JASMY: Post-Crash Mean-Reversion Rally Toward 1.2¢ — Buy the Dip, Target 1.21¢ in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Context: JASMY suffered a flash-crash on 2025-10-10 (intraday low 0.004881, daily close 0.009264) and has since staged a two-day rebound (0.00985 → 0.011012 → 0.011473 now). The current session’s intraday structure (hourly) shows a sequence of higher lows and a breakout to 0.01147 late in the day.
• Bias (next 24h): Bullish mean-reversion continuation into overhead resistance. Expect a dip-buy opportunity toward 0.01125–0.01130 followed by an advance into 0.0118–0.0122.
• Plan in brief: Buy the dip near 0.01130; target 0.01210 within 24h. Invalidation below 0.01085–0.01090.

Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Medium-term downtrend from the July peak (~0.0205) with successive lower highs. Late Sep slid from ~0.014–0.013 zone to sub-0.012 into Oct. The 10/10 capitulation likely marks a local exhaustion of sellers; subsequent two green closes suggest a reflexive mean-reversion phase.
• Hourly trend (10/12–10/13): Constructive; higher lows at ~0.01097 → 0.01106 → 0.01115 with higher highs into 0.01147. Price is riding above intraday moving averages, indicating short-term momentum intact.
• Key supports: 0.01055–0.01060 (pivot P from 10/12), 0.01100/round number, 0.01085–0.01090 (session low cluster; below here breaks the intraday structure). Ultimate line in the sand: 0.00985 (10/11 close) and 0.00926 (10/10 close; crash capitulation zone).
• Key resistances ahead: 0.01158 (Daily R1), 0.01180 (61.8% retrace of 10/06–10/10 swing), 0.01215 (Daily R2), 0.01245–0.01250 (78.6% retrace and prior late-Sep supply), 0.0129–0.0132 (heavy supply cluster; confluence with prior pivot and R3 0.01317).

Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily EMAs/SMA (estimates from closes):
  • 20D EMA ~0.0126–0.0128: price below → trend still broadly bearish but room to mean-revert up to this band.
  • 50D EMA ~0.0145–0.0147: far overhead, reinforces that any rally is corrective until proven otherwise.
  • 200D EMA ~0.016–0.017: secular downtrend context.
• Hourly EMAs: Price sits above the 20/50/200-EMA cluster (~0.01110–0.01125 region) → intraday buyers in control; pullbacks to this zone likely get bought.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Low 30s to low 40s post-crash; rebounding but not overbought → supports further upside before momentum saturation.
• Hourly RSI: Likely 60–65 after the late-session push; mild overextension intraday suggests a brief pullback is probable before the next leg up.
• Stochastics (hourly): Likely near upper band; favors a shallow dip/sideways digestion rather than immediate continuation straight up.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Below zero with contracting negative histogram, indicating bearish momentum waning and a possible bullish crossover in coming sessions if price holds above ~0.011.
• Hourly MACD: Above zero but flattening after the spike; consistent with a buyable dip setup before another momentum push toward 0.0118+.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Post-crash expansion; price moving from lower band toward the middle band (~20SMA near 0.0126–0.0128). Typical mean-reversion target is the mid-band, which aligns with our upside zone over the next 1–3 days.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Price recently tagged/rode upper band near 0.01147; a pullback toward the 20-period mid-band (~0.01125–0.01130) is the higher-probability entry location.
• ATR (daily): Expanded after the crash, implying wide daily ranges (~0.0010–0.0013). A 24h move from 0.01147 to ~0.0121–0.0122 sits comfortably within 1x ATR.

Volume/flow

• Daily: Spike on crash day (92M) and high follow-through volume on the rebound day (Oct 11 ~100M) then moderate on Oct 12 (~56M). This is characteristic of capitulation followed by absorption.
• OBV/accumulation (qualitative): OBV would be stabilizing and likely lifting since 10/10; no evidence of distribution on 10/13 intraday candles.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan (9): Depressed due to extreme low; price has reclaimed above Tenkan.
• Kijun (26): Estimated ~0.0124–0.0126; typical mean-reversion magnet in post-selloff phases.
• Cloud: Price remains below the Kumo; any rally is counter-trend on the daily, capping likely strength near the Kijun/mid-BB in the near term.

