05–9.10 region, with an extension to ~9.00 likely if momentum accelerates. The broader trend remains bearish; intraday is a controlled downswing with resistance overhead.