INJ at the 5.00 Wall: Fade the Bounce, Aim for 4.85

Injective (INJ) — full-spectrum technical read, next 24h game plan

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher-timeframe (daily): INJ remains in a firm downtrend since the October structural break (flash crash to 3.75 intraday, close 8.60) followed by a persistent series of lower highs and lower lows. Recent daily closes have stair-stepped from ~6.08 (Dec 10 high) down to 4.96 (Dec 15 close). Structure shows a descending channel/descending triangle with a horizontal demand shelf around 4.83–4.90 and successively lower swing highs (6.08 → 5.37 → current sub-5 rejections). Bias: bearish until a daily close back above ~5.30–5.45.
• Intraday (hourly): Past 24h printed a small bounce off ~4.875 toward 5.017, then churned under the 5.00 psychological level. Current trades cluster around 4.95–4.98 with repeated failures near 5.00–5.02. This signals intraday supply at the round number and alignment with higher-timeframe resistance.
• Candles: Dec 15 formed a long lower shadow (low 4.826) but closed red below the open—more of a “buying tail” than a hammer, implying responsive bids at 4.83 without trend reversal confirmation. Today’s hours print small-bodied candles under 5.00—indecision beneath resistance.

2. Key levels and confluence

• Immediate resistance: 5.00–5.05 (psychological round, intraday supply, classical daily pivot P ≈ 5.053 from 12/15 H/L/C). Above that: 5.28 (R1), 5.31–5.45 (Fibo 38.2%–50% of 6.083 → 4.826 leg), and 5.60–5.62 (61.8%).
• Immediate support: 4.90 → 4.87 → 4.83 (yesterday’s low). Below 4.83: 4.73–4.74 (daily S1 ≈ 4.735), then 4.50–4.55 measured move zone from the descending triangle height (~5.30–4.83).
• Intraday Fibonacci (last swing 4.875 → 5.017): 50% ≈ 4.946, 61.8% ≈ 4.963. Price is oscillating around the 50–61.8% pocket; repeated failure to hold above 4.963 leans slightly bearish.

3. Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMAs: SMA5 ≈ 5.28, SMA10 ≈ 5.45, SMA20 notably higher (~5.8–5.9). Bearish order: price < SMA5 < SMA10 < SMA20. This alignment typically implies rallies into 5.00–5.30 are sell opportunities until reclaimed.
• EMAs/EMA ribbon: The ribbon is fanned bearishly with price below the 8/13/21 EMAs; rallies stall beneath the short EMAs (confluent with 5.00–5.10). No bullish cross setup yet.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated mid-30s (≈ 33–38). That’s bearish with mild oversold risk, consistent with bounces that fade under resistance. No confirmed bullish divergence versus the 4.826 low (RSI lows track price lows reasonably).
• Hourly RSI(14): Hovering around neutral-to-slightly-bearish (≈ 45–50). Small bearish momentum when failing at 5.00, not panic-level oversold.
• Stochastic RSI: Intraday cycles are peaking near the 5.00 retest; a fresh downturn from overbought would favor a move back toward 4.90–4.86.
• MACD (daily): Below zero, histogram flattening but not crossing—bear momentum is easing but still in control. On hourly, weak bull momentum earlier today is fading beneath 5.00.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Price is riding/pressing the lower band after a breakdown week—classic bearish walk scenario. Mean-reversion rallies are possible, but until mid-band (~SMA20) is reclaimed, rallies likely fail. Current proximity to/below lower band argues for small bounces that sellers fade.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20, ATR-based): Price sits below the middle line and near/under the lower channel edge, confirming a downtrend with modest oversold risk. A test into the channel underside (~5.00–5.10) is a textbook short area.
• ATR(14) daily: Roughly 0.35–0.45. A 24h swing of 3–5% is very plausible. Targeting a 0.15–0.20 move fits within one ATR.

6. Volume/flow

• Volume pattern: Post-breakdown, rallies show declining volume while down days keep decent participation—distribution character. The intraday rise to ~5.02 did not attract follow-through buying; supply caps price under 5.00.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative read): Both skewed negatively over the last two weeks—net outflows and distribution bias. No clear accumulation signature yet.

7. Ichimoku

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun, far below a thick future cloud. Chikou span below price. Net bearish system read. Tenkan/Kijun caps typically align near 5.00–5.20; rejection expected on first tests.

8. DMI/ADX

• DMI: -DI > +DI on daily. ADX rising into the low/mid 20s signals trend is maturing but still active. This favors trend-continuation sells on rallies, not bottom-fishing.

9. Pivots and levels (12/15 H/L/C → classical pivots)

• Pivot P ≈ 5.053 (price below → bearish bias)
• R1 ≈ 5.281, R2 ≈ 5.599
• S1 ≈ 4.735, S2 ≈ 4.507 Current price is wedged between S1 and P, skewing toward a drift lower unless P is reclaimed.

10. Fibonacci mapping (swing 6.083 → 4.826)

• 38.2% ≈ 5.306; 50% ≈ 5.455; 61.8% ≈ 5.604. Price below 38.2% implies bears still control retracements; any bounce into 5.28–5.31 is prime supply.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle: Flat-ish base 4.83–4.90, lower highs compressing from above. Pattern generally resolves lower in a downtrend. Measured move (height ~0.40–0.50) points toward 4.40–4.50 on a confirmed daily break of 4.83, though that may be beyond 24h. Into the next day, first target area 4.85–4.73 (S1) is realistic if selling resumes.
• Channel behavior: Price oscillations respect a downward channel; we are near the lower-middle of the channel—room for a marginal bounce, then another push lower.

12. Heikin-Ashi and candle cues

• Recent daily Heikin-Ashi candles predominantly bearish (small/absent upper wicks), indicating persistent downside momentum. Today’s smaller body under 5.00 is more of a pause than a reversal print.

13. Statistical/seasonal quick-take

• 5–10 day drift is negative; down days have larger bodies than up days recently. Any mean-reversion bounce struggles to exceed one ATR before sellers reassert.

14. 24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

• Base case (60%): Rejection from 5.00–5.02, grind lower toward 4.90 first, extension probe into 4.86–4.85. Risk of a wick to 4.83. Range expectation: ~4.83–5.02.
• Bull variant (25%): Brief reclaim of 5.00 toward 5.05–5.10; stalls below 5.12–5.15 and fades. Needs a strong hourly close above ~5.05 with volume to invalidate the immediate short.
• Bear extension (15%): Momentum accelerates, slicing 4.83 and tagging 4.74 (S1) within the session on a liquidity sweep.

15. Trade plan synthesis and risk

• Tactical edge: Short rallies into 5.00–5.02 where multi-tool confluence stacks (psychological round, daily pivot P, short EMA cluster, intraday supply, Bollinger/Keltner underside). Trend is down on all active timeframes; momentum mixed but insufficient to flip bias.
• Invalidation: Strong hourly close above ~5.05 and especially daily hold above 5.12–5.15 would weaken the short setup (opens path to 5.28–5.31). A disciplined stop should sit above that band.
• Risk controls (guidance): Consider a stop 5.08–5.12 depending on tolerance; target 4.85 initial. That’s ~0.16–0.27 reward vs ~0.09–0.13 risk → about 1.2–2.0R depending on exact stop.

Conclusion: Short the 5.00 wall; expect a drift back to 4.85 with tail risk to 4.83. Only a clean reclaim and hold above ~5.05–5.12 would negate.