INJ poised for an oversold mean‑reversion bounce: buying the 4.58 pivot for a run toward 4.83

Executive summary and 24h path

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish mean‑reversion from an oversold, compression regime. Expect an initial probe into 4.56–4.58 support, then a bounce toward 4.71–4.75; a break/hold above 4.75 opens 4.82–4.87. Range estimate: 4.52–4.86. Invalidation on a decisive daily close <4.43.
• Trade stance: Buy the dip near 4.58 with targets toward 4.83 (prior swing supply) within 24h if momentum confirms above 4.72–4.75.

Context and structure (multi‑timeframe)

• Higher time frame (Daily/Weekly): Clear primary downtrend since early November; price below 20/50‑day MAs and under the Ichimoku cloud. However, the last week shows selling exhaustion: lower lows with shrinking real bodies and lower volume, plus a big reversal candle on 12/19 after a new low on 12/18.
• Intermediate (Daily last 20 sessions): Descending channel with a possible falling‑wedge character. Price tagged/closed near the lower Bollinger/Keltner bands several times (mean‑reversion setup). Current close ~4.59 is beneath the 20‑SMA (~5.29), so trend risk persists, but reversion potential is elevated.
• Intraday (Hourly 12/22): Constructive basing attempt early session (push to ~4.71–4.75), fade into 19:00 flush (4.58), then stabilization around 4.59–4.61. Micro lower high sequence intact unless reclaimed >4.72–4.75, but momentum loss on the downside suggests a bounce is likely first.

Trend and moving averages

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 5.29 (down sloping). Price at 4.59 is ~13% below the mean → bearish trend but stretched; mean‑reversion odds increase.
• 50‑day SMA (ballpark) well above price, reinforcing primary downtrend; rallies into 5.3–5.8 likely face supply.
• EMAs (intraday): On the hour, price slightly below 20/50‑EMA cluster after the 19:00 dip; intraday reclaim of 4.70–4.72 (EMA confluence and prior micro top) is the trigger for momentum follow‑through.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 22 (derived from the last 14 closes), deeply oversold. Historically favors a bounce toward the 30–40 band even within a downtrend.
• Hourly RSI: Sold off into 19:00, then stabilized around mid‑30s/40s on the rebound candles—typical pattern before a rotation to test intraday resistance.
• Stochastic (Daily): In the oversold zone with a tentative curl; on Hourly, crossing up from oversold zone—supports short‑term upside attempt.
• MACD (Daily): Negative, but histogram contraction consistent with lessening downside momentum; possible bullish divergence building vs the 12/18–12/21 lows. On Hourly, a shallow bullish cross is plausible on a push through 4.70–4.72.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Mid ≈ 5.29; lower band likely ~4.30–4.40. Price recently pierced/touched the lower band (12/18 close 4.43), then snapped back (12/19). Current trade near the lower half suggests risk skewed to mean‑reversion.
• Keltner Channels (ATR‑based): Price oscillating near/below the lower envelope—another mean‑reversion cue.
• ATR(14) Daily estimate ≈ 0.30–0.35. A 24h move of 6–8% is plausible; targeting 4.83 from 4.58 fits within one ATR.

Market profile, volume, and order flow proxies

• Volume trend: Strong sell climaxes earlier in the decline with declining volume into the latest lows—typical exhaustion behavior. 12/19 rebound had respectable participation; last 48h quieter and compressive, often preceding a directional pop.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative): OBV has flattened relative to price making marginal new lows—non‑confirmation of further downside pressure.
• Wicks and absorption: Repeated testing of 4.55–4.62 with tails suggests passive buyers absorbing. Conversely, 4.72–4.75 shows supply overhead from earlier intraday highs.

Support and resistance map

• Nearby supports: 4.56–4.58 (intraday shelf, today’s pivot region), 4.50–4.52 (micro shelf), 4.43 (12/18 extreme low, key invalidation).
• Nearby resistances: 4.70–4.75 (intraday supply cluster, R1), 4.83 (12/19 close/mini swing high), 4.97–5.02 (Fib 38.2% of 5.83→4.43 downleg and round number), 5.16–5.22 (prior breakdown zone), 5.30–5.33 (Fib 61.8% / 20‑SMA vicinity).

Pivot points (Classic) using 12/21 (H 4.7658, L 4.5077, C 4.5582)

• P ≈ 4.6106; R1 ≈ 4.7135; S1 ≈ 4.4554; R2 ≈ 4.8687; S2 ≈ 4.3525; R3 ≈ 4.9716; S3 ≈ 4.1973.
• Today’s session respected R1 to the tick (4.713–4.716 zone) before fading, then found balance around P (4.61) and slightly below—classic pivot magnet day, supportive of reversion toward R1 on next impulse.

