JasmyCoin: Breakout-Retest Setup Targets 0.0175 Within 24 Hours

Summary view

• Bias next 24 hours: Bullish continuation after a clean breakout, with a high-probability retest toward 0.0163–0.0165 followed by a push into 0.0171–0.0176. Best execution: buy the dip into the breakout zone rather than chase.
• Key thesis: Double-bottom base near 0.0149 held; price reclaimed the 20D SMA and 0.382–0.5 Fib cluster, vaulted above R3 pivot intraday on expanding volume, and hourly structure shows an expansion candle followed by a tight bull flag. Momentum is positive but not overextended on the daily RSI, leaving room for an extension.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure

• Daily trend: After the June–July uptrend and early-August correction, JASMY set a higher low at 0.014906 (Aug 19) versus the early-August troughs, forming a double-bottom base. The reclaim of 0.0162–0.0164 flips a prior supply zone to demand, shifting structure from neutral to mildly bullish.
• Hourly structure (Aug 22): A powerful expansion candle 14:00–15:00 UTC launched price from ~0.0150 to ~0.0164 on very high volume, followed by consolidation between ~0.01635–0.01680. That’s a classic breakout-then-flag. Holding above 0.01655 late session indicates buyers absorbing supply.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.01609 (est.): Price 0.01666 trades above the 20D, a near-term bullish bias; room to upper band.
• 50D SMA (est. ~0.0155–0.0158): Price is above the 50D, confirming medium-term trend repair.
• 9/21 EMA (daily, est. ~0.0159/0.0162): Price is above both; short-term momentum re-accelerating.
• 200D (contextual, not computed here) likely below current price given YTD profile; trend bias supportive.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 50–53 (est.): Neutral-to-bullish; significant headroom before overbought.
• Hourly RSI pushed into the 60s–70s on the breakout and is cooling toward midline while price holds higher; classic bullish regime behavior (RSI pulling back faster than price) favoring continuation after brief consolidation.
• MACD (daily): 12/26 EMAs compressing with histogram turning up toward a fresh positive cross after the pullback—early-cycle bullish.
• Stochastic (daily): Rising from mid-zone, not yet overbought—supports more upside.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D) (est. ~0.0013–0.0017): Implies a typical day’s stretch could carry price toward 0.0179 on the upside or back toward ~0.0153 on the downside, though realized volatility is moderating post-spike.
• Today’s move vaulted above daily R3 (see pivots), which often precedes either a flag then continuation or a mean reversion into R2–R3. Given rising volume and structural break, a shallow retest into ~0.0164–0.01655 is favored before the next leg higher.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Basis ~0.01609; upper band est. ~0.0173–0.0174; lower ~0.0148. Price sits in the upper band zone but has not tagged the band—room for an upside tag toward ~0.0173–0.0174. A tag would align with Fib 0.5/0.618 levels (see below).

6. Fibonacci levels (measured move confluence)

• Swing: 8/13 high 0.019169 → 8/19 low 0.014906 (range 0.004263):
  • 0.382 = 0.016535 (reclaimed today)
  • 0.500 = 0.017038 (near-term target)
  • 0.618 = 0.017541 (stretch target, strong confluence)
• Larger swing: 7/23 high 0.020518 → 8/19 low 0.014906:
  • 0.382 ≈ 0.01705 (same as above 0.5 of smaller swing)
  • 0.500 ≈ 0.01771
  • 0.618 ≈ 0.01832
• Takeaway: Clearing and holding 0.01653–0.01705 paves the path toward ~0.0175 and then ~0.0177. Today’s close above 0.01653 strengthens the probability of a 0.0170–0.0175 test in the next session.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (HH+LL)/2 over last 9 ≈ (0.019062 + 0.014613)/2 ≈ 0.01684—sits just above current price and may serve as near resistance at ~0.01684–0.01690.
• Kijun (26) est. around ~0.0162. Price has reclaimed above, a constructive signal.
• Senkou A likely ~0.0165 area; cloud is thin—thin clouds are easier to pierce. A decisive hourly close above ~0.0169 would flip the Ichimoku picture cleanly bullish.

