INJ’s Countertrend Rally: Buy the Dip into 4.74–4.78 for a Push Toward 5.05–5.15

Note: This is a market-education analysis, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile; manage risk and size positions appropriately.

Executive read: INJ has been in a persistent multi‑month downtrend, but the last 24 hours show a constructive intraday bullish reversal above VWAP with a sequence of higher highs/lows on the 1h chart. Price is rebounding off a fresh swing low (4.36–4.43 area) and is now approaching a dense resistance cluster between 5.00–5.30 (Fib 38.2%/50%/61.8%, R2, prior supply). Near-term momentum favors a continuation push into 5.00–5.10 within 24h after a pullback toward the 4.72–4.78 value area. Optimal plan: buy the dip; target first major resistance pocket 5.05–5.15. Risk of a fade back to 4.62 support if the breakout attempt fails.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher time frame (daily): Strong downtrend from early October. Series of lower highs and lower lows from ~8.18 (Nov 10) to 4.43 (Dec 18 close) and 4.37 (Dec 19 intraday low). Today is forming a potential morning-star style recovery day (if daily close holds above ~4.65 midpoint of yesterday’s large candle).
• Intermediate structure: Possible double-bottom/Adam-Eve style formation across 4.41–4.43 with a neckline around 4.68–4.70. The measured move from the neckline (~0.27) projects ~4.95; price already tagged 4.90, leaving room to press 4.95–5.05.
• Intraday (1h): Clean trend day up: 4.41 → 4.90 with higher highs/lows. Recent minor pullback from 4.90 to 4.84 looks like a bull flag consolidation above prior micro swing supports 4.76–4.78.
• Key levels: • Support: 4.70–4.78 (value area), 4.62 (Dec 17 close/1h swing), 4.43–4.37 (cycle low zone), psychological 4.50. • Resistance: 4.95–5.05 (Fib 38.2% and classic R2 cluster), 5.15–5.30 (Fib 50–61.8% and prior shelf), 5.66–5.83 (heavier supply from early Dec).

2. Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approx): • SMA20 ≈ 5.37 (price 4.84 below → downtrend remains). • SMA50/200 are well above current price given the protracted decline → macro bearish backdrop. • Short EMAs (8/13) on 1h have crossed up and are fanning positively (bullish intraday).
• Takeaway: Macro trend is still down; micro trend (1h) is up. Expect mean-reversion bounces into resistance rather than a full trend reversal without confirmation above ~5.30.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: recovering from oversold; estimate low 30s rising toward high 30s/low 40s. Bullish momentum inflection but sub-50 means recovery, not dominance.
• RSI(14) 1h: ~60–65 on the push; modestly over bullish but not extreme—room for another attempt higher after a dip.
• Stochastic Daily: curling up from oversold (<20 → ~30–35). Early recovery signal.
• CCI Daily: lifting from deeply negative toward -100/ -50 zone—supports a bounce phase.
• MACD Daily: Histogram improving toward zero; potential bullish divergence vs the Dec 18 lower low (momentum loss in the down move). Signal line still below zero → it’s a countertrend rally.
• MACD 1h: Positive with increasing histogram earlier; currently consolidating. Likely another uptick if price defends 4.72–4.78.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (approx): ~0.45–0.55. Implies an expected 24h move on the order of ±9–11% from the mean.
• 24h scenario envelope: From 4.75 base, upside probe to ~5.20; downside test to ~4.30 if momentum fails. Central expectation skewed upward given intraday structure and breadth improvement.

5. Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands Daily (20,2): • Basis ≈ 5.37; Lower ≈ ~4.47; Upper ≈ ~6.27 (approx with recent stdev). Price bounced off/just above lower band yesterday and is walking up the lower band—classic mean-reversion setup toward the basis over multiple sessions; near-term, first friction at 5.0–5.3.
• Keltner Channel Daily: Price lifting from the lower KC; often sees a reversion toward the midline—consistent with a rally into ~5.0–5.2.
• Descending channel: Upper channel resistance aligns with 5.1–5.3. Confluence reinforces profit-taking zone.

