INJ on the Brink: Short the Weak Bounce Before a Final Lows Flush

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish drift with a likely retest/sweep of 4.43 support; high-probability sell-the-rip environment. Base case sees a fade from 4.56–4.60 into 4.40–4.43. Tail risk: brief flush toward 4.30 if 4.37 gives way. Less likely: sustained reclaim above 4.62 that could extend to 4.76.
• Trade idea: Short into a bounce (4.56–4.60 supply), target 4.39–4.43 demand. Use a tight invalidation above 4.66–4.70.

Step-by-step technical dissection

1. Multi-timeframe trend structure (Market Structure, MAs, Channels)

• Daily trend: Strong downtrend from Oct crash (~13 → ~8) followed by persistent lower highs/lows to ~4.43. Price is below the 20/50-day averages. 20D SMA ≈ 5.28 (estimated from last 20 closes), 50D SMA ≈ mid-6s. Current 4.51 is well below both → clear bearish trend regime.
• Sequence of lower highs: 4.90 (Dec 19) → 4.83 (Dec 20) → 4.60 intraday today → 4.51 close. Sellers defending progressively lower levels; rallies are sold.
• Descending channel: The bounce from 4.43 to 4.90 resembles a bear-flag countertrend rally; failure back beneath mid-flag suggests continuation lower.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (Horizontal levels, Volume memory, Liquidity)

• Immediate support: 4.43 (Dec 18 close), with 4.37 intraday swing area from Dec 18’s wick; below that, an air pocket could accelerate toward 4.30–4.28.
• Intraday resistance: 4.56–4.60 (today’s supply where the bounce failed twice 17:00–19:00), then 4.76 pivot (Dec 20), then 4.83/4.90 swing highs.
• Volume context: Big distribution on the way down (Dec 10–18) followed by declining volumes the last 2–3 days; bounces occur on lighter volume than sell legs → rallies lack sponsorship.

3. Momentum/oscillators (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): Heavily pressure on downside with many red candles since Dec 10; RSI hovering near low-30s (oversold edge). In a trend regime, oversold can persist; slight bullish divergences would need confirmation (none confirmed yet at daily close).
• MACD (12/26/9): Below zero with negative histogram. A minor histogram contraction after Dec 18 bounce stalled; momentum has turned down again today → re-expansion of downside momentum likely if 4.50 breaks.
• Stochastic: Rolled over from midline after the 4.90 pop; points lower, consistent with sell-the-rip.

4. Volatility and ranges (ATR, Bollinger)

• ATR(14) daily: ~0.30–0.35 range, implying an expected 24h move of ~±0.30–0.35 from current. That brackets 4.16–4.86 under normal conditions.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~5.28, lower band estimated ~4.38, upper ~6.18. Price is hugging the lower band area (4.43–4.52). Persistent band-walk favors trend continuation with occasional mean-reversion pops capped near 4.60–4.76.

5. Intraday structure (1H) and pivots

• Today’s 1H path: Early sell to 4.52 → bounce to 4.60 → lower high rejection → fade to 4.51 into the session end. Lower highs/lows intraday; sellers active on strength.
• Classical daily pivots (using today’s H≈4.60, L≈4.51, C≈4.512):
  • Pivot P ≈ 4.541
  • R1 ≈ 4.572, R2 ≈ 4.631
  • S1 ≈ 4.482, S2 ≈ 4.451 Confluence: R1/R2 align with the 4.56–4.63 supply zone; S1/S2 align with 4.48/4.45 ahead of 4.43. Clean map for fade setups.

6. Fibonacci context

• Measuring the Dec 18 low (4.434) → Dec 19 high (4.900): range ≈ 0.466. Price is now ~4.51, i.e., it has retraced ~88%+ of that bounce → failed rally. Typical bear continuation structure. A stop run below 4.43 is common before a more durable countertrend bounce.

7. Ichimoku lens (daily)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan and Kijun above price and sloping down; Chikou beneath price. Full bearish stack → trend-following shorts favored until Kijun (~5.4–5.6 region) is reclaimed.

8. VWAP/AVWAP

• Anchored VWAP from the Dec 18 low likely sits near 4.60–4.62 given the bounce day volume. Price below anchored VWAP → supply dominates post-bounce; rallies to VWAP attract sellers.

9. Wyckoff/Elliott structure

• Wyckoff: Post-crash markdown continued. 4.43 looked like a potential Selling Climax (SC) with Automatic Rally (AR) to 4.90, now in Secondary Test (ST) back near prior lows. Typical behavior is a probe marginally below SC to trigger stops (spring/sweep) before a better bounce. Not guaranteed; could also transition straight to markdown continuation if demand is absent.
• Elliott sketch: From mid-Dec, a 5-wave micro leg down is plausible with wave 5 unfinished. A marginal new low below 4.43 would complete a local impulse, then corrective rebound.

10. Candles and pattern read

• Last four daily candles: green (4.43→4.83), small doji-ish (4.83→4.76), red close near low today (4.76→4.51). That roll-over negates the bounce.
• 1H shows rejection wicks in 4.57–4.60 and closes drifting down → clean short trigger zone.

11. Probability-weighted scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Price pops into 4.56–4.60, sellers defend, fade back through 4.50, test 4.45–4.43. Possible liquidity sweep to 4.37; settle 4.40–4.48.
• Bear extension (≈25%): Weak/none bounce; breaks 4.50 early, accelerates to 4.37–4.30 amid thin liquidity; intraday capitulative wick; rebounds to close around 4.38–4.44.
• Bull surprise (≈15%): Strong reclaim through 4.60, acceptance above 4.63 (R2) and anchored VWAP; push to 4.72–4.76. Needs volume expansion and higher-low structure on 1H; currently lacking.

12. Confluence toward a short

• Trend: Down on all observed frames; price under 20/50D MAs and under AVWAP from the recent low.
• Momentum: MACD negative, RSI not diverging decisively; stochastic pointing down.
• Levels: Tight sell zone at 4.56–4.60 with pivot R1/R2 confluence and clear invalidation above ~4.66–4.70.
• Risk/Reward: Short 4.56 with TP 4.39 yields ~0.17 vs. 0.10–0.14 risk if stop 4.66–4.70 (1.2–1.7R base; extends to 2–3R if sweep to 4.30).

Risk management and execution notes

• Entry: Use a sell-limit between 4.56 and 4.60; if not filled and 4.50 breaks with momentum, a secondary plan is a stop-entry short on breakdown with tighter stop.
• Invalidation: Close above 4.66 (above R2 and intraday supply) negates the immediate short thesis; next resistance 4.76.
• Profit-taking: Scale 50% around 4.45–4.43; leave a runner for 4.37/4.32 if momentum accelerates.

Bottom line

• Trend-following shorts remain favored. The optimal play is to fade a bounce into 4.56–4.60 with a target near prior support 4.39–4.43, acknowledging a meaningful risk of a brief stop-run below 4.43 before any sturdier rebound attempt.