8. Volume and market participation

• Daily volume today already ~57.6M, well above yesterday’s 25.5M—bullish expansion on an up-day.
• Hourly breakout candle at 14:00 UTC printed the session’s heaviest volume, with subsequent hours retaining elevated participation while holding gains—healthy consolidation, not distribution.
• OBV (qualitative) turned up sharply with price; no divergence visible intraday.

9. Pivot points (classic, derived from Aug 21 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 0.015233; R1 ≈ 0.015582; R2 ≈ 0.016202; R3 ≈ 0.016551.
• Price is trading above R3 (0.01666), an “extended” state. Typical playbook: either tight flag then continuation or mean reversion to R2/R3. Given structural break and momentum, a shallow pullback into 0.01655–0.01640 (R3 to breakout shelf) is the high-probability buy zone.

10. Support and resistance map

• Immediate supports: 0.01655 (R3 / intraday shelf), 0.01642–0.01648 (breakout shelf and 14:00 close), 0.01620 (R2 / daily support), 0.01593–0.01585 (prior congestion), 0.01564 (daily), 0.01495 (double-bottom neckline area).
• Immediate resistances: 0.01680–0.01690 (intraday high and Tenkan), 0.01704–0.01710 (0.500 Fib and round), 0.01736–0.01740 (upper BB vicinity), 0.01754–0.01760 (0.618 Fib), 0.0177 (larger 0.5 Fib).

11. Pattern diagnostics and measured moves

• Double-bottom (0.01490–0.01496) with neckline at ~0.0162: measured objective from neckline adds ~0.0013–0.0014 → 0.0175–0.0176—aligns with Fibonacci 0.618 and upper-BB expansion.
• Hourly bull flag: Pole from ~0.0150 to ~0.0164 (~0.0014). A clean break over 0.01680 projects ~0.0182 at the extreme, but the next 24h likely caps near 0.0175–0.0177 given overhead confluence.

12. ADX/DI (qualitative)

• After the recent correction, DI+ is curling up over DI− and ADX is rising from subdued levels—indicative of a young trend phase rather than a late-stage blowoff.

13. VWAP and execution

• Session VWAP (intraday est.) sits near ~0.0161–0.0163 after the early low prints; price is holding above VWAP with shallow pullbacks. Optimal risk-adjusted entry is a limit buy in front of the breakout shelf at ~0.01642 where VWAP catch-up and R3 retest intersect.

14. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• A-B-C correction into 8/19 likely completed wave C near 0.0149. Current advance resembles wave 1 up (8/19–8/20), wave 2 pullback (8/20–8/21), and early wave 3 starting 8/22. A typical wave 3 would challenge 0.0170–0.0175 promptly; failure below 0.0162 would question the count.

15. Risk management and alternate scenarios

• Base case (65%): Retest 0.01642–0.01655, then push to 0.0171–0.0175 within 24h.
• Bull extension (20%): No deep retest; break >0.01690 quickly, tags 0.0174–0.0177.
• Bear mean reversion (15%): Loss of 0.01620 opens 0.01585–0.01565 VWAP/proxy sweep; structure remains intact above 0.0156.
• Suggested protective stop (not required by prompt but prudent): ~0.01602 (below VWAP catch-up and undercut of breakout shelf); risk ~2.4% from 0.01642 for ~6.6% to 0.01750 RR ~2.7:1.

Next 24h price path expectation

• Range: 0.0162–0.01755, with intraday dips likely bought. Momentum breadth and volume expansion favor an upside resolution into the 0.0171–0.0175 band after a modest pullback.

Conclusion

• The confluence of reclaimed MAs, Fib/BB targets, pivot R3 hold, breakout volume, and supportive momentum argues to buy a pullback rather than chase. Aim for a limit near 0.01642 with targets around 0.01750, which aligns with the 0.618 retracement and measured move of the base.