6. Volume and flow

• Daily volume: Spiked on down legs, tapering on basing days; today shows healthier intraday participation on green candles—constructive for a bounce.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing; slight uptick today. Confirmation would improve if price clears 5.05 on rising volume.
• Accumulation/Distribution (qualitative): Today’s closes above session midpoints tilts positive.
• VWAP (session, 1h-weighted calc): ≈ 4.63. Current price 4.84 is comfortably above VWAP—bullish intraday bias. Expect dip-buys above/near VWAP retests.
• Volume profile (intraday): Value area centered ~4.65–4.75; POC near ~4.74. Pullbacks into this zone are likely defended on first touch.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below the cloud; Tenkan ≈ ~5.2; Kijun ≈ ~5.6. Bearish regime overall; room for a Tenkan test (5.1–5.2) during rebounds.
• 1h: Price above Tenkan/Kijun with a bullish cross; Span A rising; thin cloud ahead—supports a continuation push before meeting daily cloud resistance overhead (not in 24h scope likely).

8. ADX/DMI and Aroon

• Daily ADX: Elevated from the persistent downtrend; -DI still above +DI but converging—suggestive of trend weakening and a bounce phase.
• 1h ADX: ~20–25 with +DI > -DI—supports near-term bullish impulse.
• Aroon 1h: Up trending (Aroon Up high, Aroon Down retreating) consistent with today’s higher high/low structure.

9. Parabolic SAR and Heikin Ashi

• 1h Parabolic SAR likely flipped below price during the 4.56–4.65 breakout—supports a trailing-bias long until a SAR flip.
• Heikin Ashi 1h candles show a sequence of larger bodies with small lower wicks earlier, now narrowing—typical of a pause before next leg or minor pullback.

10. Fibonacci mapping (last swing: 12/10 high to 12/18 low)

• Swing high ~6.08 to swing low ~4.37 → Δ ≈ 1.71.
• Fib 38.2% ≈ 5.02; 50% ≈ 5.16; 61.8% ≈ 5.29. This creates a dense resistance shelf 5.02–5.29 that aligns with pivot R2 and prior supply. Expect initial rejection or consolidation on first touch.

11. Classical pivots (using 12/18 H/L/C: 4.865/4.365/4.434)

• Pivot P ≈ 4.555; R1 ≈ 4.745; R2 ≈ 5.055; R3 ≈ 5.245; S1 ≈ 4.244; S2 ≈ 4.054.
• Price broke R1, approached the gap toward R2. Next logical magnet is R2 ≈ 5.06.

12. Elliott wave (tactical)

• Likely completed ABC off the 4.37 low: A (4.41→4.68), B (4.68→4.56), C (4.56→4.90). After consolidation, a smaller-degree 5-wave or another ABC could extend toward 4.98–5.08 before a larger pullback.

13. Risk matrix and scenarios (24h)

• Bull case (~60%): Buy-the-dip holds 4.72–4.78, push to 4.95–5.10; wicks can test 5.12–5.15 if momentum/volume expands.
• Base case (~30%): Range 4.70–4.95 consolidation; next impulse deferred to the following session.
• Bear case (~10%): Rejection accelerates, slicing through 4.70 to retest 4.62; if that fails, a liquidity sweep into 4.43–4.37 before stabilizing.

14. Strategy synthesis and execution plan

• Bias: Tactical long (countertrend within macro downtrend). Aim to capture the mean-reversion leg into the first resistance cluster.
• Entry: Prefer limit buy on pullback into 4.74–4.78 (value/POC and former R1 now support). Avoid chasing into 4.88–4.90 due to proximity to R2/Fib 38.2%.
• Profit-taking: Primary target 5.05–5.10 (Pivot R2/Fib 38.2%). Secondary extension 5.15–5.20 if momentum/volume surprise to the upside.
• Risk management (strongly recommended though not requested): Protective stop below 4.62 (beneath intraday swing and daily structure). That yields approx R:R ~1.7–2.2 targeting 5.08–5.15 from a 4.76 entry.

15. What would invalidate

• A decisive hourly close below 4.62 and sustained trade under VWAP (4.63) would negate the intraday bullish structure and shift bias back to sell-the-rips toward 4.43–4.37.

24-hour price expectation

• Expected path: Dip to 4.74–4.78 → attempt to break 4.90 → test 4.98–5.08 → stall/consolidate below 5.15. Range projection: 4.70–5.12 (tails 4.62–5.20 possible).

Decision

• Given the confluence (VWAP support, intraday uptrend, pivot/R2 magnet, Fib alignment), a tactical Buy on pullback offers the best asymmetry for the next 24 hours.