Classical pivot points (using 10/12 H/L/C = 0.011139/0.009555/0.011012)

• P = 0.0105687
• R1 = 0.0115824 (very near-term resistance; aligns with intraday 1.272 ext. target)
• R2 = 0.0121527 (stretch target within 24h)
• R3 = 0.0131664 (unlikely in 24h without a fresh catalyst)
• S1 = 0.0099984 (deep pullback unlikely barring risk-off shock)

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing reference: 10/06–10/10 high/low (H ~0.01332; L = 0.009264). Range = 0.004056–0.004096; using provided: 0.01332–0.009264 = 0.004056.
  • 38.2% = 0.01083 (already cleared)
  • 50% = 0.01129–0.01131 (current area; ideal retest buy zone)
  • 61.8% = 0.01180 (first major fib resistance)
  • 78.6% = ~0.01247 (confluence with daily Kijun/BB-mid shortly above)
• Intraday micro swing (10/13): 0.01106 → 0.01147 = 0.00041 range. Extensions:
  • 1.272 ≈ 0.01158 (matches R1)
  • 1.618 ≈ 0.01174 (pre-12c supply pocket)

VWAP and mean reversion

• Anchored from 10/10 crash likely sits below current price; intraday price holding above session VWAP supports a buy-the-dip approach. Reversions to VWAP/EMA clusters (~0.01120–0.01130) are probable bounce points.

Keltner/Donchian/Channels

• Keltner (hourly): Price riding upper band → pulls to EMA midline (0.01125ish) commonly occur before next leg.
• Donchian (daily): 20D lower channel expanded to the crash low; rebound toward mid-range is typical after such expansions.
• Linear regression channel (hourly): Up-sloping since 10/12; price near upper boundary at 0.01145–0.01150; expect mean reversion to channel median before continuation.

Candlestick/Pattern read

• Daily: Two consecutive green days off capitulation close; classic V-bounce setup aiming into the first real supply at 0.0118–0.0122.
• Hourly: Minor bull flag broke higher in the 19:00–20:00 blocks; measured move points 0.0116–0.0117, with tail risk to 0.0118–0.0119 on momentum follow-through.

ADX/Trend strength (daily)

• Post-crash, ADX likely elevated with -DI dominant but compressing; signals trend exhaustion of the previous down leg and scope for counter-trend rally.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Small dip to 0.01125–0.01135, then rally to 0.01158–0.01180; if volume expands on breakout over R1, extension to 0.01195–0.01215 (R2) possible. Close near 0.0117–0.0120.
• Pullback case (30%): Deeper retest to 0.01100–0.01110 (session VWAP/200-EMA hourly). As long as 0.01085–0.01090 holds, structure remains constructive; recovery back to 0.0115–0.0117 into close.
• Bear surprise (10%): Risk-off spill takes price back under 0.01085; would invalidate the long setup and re-open 0.0100–0.0102; low probability absent fresh negative catalyst.

Risk management and execution

• Entry: 0.01130 (optimal dip-buy near 50% retrace and intraday EMA/VWAP confluence). If price doesn’t pull back, a momentum add-on above 0.01158 (R1) is viable but carries worse R:R.
• Stop (analysis/invalidation): 0.01085 (below intraday higher-low cluster and the 10/13 00:00 hour low 0.010859). Risk ≈ 0.00045.
• Target (next 24h): 0.01210 (between Fib 61.8% 0.01180 and R2 0.01215; front-runs 0.01215 and the dense 0.0122 supply).
• Reward ≈ 0.00080; R:R ≈ 1.8:1. Acceptable given the post-capitulation backdrop and nearby confluences.

Confluences supporting the long

• Mean-reversion target zone aligns across tools: Daily BB mid, Ichimoku Kijun, Fib 61.8–78.6%, Classic Pivot R2 band.
• Intraday structure: Higher highs/lows, price above 20/50/200 EMA on hourly, and above session VWAP.
• Volume signature: Capitulation → absorption → constructive follow-through, not distribution.

What would change my mind?

• A decisive hourly close below 0.01085 with rising sell volume; loss of structure would shift bias to a retest of 0.0100 and delay the mean-reversion.

24-hour path projection (illustrative)

• Asia open: Mild pullback toward 0.01125–0.01135.
• Europe: Attempt toward 0.01158 (R1); pause or brief rejection.
• US session: If R1 breaks on volume, impulse to 0.01174–0.01190; wicks into 0.01205–0.01215 possible before settling back near 0.0118–0.0120.

Bottom line

• The post-crash context favors a controlled, buy-the-dip mean-reversion toward 1.2¢ over the next 24 hours. Optimal risk-adjusted entry is on a pullback, not at the immediate highs.