Fibonacci analysis (last impulsive down leg)

• Swing: 5.832 (12/9) → 4.434 (12/18); Δ = 1.398.
• Retrace targets: 38.2% = 4.968, 50% = 5.133, 61.8% = 5.302.
• First logical reversion waypoint = 4.83–4.97; beyond 24h, 5.13–5.30 possible only if momentum/flow materially improves.

Ichimoku (Daily and Hourly)

• Daily: Price under cloud; Tenkan < Kijun (bearish), Lagging span below price/cloud—downtrend regime. But Tenkan is near price; a mean‑reversion bounce typically tests Tenkan/Kijun first.
• Hourly: Price slipped below cloud on the 19:00 dump; re‑entry into/above cloud occurs around 4.70–4.72. That is the intraday go/no‑go area.

ADX/DMI (Daily)

• ADX elevated and rising through recent sessions (trend strength up) while –DI > +DI; however, ADX tends to peak near exhaustion and precede a reversion phase. Combined with RSI 22, probability of a counter‑trend bounce increases.

Parabolic SAR

• Daily SAR likely above price (bearish). Hourly SAR flip is likely on a move through ~4.70–4.72, adding to a squeeze dynamic if triggered.

Regression channel and z‑score

• A 20‑session linear regression channel slopes down; current price is ~1–1.5 standard deviations below the midline—typical reversion zone. Targeting midline re‑touch suggests 4.80–4.90 over the next one to two sessions.

Candlestick and pattern reads

• 12/18: Long lower shadow into 4.43 (selling climax). 12/19: Strong bullish candle reclaiming much of the loss—a classic two‑bar potential swing low. 12/20–12/21 compressed; 12/22 intraday doji‑like behavior near support indicates indecision and potential turn when combined with oversold oscillators.
• Pattern: Descending channel/falling wedge characteristics; a break/hold above 4.75 would validate a wedge breakout attempt toward 4.83–4.97.

VWAP and intraday structure

• Session VWAP (approx) sat near 4.68–4.70 through the US morning; price is slightly below into the close. Reclaiming/rejecting VWAP typically defines the next 4–8h path. Expect a VWAP test; if reclaimed, late‑session/Asia squeeze to R1 (4.71–4.75) is likely.

DeMark/Sequential flavor (qualitative)

• The hour preceding 19:00 printed a string of lower closes culminating in a flush, consistent with TD‑style downside exhaustion. Post‑exhaustion stabilization around the pivot supports a bounce setup.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• The decline from 11/9 highs through 12/18 can be labeled as a completed five‑wave sequence with an extended fifth into 4.43. Current action looks corrective (A‑B‑C) with A up (12/19), B pullback (12/20–12/22), setting up C toward 4.83–4.97.

Risk management and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (55%): Early dip tests 4.56–4.58; buyers defend; push through 4.70–4.72 leads to 4.75, then 4.82–4.86. Close near 4.80–4.84.
• Bear case (25%): Failure to reclaim 4.70; drift lower through 4.56; weak liquidity slice to 4.50–4.52. Only if 4.43 breaks on volume does trend accelerate; probability lower in next 24h given exhaustion signals.
• Bull extension (20%): Swift reclaim of VWAP and 4.75 triggers a squeeze toward R2/0.382 Fib at 4.86–4.97.

Why Buy (Long) here despite the broader downtrend

• Oversold daily momentum (RSI ~22) + contraction of daily MACD histogram + repeated lower‑band tags typically precede 1–2 ATR mean‑reversion bounces.
• Declining sell volume into lower lows and intraday tails near 4.56–4.58 show absorption—buyers are stepping in.
• Clean, well‑defined invalidation (4.43) enables favorable risk/reward: risk ~0.13–0.15 to target ~0.25–0.28 (RR ≈ 1.7–2.1) for the 24h window.

Execution plan

• Entry: Staggered limit buy near 4.58 (pivot region); allowance to add at 4.55 if swept.
• Confirmation: Momentum add only on reclaim/hold above 4.72–4.75 (hourly close), where cloud/VWAP/R1 cluster sits.
• Target: 4.83 (prior swing supply, just below R2 window). Ambitious extension 4.86–4.97 if squeeze develops.
• Invalidation (stop idea, not placed in output fields): <4.43 daily close or decisive hourly breakdown below 4.50 with rising volume.

Bottom line

• Expect a mean‑reversion bounce attempt in the next 24 hours from 4.56–4.58 toward 4.71–4.75 and potentially 4.83. The broader trend remains down, so treat it as a tactical long with tight risk discipline and take profits into overhead supply.