Sell the Rip: JASMY’s Bear Flag Signals a Push to the $0.0081–$0.0083 Pocket

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for JasmyCoin (JASMY)

Context and data used

• Current price: $0.008464826 (11:06 UTC, 2025-11-04)
• Daily OHLC from Aug–Nov shows a strong top in mid-August near $0.019, a steady decline through September, a sharp flash-crash on Oct 10, a lower high in late October near $0.0109–$0.0110, then renewed weakness into Nov 3–4.
• Intraday (hourly) last 24–36h: bounce to ~$0.00916 on Nov 3 17:00 UTC, then lower highs, lower lows into today with a local low ~$0.00839 and last trade ~$0.00846.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: clear downtrend of lower highs/lows since mid-October. The late-Oct swing high ($0.0109) failed below prior swing highs ($0.0113 on Oct 13), confirming a trend of compression and distribution. The new breakdown on Nov 3 (close $0.00903) took out the late-Oct base ($0.0097–$0.0100), opening the next leg down.
• Hourly structure (past 24h): sequence of lower highs 0.00916 → 0.00913 → 0.00906 → 0.00895/0.00890. Price is riding beneath a descending intraday trendline; minor bear flags formed on Nov 3 20:00–22:00 and again Nov 4 06:00–10:00.
• Wyckoff lens: Distribution in late Oct (upthrusts into ~$0.0107–$0.0110) followed by markdown. Current action resembles a weak rally (automatic rally/secondary test) inside markdown. Conclusion: Trend is bearish across daily and intraday.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20-day EMA/SMA (estimated): around $0.0102–$0.0105 given closes in the $0.010–$0.013 range through Oct. Price ($0.00846) is well below: bearish.
• Daily 50-day SMA: estimated ~$0.0130–$0.0140 from Aug–Sep pricing; price far below: bearish.
• Hourly 20/50 EMAs: rolling down; price persistently below hourly 20EMA and 50EMA with rallies capped near those EMAs (notably 09:00–11:00 UTC). Classic “sell-the-rip” environment. Conclusion: MA stack is bearish; rallies likely sold.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: low-to-mid 30s (oversold territory but not extreme). Prior bounces from similar levels were brief; in downtrends, RSI can “ride” 20–40.
• Hourly RSI(14): showed slight bullish divergence around 07:00–10:00 UTC (price made marginal lower low near 0.00837 while RSI didn’t make fresh lows). That supports a potential small relief bounce toward resistance (0.0089–0.0090), but the larger trend remains down.
• MACD daily: below zero with negative histogram since mid-Oct; histogram contraction today suggests downside momentum slowing, but no bullish cross yet. Hourly MACD shows attempts to curl up but repeatedly rejected near zero line. Conclusion: Minor scope for an intraday bounce; higher timeframe momentum remains bearish.

4. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ranges have expanded since the Oct 10 event. Recent daily ATR(14) rough estimate: $0.0007–$0.0010 (e.g., Nov 3 range ~0.00135; today’s intraday range so far ~0.00079). A further 4–6% move in 24h is plausible.
• Expectation: move toward $0.0081–$0.0083 if breakdown resumes, with intraday spikes to ~$0.0089 possible on relief rallies.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily bands widening with price tracking the lower band since late Oct (“band walk” typical of strong downtrends). Mid-band (20SMA) ~ $0.0103 (est), upper band well above current. Price is currently at/just below the lower band, implying:
  • Mean-reversion risk: small bounces toward $0.0089–$0.0092 are possible.
  • But in a trending environment, lower-band rides often continue. Conclusion: Bias bearish with brief mean-reversion pops.

6. Ichimoku Cloud

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Chikou span below price and cloud. All four core signals bearish. Flat Kijun likely around ~$0.0100–$0.0103 area, which also aligns with failed retests late Oct.
• Intraday: price remains below cloud; any bounce into the hourly cloud/top near $0.0089–$0.0091 likely faces rejection. Conclusion: Aligns with “sell rallies” tactic.

