JASMY’s Post-Capitulation Relief Rally: Buy the Dip for a Push Toward 0.0122

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical breakdown for JASMY over the next 24 hours

1. Market regime and structure

• Regime shift: A sharp capitulation on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~0.004881, close ~0.009264) reset the prior slow downtrend. Since then, a V-shaped rebound reclaimed the 0.0100 handle and is now pressing into 0.0110–0.0112 resistance. The short-term regime has flipped to bullish momentum within a still-bearish higher-timeframe context (price beneath key daily MAs).
• Structure: On the hourly, a sequence of higher highs and higher lows has formed since ~0.00956 (2025-10-12 02:00), with steady grind-ups and shallow pullbacks. Intraday supply now sits at 0.0111–0.0114; demand stacked at 0.0104–0.0108 and 0.00995–0.01005.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Supports: 0.01040–0.01055 (prior intraday congestion), 0.01070–0.01085 (38.2% retrace of the 0.01038→0.01112 swing; prior breakout retest), 0.00995–0.01005 (psych round + prior floor), 0.00958 (Sunday’s early low cluster)
• Resistances: 0.01112–0.01120 (current cap; 78.6% retrace of the 10/9→10/10 dump), 0.01136 (R2 pivot; see below), 0.01190–0.01200 (88.6% retrace zone), 0.01218–0.01230 (R3 pivot/MA20 daily region), 0.01245 (daily mid-BB/older supply), 0.01290 (pre-crash high; full retrace)

3. Pivot points (Classic, based on 2025-10-11 H/L/C = 0.010554/0.008984/0.009850)

• P = (H+L+C)/3 = 0.009796
• R1 = 2P − L = 0.010608; S1 = 2P − H = 0.009038
• R2 = P + (H−L) = 0.011366; S2 = P − (H−L) = 0.008226
• R3 = H + 2(P−L) = 0.012178 Interpretation: Price currently trades between R1 and R2; typical path is a probe to R2 (0.01137). If momentum sustains, R3 (0.01218) is a magnet within 24 hours. Pullbacks toward P (0.00980) are less likely barring risk-off shock.

4. Fibonacci mapping

• Major impulse (10/9 high 0.012904 → 10/10 low 0.004881):

  • 61.8% = 0.009839 (reclaimed)
  • 78.6% = 0.011190 (current stall zone)
  • 88.6% ≈ 0.011986; 100% = 0.012904 Interpretation: Hitting 78.6% often prompts a brief consolidation/pullback before attempting 88.6–100%. A controlled dip to ~0.0108–0.0109 is likely before the next leg.

• Intraday swing (10/12 14:00 low 0.010382 → 20:00 high 0.011119): range = 0.000737

  • 38.2% pullback ≈ 0.011119 − 0.000281 ≈ 0.010838
  • 50% ≈ 0.010750; 61.8% ≈ 0.010662 Interpretation: Ideal buy-the-dip zone aligns at 0.01066–0.01084, with strongest confluence near 0.01083–0.01085.

5. Moving averages

• Daily: Price is still below the 20D SMA (est. ~0.0122–0.0124) and well below the 50D (~0.014+). Reversion-to-mean target sits near the 20D mid-band (~0.0122–0.0124) if the bounce persists.
• Hourly: Price riding above rising 20/50-EMA; 20>50 shows short-term bullish alignment. The 200-EMA on H1 likely still above price (lagging from the prior downtrend), but flattening. Pullbacks to the 20/50 EMA cluster (~0.0107–0.0109) should be defended if trend is intact.

6. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (H1): Estimated mid-60s, reflecting bullish momentum but not extreme. Room for one more push higher after a modest dip.
• Stoch (H1): Likely cycling down from overbought; favors a shallow pullback to EMA support before continuation.
• MACD (H1): Positive histogram and signal-line spread but flattening near 0.0111; a brief histogram contraction would align with a reset toward 0.0108–0.0109 before re-expansion.
• Daily MACD: Negative but hooking upward post-capitulation; room to continue mean reversion toward the daily mid-band.

7. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (H1): Bands expanding; price hugging/pressing the upper band near 0.0111—typical trend behavior. Expect band walk to pause for a mid-band retest (~0.0108–0.0109) before next extension.
• Bollinger (Daily): Width expanded sharply after the crash. Middle band near ~0.0123 is a logical 24–48h magnet if momentum holds.
• ATR: Daily ATR(14) likely jumped from ~0.0006–0.0008 to ~0.0014–0.0017 post-crash; H1 ATR ~0.00017–0.00022. A 24h range of ~1.3–1.8% either side of VWAP is typical in calm periods; post-crash we allow ~8–12% swings—hence 0.0104–0.0122 feasible.

8. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud; conversion (Tenkan) likely ~0.0125 and base (Kijun) ~0.0132—room to revert upward toward Tenkan over the next 1–3 days, but cloud remains resistance.
• H1: Price above cloud with rising Span A; Kijun near ~0.0107–0.0108 offers dynamic support. A Kijun retest aligns with the proposed dip-buy zone.

9. Volume/flow context

• Post-crash, volume spikes indicate capitulation and strong responsive buying. Overhead supply is concentrated in 0.0119–0.0125 (prior daily closes and volume nodes). The 0.0113–0.0119 pocket is a lighter-volume area created by the gap-like move; price can traverse it quickly once 0.0112 is cleanly reclaimed.

10. Patterns and micro-structure

• V-shaped recovery with an ascending channel on H1; small-bodied candles near 0.0111 show local equilibrium under resistance. Likely sequence: brief dip to reload buyers (0.0108±) followed by attempt at 0.01136 (R2), and, if momentum persists, extension toward 0.01218 (R3) where larger supply waits.

11. Elliott wave (tactical)

• From the intraday base ~0.01038: wave 1 to ~0.01071, wave 2 to ~0.01055, wave 3 to ~0.01112 (currently consolidating), wave 4 pullback projected to 0.01075–0.01085, wave 5 objective 0.01185–0.0122. Structure invalidated on sustained break below ~0.01038.

12. Statistical mean reversion

• Z-score vs 20D mean: recently deeply negative post-crash; now converging toward −0.5/0 as price approaches the 20D mean (~0.0123). Mean-reversion framework supports a 24h drift upward, with measured pullbacks.

13. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Dip to 0.01075–0.01085, bounce to 0.01136 (R2), then grind to 0.0119 with a late-session push toward 0.01218; close near 0.0117–0.0120.
• Bull case (25%): Shallow pullback only to ~0.01095, fast break of 0.01136 and trend continuation to 0.0122–0.0124; intraday spikes potentially to 0.01245.
• Bear case (20%): Failure to hold 0.0107; slide to 0.0104 and a deeper mean-reversion to 0.0100–0.0101. This would delay the test of the 0.0119–0.0123 supply by 1–2 days.

14. Trade thesis and execution

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within an intraday uptrend aiming for mean-reversion toward the daily mid-band/pivot R3.
• Entry rationale: Confluence of H1 Fib 38.2–61.8% pullback, H1 EMA cluster, Ichimoku Kijun, and prior micro-structure support around 0.01083–0.01085.
• Target rationale: Pivot R3 at 0.012178 aligns with the lower edge of the daily reversion band and a strong historical supply shelf; conservative TP set just at/around that level to capture the move without over-optimizing.
• Risk note (not part of order fields): Invalidation on a decisive break below 0.01038; if one were to place a protective stop, 0.01035–0.01040 would maintain a favorable R:R (~1:2+ from 0.01084 to 0.01218).

15. 24-hour price outlook

• Expected path: 0.0108 retest → 0.01136 (R2) → 0.0119–0.01218 test. Probabilistic range: 0.01035–0.01230.

Conclusion: Favor a tactical long on a controlled pullback with a target near R3/daily mid-band.