1. Holistic Technical Analysis for JasmyCoin (JASMY)

I. Trend and Structure Analysis

1. Medium-Term Trend (3-Month View)

• Primary Structure: Since early May, JASMY experienced two bullish impulse waves (early-May, mid-July) separated by long periods of consolidation and downward action. The latest major swing high was above $0.02 (mid-July), and the current price has retraced to ~$0.0152.
• Recent Trend: After peaking near $0.02 (July 20–22), a sharp pullback occurred, with price dropping to $0.0152. This break below $0.0165 is structurally significant, as it liquidated late buyers and hints at potential further downside or at least a base-building attempt.
• Support & Resistance:
  • Major Resistance: $0.0168–$0.0173, then $0.018–$0.02.
  • Major Support: $0.0145 (June lows), with interim support at $0.0150 and $0.0153.

2. Recent Sessions (Past 48 Hours)

• Price action is compressed, forming a rounded top after failing at $0.0173, with lower highs and lower closes, and a wick down to $0.0151, matching minor support from late June. This hints at a potential short-term base but also shows persistent selling pressure.
• Hourly Candles: Several long lower wicks in the $0.0151–$0.0153 region suggest buyers are absorbing supply here. However, candles close weak, failing to reclaim $0.0157–$0.016.

II. Volume, Momentum & Volatility

1. Volume Analysis

• The July 20–22 surge showed volume climax (over 130M), followed by steady declines in both price and volume.
• Most recent hourly volume is below average except for brief spikes on red candles—a classic sign of distribution and absence of strong buyer conviction.

2. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD)

• RSI (Hourly/Daily): On the daily, RSI peaked above 75 in the July pump but has now reset to the low 40s; the hourly RSI is hovering near 38–45, just above oversold territory—signaling weak, but not exhausted, bearish momentum.
• MACD: Bearish cross confirmed on the 4-hour and daily; no signs of bullish divergence yet. Momentum is negative but decelerating slightly near the current support zone—the downtrend is aging but not reversed.

3. ATR (Average True Range):

• Volatility contracted after the large swing, but current ATR hints at another volatility expansion. Compression around the $0.0151–$0.0154 region could lead to a sharp move soon.

III. Chart Patterns: Structures and Setups

• Descending Triangle (Short-Term, 2-Day Frame): Price is making lower highs and flat lows near $0.0152, a bearish structure. Breakdown probability increases as each retest weakens support.
• Potential Double Bottom: The $0.0151 low matches previous June/July reaction lows, lending some hope for counter-trend bounce, but not yet adequately confirmed.

IV. Supply/Demand Zones and Order Book Psychology

• Heavy absorption at $0.0151–$0.0152 suggests this zone is crucial for bulls to defend. Failure here exposes price to $0.0145, then $0.0138.
• Sellers are camped at $0.0157–$0.016; repeated failures to close above means bulls lack control.

V. EMA/SMA and Trendlines

• Short-term EMAs (8/21/50-period on 1H and 4H): Price is beneath the 8 & 21 EMA on all short frames, a bearish momentum signal. 50 EMA is trending downward, providing dynamic resistance at $0.0157-$0.0162.
• Daily 100/200SMA: The 100SMA sits at ~$0.0168; a move above would be a meaningful reversal, but so far price is below all key moving averages.

VI. Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions

• The major swing low ($0.0134 in June) to swing high ($0.0204 in July) gives Fib retracements:
  • 61.8% retrace: $0.0155 (currently broken to the downside)
  • 78.6% retrace: $0.0146 (next key level)
  • The breakdown of the 61.8% zone is bearish; next support is $0.0146–$0.0145.

VII. Volume Profile and Distribution

• Highest volume nodes sit at $0.016–$0.0168, now acting as resistance. Thin volume below $0.0150 suggests a fast move if $0.0150 breaks.

VIII. Order Flow (Microstructure – Intraday)

• No clear sign of whale accumulation. Local trend is sellers dominating order flow, especially on upticks.
• Failed retests of $0.0157–$0.016 on small volume indicate absence of strong dip buyers.

IX. Sentiment & Cumulative View

• Sentiment is neutral-bearish, with weak bounces, aggressive supply on minor moves up, and no strong positive divergence in momentum.
• Recovery potential: Only if $0.0161 (breakout line of drawn intraday trendline) is reclaimed with force and volume.
• Breakdown risk: High if $0.0151 is breached—(no major support to $0.0146 then $0.0138).

X. Potential Trading Setups (Probabilities)

• Short Bias Favorable: Bearish triangle + EMA+ bearish momentum crossovers, failed bounces, poor volume, and proximity to a key support ready to break.
• Countertrade Bounce: Only worth considering if strong bullish engulfing candle closes above $0.0158 with heavy volume—currently not present.

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FINAL SUMMARY:

• Bias: Bearish—likely another leg down to test $0.0146, $0.0138 unless $0.0158+ is reclaimed with conviction.
• Edge: Favor short/sell entries ideally on retests/rejections of $0.0155–$0.0156 area.

2. Action Plan

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: $0.01544 (wait for minor bounce to EMA cluster/mini-resistance)
• Target/Close Price: $0.01461 (near next Fib/support node, preemptive profit booking before likely bounce zone)

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Risk: Stop-loss recommended just above $0.01585 (above micro-resistance and trendline).