7. Volume and flow

• Daily volume: Distribution characteristics post-flash crash—down candles on heavier volume; up days on lighter volume. Nov 3 selloff had elevated volume. Today’s bounce attempts show mediocre volumes vs. prior sells; suggests lack of committed dip buyers.
• OBV/AD (conceptual): trending down since mid-Oct, confirming price trend.
• Volume profile (Aug–Nov): Visible high-volume nodes around $0.0102–$0.0108 and $0.0096–$0.0099. Below $0.0090, the profile looks thinner until ~$0.0082–$0.0083, then again near $0.0080, implying air pockets where price can move quickly. Conclusion: Below $0.0090, liquidity is lighter; a push through $0.00838–$0.00840 can accelerate toward $0.0081–$0.0082.

8. Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance: $0.00890–$0.00905 (hourly LH cluster; lower Bollinger/EMA confluence intraday). Above that: $0.00935–$0.00940 (stronger; breakdown pivot), then $0.00970–$0.01000 (failed base), and $0.0103–$0.0106 (daily 20EMA/BB mid / Kijun zone).
• Immediate support: $0.00838–$0.00840 (today’s low/mini shelf). Below: $0.00820–$0.00825 (volume pocket) and $0.00800 (round-number magnet, prior reaction area). If panic resumes, $0.0076–$0.0078 is next. Conclusion: Best R:R for shorts occurs on a bounce into $0.0089–$0.0090 with stops above $0.00935 and targets ~$0.00805–$0.00825.

9. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing: Oct 26 high ~$0.01094 to Nov 3 low ~$0.00903.
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ $0.00956; 50% ≈ $0.0100; 61.8% ≈ $0.01047. Price failed multiple times below the 38.2–50% zone in late Oct, reinforcing bearish control.
• Current downswing (micro): Nov 3 LH ~$0.00916 to today’s low ~$0.00839. A bounce to 50–61.8% retrace = ~$0.00878–$0.00893 aligns with the identified sell zone.
• Extensions: A 1.272–1.618 extension of the micro swing points to ~$0.00820–$0.00800. Conclusion: Fibs reinforce: sell near $0.0089 with targets $0.0081–$0.0082.

10. Patterns and formations

• Descending channel (hourly): trendline resistance intersects ~$0.00890–$0.00900 across the next several candles; a tag would be a technical short trigger.
• Bear flag: Nov 4 06:00–10:00 consolidation looks flag-like; a breakdown under $0.00840 projects toward ~$0.0081.
• Candlesticks: Mostly small-bodied continuation bars; no strong reversal patterns near the lows. Conclusion: Pattern bias favors continuation after potential minor backtest.

11. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Today’s session VWAP (approx): slightly above current price earlier in the day (~$0.0087–$0.0088), with price trading beneath—intraday sellers in control.
• Anchored VWAP from Nov 3 sell impulse (15:00–17:00 UTC) likely sits near $0.0089–$0.0090. Expect supply there on test. Conclusion: $0.0089–$0.0090 = confluence of VWAP-based selling pressure.

12. Risk management and scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Minor bounce into $0.00885–$0.00900 sells off; price fades to $0.00820–$0.00830 and potentially wicks toward $0.00805–$0.00810 before stabilizing.
• Mean-reversion squeeze (25%): Push through $0.00905 toward $0.00935–$0.00940. Above $0.00940, squeeze risk to $0.00970–$0.01000 increases (invalidates near-term short thesis).
• Chop (15%): Range $0.00840–$0.00890 without resolution.

13. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Sell rallies in a dominant downtrend; exploit the high-probability rejection zone at $0.0089–$0.0090.
• Entry: Short via limit into $0.00898 (top of micro-retracement zone and near intraday VWAP/cloud edge).
• Invalidation for planning purposes (not executed here): sustained trade > $0.00935–$0.00940 (close above hourly structure), or a daily close back above ~$0.00970 would fully negate the near-term bearish continuation.
• Take-profit logic: Scale objectives $0.00825 (partial) and $0.00805 (primary). These sit above/before a likely liquidity magnet at $0.00800 to avoid missing fills.

14. Time-based expectation

• The breakdown leg, if triggered, should materialize within 8–20 hours post-entry, consistent with recent impulse/corrective timing observed since Nov 3.

Summary forecast for next 24 hours

• Expectation: A relief bounce toward $0.0089–$0.0090 to encounter supply and resolve into a push down toward $0.0081–$0.0083. Overall directional bias: bearish continuation.

Note: Crypto is volatile. Position sizing and a hard stop (for example above $0.00940) are essential even with high-confluence setups.